LEDGER
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Premier League
Arsenal
2–0Finished
Everton
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 15:00 BSTMatchday 8 · Emirates Stadium, London

Arsenal v Everton match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 24 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Arsenal are heavy favourites at home with a 63% chance of winning. The model expects a one-sided contest with expected goals of 1.8 for Arsenal and 0.72 for Everton, though defensive injuries may complicate matters for the hosts.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 63%Arsenal win
  • 24%Draw
  • 13%Everton win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

ArsenalArsenal

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

EvertonEverton

Last 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Premier League, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 188 of 267.
  • Everton won 21 of 31 matches in which they scored first, since 26 Oct 2024.
  • Arsenal won 6 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Arsenal unbeaten in their last 5 home games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Arsenal 6, draws 2, Everton 2

Goals: Arsenal 17, Everton 6

DateMatchScore
14 Mar 2026Arsenal v Everton2–0
20 Dec 2025Everton v Arsenal0–1
5 Apr 2025Everton v Arsenal1–1
14 Dec 2024Arsenal v Everton0–0
19 May 2024Arsenal v Everton2–1
17 Sep 2023Everton v Arsenal0–1
1 Mar 2023Arsenal v Everton4–0
4 Feb 2023Everton v Arsenal1–0
22 May 2022Arsenal v Everton5–1
6 Dec 2021Everton v Arsenal2–1

Home and away

Arsenal

Arsenal at home

Last 5: 5 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost

  • WonLilleUEFA Champions League13 Oct 20263–0
  • WonLeeds10 Oct 20262–1
  • WonChelsea6 Sep 20262–1
  • WonCoventry21 Aug 20263–0
  • WonBurnley18 May 20261–0

Arsenal: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
20 scored, 5 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
4 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
6 of 10
Everton

Everton away

Last 5: 1 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost

  • DrawnHull City11 Oct 20262–2
  • DrawnTottenham12 Sep 20260–0
  • DrawnBournemouth29 Aug 20261–1
  • WonPrestonLeague Cup26 Aug 20264–0
  • LostTottenham24 May 20260–1

Everton: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
13 scored, 15 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Arsenal
Last match
3 days before21 Oct 2026 · v Bayern München · UEFA Champions League
Next match
3 days after27 Oct 2026 · v Fleetwood Town · League Cup
Everton
Last match
7 days before17 Oct 2026 · v Chelsea · Premier League
Next match
5 days after29 Oct 2026 · v Newcastle · League Cup

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 26 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Everton

ScoreEvertonLeague sides
Scored first21 won, 8 drawn, 2 lost in 31 matches742 won, 241 drawn, 169 lost in 1152 matches
Conceded first3 won, 12 drawn, 22 lost in 37 matches169 won, 241 drawn, 742 lost in 1152 matches
Level at half-time5 won, 17 drawn, 11 lost in 33 matches301 won, 328 drawn, 301 lost in 930 matches
Level after 60 minutes5 won, 17 drawn, 8 lost in 30 matches209 won, 326 drawn, 209 lost in 744 matches
Level after 70 minutes3 won, 17 drawn, 8 lost in 28 matches164 won, 358 drawn, 164 lost in 686 matches
Level after 80 minutes3 won, 19 drawn, 6 lost in 28 matches124 won, 392 drawn, 124 lost in 640 matches
Level after 15 minutes17 won, 22 drawn, 20 lost in 59 matches616 won, 456 drawn, 616 lost in 1688 matches
Level after 30 minutes12 won, 19 drawn, 15 lost in 46 matches430 won, 386 drawn, 430 lost in 1246 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreEvertonLeague sides
All matches25 scored, 25 conceded (75)875 scored, 875 conceded (2422)
When leading after 75 minutes7 scored, 9 conceded (23)315 scored, 327 conceded (884)
When level after 75 minutes5 scored, 11 conceded (26)233 scored, 233 conceded (654)
When trailing after 75 minutes13 scored, 5 conceded (26)327 scored, 315 conceded (884)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 34 times, equalised within 15 minutes 2, by full time 18(league sides: 1,367 times, within 15 minutes 231, by full time 655)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

ArsenalEverton
75Since 27 Oct 2024Matches with xG75Since 26 Oct 2024
125.19xG for89.83
136Goals scored88
59.93xG against99.86
58Goals conceded86

Arsenal

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Arsenal: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
18 Oct 2026at Nottingham Forest1.160.941–0
10 Oct 2026v Leeds2.330.622–1
19 Sep 2026at Brighton1.631.310–3
12 Sep 2026at Sunderland1.881.802–0
6 Sep 2026v Chelsea2.050.392–1
31 Aug 2026at Aston Villa1.040.331–0
21 Aug 2026v Coventry1.880.203–0
24 May 2026at Crystal Palace2.530.982–1
18 May 2026v Burnley1.290.191–0
10 May 2026at West Ham1.181.151–0

Everton

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Everton: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
17 Oct 2026v Chelsea0.541.590–2
11 Oct 2026at Hull City1.681.332–2
19 Sep 2026v Ipswich2.241.441–0
12 Sep 2026at Tottenham1.110.690–0
6 Sep 2026v Manchester United1.010.692–2
29 Aug 2026at Bournemouth1.842.161–1
22 Aug 2026v Crystal Palace1.121.962–0
24 May 2026at Tottenham0.411.150–1
17 May 2026v Sunderland1.040.761–3
10 May 2026at Crystal Palace1.592.562–2

This league season

Premier League matches since 21 Aug 2026.

ArsenalEverton
7 of 7Matches with xG7 of 7
18Points in those matches10
13.97xPts9.45
11.97xG for9.54
5.59xG against9.86

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Arsenal and Everton

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • ArsenalArsenal
    Ruled out
    W. Saliba (Back Injury) · C. Tzolis (Hamstring Injury)
    Doubtful
    P. Hincapie (Ankle Injury) · B. Saka (Thigh Injury)
  • EvertonEvertonNo injuries or suspensions reported.

Published 24 Oct 2026, 13:58 BST · not changed since

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