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La Liga
Alaves
1–2Finished
Atletico Madrid
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 15:15 BST

Alaves v Atletico Madrid match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 10 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 23%Alaves win
  • 26%Draw
  • 51%Atletico Madrid win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

AlavesAlaves

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid

Last 5: 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Alaves won 18 of 34 matches in which they scored first, since 18 Oct 2024.
  • La Liga, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 246 of 310.
  • Atletico Madrid won 4 of the last 8 meetings.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 8 of Atletico Madrid's last 10 away league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

8 meetings: Alaves 2, draws 2, Atletico Madrid 4

Goals: Alaves 7, Atletico Madrid 10

DateMatchScore
18 Jan 2026Atletico Madrid v Alaves1–0
30 Aug 2025Alaves v Atletico Madrid1–1
3 May 2025Alaves v Atletico Madrid0–0
23 Nov 2024Atletico Madrid v Alaves2–1
21 Apr 2024Alaves v Atletico Madrid2–0
29 Oct 2023Atletico Madrid v Alaves2–1
2 Apr 2022Atletico Madrid v Alaves4–1
25 Sep 2021Alaves v Atletico Madrid1–0

Home and away

Alaves

Alaves at home

Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost

  • LostValencia15 Sep 20260–1
  • WonOsasuna6 Sep 20265–2
  • WonVillarreal28 Aug 20261–0
  • WonGetafe15 Aug 20263–0
  • LostRayo Vallecano23 May 20261–2

Alaves: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
18 scored, 13 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid away

Last 5: 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost

  • WonReal Sociedad13 Sep 20263–0
  • LostLiverpoolUEFA Champions League9 Sep 20261–2
  • LostAthletic Club5 Sep 20260–3
  • WonSevilla29 Aug 20263–1
  • LostVillarreal24 May 20261–5

Atletico Madrid: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
17 scored, 18 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
8 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Alaves
Last match
21 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Athletic Club · La Liga
Next match
8 days after18 Oct 2026 · v Celta Vigo · La Liga
Atletico Madrid
Last match
20 days before20 Sep 2026 · v Real Madrid · La Liga
Next match
3 days after13 Oct 2026 · v Manchester United · UEFA Champions League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 18 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Alaves

ScoreAlavesLeague sides
Scored first18 won, 9 drawn, 7 lost in 34 matches752 won, 243 drawn, 143 lost in 1138 matches
Conceded first3 won, 11 drawn, 23 lost in 37 matches143 won, 243 drawn, 752 lost in 1138 matches
Level at half-time9 won, 14 drawn, 16 lost in 39 matches340 won, 366 drawn, 340 lost in 1046 matches
Level after 60 minutes9 won, 12 drawn, 13 lost in 34 matches261 won, 374 drawn, 261 lost in 896 matches
Level after 70 minutes7 won, 14 drawn, 11 lost in 32 matches204 won, 412 drawn, 204 lost in 820 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes18 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost in 22 matches407 won, 87 drawn, 12 lost in 506 matches
Level after 80 minutes1 won, 14 drawn, 7 lost in 22 matches150 won, 444 drawn, 150 lost in 744 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes0 won, 5 drawn, 17 lost in 22 matches12 won, 87 drawn, 407 lost in 506 matches
Level after 15 minutes16 won, 13 drawn, 23 lost in 52 matches636 won, 480 drawn, 636 lost in 1752 matches
Level after 30 minutes13 won, 14 drawn, 19 lost in 46 matches469 won, 416 drawn, 469 lost in 1354 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreAlavesLeague sides
All matches21 scored, 30 conceded (74)782 scored, 782 conceded (2420)
When leading after 75 minutes3 scored, 10 conceded (21)278 scored, 272 conceded (821)
When level after 75 minutes11 scored, 14 conceded (30)232 scored, 232 conceded (778)
When trailing after 75 minutes7 scored, 6 conceded (23)272 scored, 278 conceded (821)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 39 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 20(league sides: 1,278 times, within 15 minutes 211, by full time 597)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

AlavesAtletico Madrid
74Since 18 Oct 2024Matches with xG74Since 20 Oct 2024
88.64xG for123.91
82Goals scored133
90.68xG against81.57
95Goals conceded76

Alaves

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Alaves: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
19 Sep 2026at Athletic Club0.051.620–0
15 Sep 2026v Valencia1.050.650–1
12 Sep 2026at Racing Santander1.982.011–2
6 Sep 2026v Osasuna1.201.645–2
28 Aug 2026v Villarreal0.811.401–0
20 Aug 2026at Rayo Vallecano2.000.421–1
15 Aug 2026v Getafe1.930.243–0
23 May 2026v Rayo Vallecano1.631.341–2
17 May 2026at Oviedo1.460.451–0
13 May 2026v Barcelona0.660.591–0

Atletico Madrid

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Atletico Madrid: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
20 Sep 2026v Real Madrid2.350.302–1
16 Sep 2026v Osasuna3.990.484–0
13 Sep 2026at Real Sociedad2.050.273–0
5 Sep 2026at Athletic Club1.021.410–3
29 Aug 2026at Sevilla0.930.903–1
23 Aug 2026v Villarreal0.783.602–2
19 Aug 2026v Malaga0.920.152–0
24 May 2026at Villarreal1.162.481–5
17 May 2026v Girona1.972.171–0
12 May 2026at Osasuna1.562.302–1

This league season

La Liga matches since 15 Aug 2026.

AlavesAtletico Madrid
7 of 7Matches with xG7 of 7
11Points in those matches16
10.26xPts12.75
9.02xG for12.04
7.98xG against7.11

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Alaves and Atletico Madrid

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • AlavesAlavesF. Garces (Suspended) · V. Koski (Muscle Injury) · M. Rodriguez (Ankle Injury)
  • Atletico MadridAtletico MadridR. Mendoza (Inactive) · O. Vargas (Inactive)

Published 10 Oct 2026, 04:48 BST · not changed since

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