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Premier League
Arsenal
2–1Finished
Leeds
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 12:30 BST

Arsenal v Leeds match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 10 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 51%Arsenal win
  • 26%Draw
  • 23%Leeds win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

ArsenalArsenal

Last 5: 4 wins, no draws, 1 defeat

LeedsLeeds

Last 5: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 defeat

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Premier League, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 184 of 263.
  • Leeds won 33 of 43 matches in which they scored first, since 18 Oct 2024.
  • Arsenal won 7 of the last 7 meetings.
  • Arsenal unbeaten in their last 5 home games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

7 meetings: Arsenal 7, draws 0, Leeds 0

Goals: Arsenal 22, Leeds 3

DateMatchScore
31 Jan 2026Leeds v Arsenal0–4
23 Aug 2025Arsenal v Leeds5–0
1 Apr 2023Arsenal v Leeds4–1
16 Oct 2022Leeds v Arsenal0–1
8 May 2022Arsenal v Leeds2–1
18 Dec 2021Leeds v Arsenal1–4
26 Oct 2021Arsenal v LeedsLeague Cup2–0

Home and away

Arsenal

Arsenal at home

Last 5: 5 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost

  • WonChelsea6 Sep 20262–1
  • WonCoventry21 Aug 20263–0
  • WonBurnley18 May 20261–0
  • WonAtletico MadridUEFA Champions League5 May 20261–0
  • WonFulham2 May 20263–0

Arsenal: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
20 scored, 7 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
4 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
6 of 10
Leeds

Leeds away

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • LostChelseaLeague Cup9 Sep 20263–6
  • DrawnBrighton5 Sep 20261–1
  • WonNottingham ForestLeague Cup25 Aug 20262–0
  • WonNottingham Forest22 Aug 20261–0
  • LostWest Ham24 May 20260–3

Leeds: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
11 scored, 12 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
4 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Arsenal
Last match
21 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Brighton · Premier League
Next match
3 days after13 Oct 2026 · v Lille · UEFA Champions League
Leeds
Last match
20 days before20 Sep 2026 · v Crystal Palace · Premier League
Next match
8 days after18 Oct 2026 · v Manchester United · Premier League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 18 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Leeds

ScoreLeedsLeague sides
Scored first33 won, 7 drawn, 3 lost in 43 matches730 won, 236 drawn, 165 lost in 1131 matches
Conceded first5 won, 12 drawn, 13 lost in 30 matches165 won, 236 drawn, 730 lost in 1131 matches
Level at half-time6 won, 16 drawn, 6 lost in 28 matches295 won, 320 drawn, 295 lost in 910 matches
Level after 60 minutes9 won, 15 drawn, 7 lost in 31 matches207 won, 316 drawn, 207 lost in 730 matches
Level after 70 minutes8 won, 15 drawn, 4 lost in 27 matches163 won, 350 drawn, 163 lost in 676 matches
2+ goals up after 80 minutes19 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches402 won, 5 drawn, 1 lost in 408 matches
Level after 80 minutes7 won, 20 drawn, 2 lost in 29 matches124 won, 384 drawn, 124 lost in 632 matches
Level after 15 minutes20 won, 21 drawn, 13 lost in 54 matches606 won, 448 drawn, 606 lost in 1660 matches
Level after 30 minutes13 won, 16 drawn, 9 lost in 38 matches420 won, 378 drawn, 420 lost in 1218 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreLeedsLeague sides
All matches32 scored, 23 conceded (80)861 scored, 861 conceded (2380)
When leading after 75 minutes14 scored, 10 conceded (34)308 scored, 323 conceded (868)
When level after 75 minutes13 scored, 8 conceded (29)230 scored, 230 conceded (644)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 33 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 20(league sides: 1,341 times, within 15 minutes 226, by full time 643)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

ArsenalLeeds
74Since 19 Oct 2024Matches with xG80Since 18 Oct 2024
122.38xG for136.50
133Goals scored136
60.19xG against85.71
59Goals conceded82

Arsenal

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Arsenal: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
19 Sep 2026at Brighton1.631.310–3
12 Sep 2026at Sunderland1.881.802–0
6 Sep 2026v Chelsea2.050.392–1
31 Aug 2026at Aston Villa1.040.331–0
21 Aug 2026v Coventry1.880.203–0
24 May 2026at Crystal Palace2.530.982–1
18 May 2026v Burnley1.290.191–0
10 May 2026at West Ham1.181.151–0
2 May 2026v Fulham3.230.373–0
25 Apr 2026v Newcastle0.491.001–0

Leeds

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Leeds: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
20 Sep 2026v Crystal Palace1.311.060–0
14 Sep 2026v Newcastle2.080.884–1
5 Sep 2026at Brighton2.492.191–1
30 Aug 2026v Brentford1.461.671–1
22 Aug 2026at Nottingham Forest0.470.661–0
24 May 2026at West Ham1.592.610–3
17 May 2026v Brighton0.393.061–0
11 May 2026at Tottenham1.341.271–1
1 May 2026v Burnley1.640.573–1
22 Apr 2026at Bournemouth0.811.652–2

This league season

Premier League matches since 21 Aug 2026.

ArsenalLeeds
5 of 5Matches with xG5 of 5
12Points in those matches9
10.01xPts7.61
8.48xG for7.81
4.03xG against6.46

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Arsenal and Leeds

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • ArsenalArsenalW. Saliba (Back Injury) · C. Tzolis (Hamstring Injury) · K. Havertz (Muscle Injury) · E. Konsa (Muscle Injury)
  • LeedsLeedsD. James (Back Injury) · M. Joseph (Knee Injury) · J. Rodon (Muscle Injury) · J. Bahoya (Ankle Injury)

Published 10 Oct 2026, 11:27 BST · not changed since

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