Alaves v Malaga match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Fri 23 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Alaves are favoured to beat Malaga at home, with the model giving them a 56% win chance. The hosts are projected to dominate expected goals (1.74 to 0.96), though both teams have struggled recently with minimal wins in their last five games.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 56%Alaves win
- 25%Draw
- 19%Malaga win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
AlavesLast 5: no wins, 1 draw, 4 defeats
MalagaLast 5: no wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Alaves won 18 of 33 matches in which they scored first, since 26 Oct 2024.
- La Liga, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 251 of 316.
- Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Alaves's last 10 home league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
2 meetings: Alaves 1, draws 0, Malaga 1
Goals: Alaves 2, Malaga 2
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 20 May 2023 | Alaves v MalagaSegunda División | 2–1 |
| 18 Dec 2022 | Malaga v AlavesSegunda División | 1–0 |
Home and away
AlavesAlaves at home
Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost
- LostAtletico Madrid10 Oct 20261–2
- LostValencia15 Sep 20260–1
- WonOsasuna6 Sep 20265–2
- WonVillarreal28 Aug 20261–0
- WonGetafe15 Aug 20263–0
Alaves: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 18 scored, 14 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 7 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
MalagaMalaga away
Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost
- LostGetafe20 Sep 20260–1
- DrawnCelta Vigo13 Sep 20261–1
- LostReal Madrid30 Aug 20260–4
- LostAtletico Madrid19 Aug 20260–2
- WonAlmeriaSegunda División20 Jun 20262–1
Malaga: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 16 scored, 15 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Alaves- Last match
- 5 days before18 Oct 2026 · v Celta Vigo · La Liga
- Next match
- 8 days after31 Oct 2026 · v Barcelona · La Liga
Malaga- Last match
- 5 days before18 Oct 2026 · v Real Sociedad · La Liga
- Next match
- 4 days after27 Oct 2026 · v Alcazar · Copa del Rey
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 26 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Alaves
| Score | Alaves | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 18 won, 9 drawn, 6 lost in 33 matches | 764 won, 247 drawn, 143 lost in 1154 matches |
| Conceded first | 3 won, 11 drawn, 25 lost in 39 matches | 143 won, 247 drawn, 764 lost in 1154 matches |
| Level at half-time | 9 won, 14 drawn, 17 lost in 40 matches | 344 won, 376 drawn, 344 lost in 1064 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 9 won, 12 drawn, 13 lost in 34 matches | 264 won, 384 drawn, 264 lost in 912 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 7 won, 14 drawn, 11 lost in 32 matches | 206 won, 422 drawn, 206 lost in 834 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 18 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost in 22 matches | 411 won, 89 drawn, 12 lost in 512 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 1 won, 14 drawn, 8 lost in 23 matches | 152 won, 454 drawn, 152 lost in 758 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 0 won, 5 drawn, 17 lost in 22 matches | 12 won, 89 drawn, 411 lost in 512 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 16 won, 13 drawn, 25 lost in 54 matches | 643 won, 488 drawn, 643 lost in 1774 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 13 won, 14 drawn, 20 lost in 47 matches | 474 won, 424 drawn, 474 lost in 1372 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Alaves | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 21 scored, 30 conceded (75) | 795 scored, 795 conceded (2458) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 3 scored, 10 conceded (21) | 284 scored, 277 conceded (833) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 11 scored, 15 conceded (31) | 234 scored, 234 conceded (792) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 5 conceded (23) | 277 scored, 284 conceded (833) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 40 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 21(league sides: 1,295 times, within 15 minutes 212, by full time 604)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 26 Oct 2024
| Alaves | Malaga | |
|---|---|---|
| 75 | Matches with xG | — |
| 90.51 | xG for | — |
| 82 | Goals scored | — |
| 91.20 | xG against | — |
| 96 | Goals conceded | — |
Alaves
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2026 | at Celta Vigo | 1.06 | 0.97 | 1–2 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | v Atletico Madrid | 1.30 | 2.05 | 1–2 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Athletic Club | 0.05 | 1.62 | 0–0 |
| 15 Sep 2026 | v Valencia | 1.05 | 0.65 | 0–1 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Racing Santander | 1.98 | 2.01 | 1–2 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | v Osasuna | 1.20 | 1.64 | 5–2 |
| 28 Aug 2026 | v Villarreal | 0.81 | 1.40 | 1–0 |
| 20 Aug 2026 | at Rayo Vallecano | 2.00 | 0.42 | 1–1 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | v Getafe | 1.93 | 0.24 | 3–0 |
| 23 May 2026 | v Rayo Vallecano | 1.63 | 1.34 | 1–2 |
This league season
La Liga matches since 15 Aug 2026.
| Alaves | Malaga | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 of 9 | Matches with xG | 9 of 9 |
| 11 | Points in those matches | 4 |
| 12.61 | xPts | 8.01 |
| 11.38 | xG for | 7.78 |
| 11.00 | xG against | 15.17 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Alaves and Malaga
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- F. Garces (Suspended) · M. Rodriguez (Ankle Injury)
- Ruled out
- J. Cruz (Muscle Injury) · J. Lobete (Knee Injury) · P. Martinez (Foot Injury) · J. Munoz (Calf Injury) · D. Murillo (Knee Injury) · A. Ochoa (Knee Injury)
Published 23 Oct 2026, 19:02 BST · not changed since
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