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Serie A
AS Roma
4–2Finished
Cagliari
Tue 27 Oct 2026 · 19:45 GMTMatchday 9 · Stadio Olimpico, Rome

AS Roma v Cagliari match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Tue 27 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Roma start as strong favourites against Cagliari, with the model estimating a 67% chance of a home win and just 12% for an away victory. Expected goals total 2.71, with Roma projected at 1.97 and Cagliari at 0.74—a gap of 1.23 in Roma's favour. Roma have won both recent home meetings; however, both sides are hampered by injury absences heading into this fixture.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 66%AS Roma win
  • 22%Draw
  • 12%Cagliari win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

AS RomaAS Roma

Last 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat

CagliariCagliari

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • AS Roma won 50 of 58 matches in which they scored first, since 27 Oct 2024.
  • Cagliari won 16 of 27 matches in which they scored first, since 29 Oct 2024.
  • AS Roma won 6 of the last 8 meetings.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

8 meetings: AS Roma 6, draws 1, Cagliari 1

Goals: AS Roma 14, Cagliari 3

DateMatchScore
9 Feb 2026AS Roma v Cagliari2–0
7 Dec 2025Cagliari v AS Roma1–0
16 Mar 2025AS Roma v Cagliari1–0
18 Aug 2024Cagliari v AS Roma0–0
5 Feb 2024AS Roma v Cagliari4–0
8 Oct 2023Cagliari v AS Roma1–4
16 Jan 2022AS Roma v Cagliari1–0
27 Oct 2021Cagliari v AS Roma1–2

Home and away

AS Roma

AS Roma at home

Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost

  • WonSlovan BratislavaUEFA Champions League20 Oct 20264–0
  • WonGenoa17 Oct 20262–0
  • LostReal MadridUEFA Champions League14 Oct 20263–4
  • DrawnInter19 Sep 20262–2
  • WonAtalanta5 Sep 20262–1

AS Roma: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
24 scored, 7 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
4 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
6 of 10
Cagliari

Cagliari away

Last 5: 4 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost

  • LostMonza19 Oct 20260–4
  • WonUdinese19 Sep 20261–0
  • WonAtalanta12 Sep 20262–1
  • WonParma22 Aug 20261–0
  • WonAC Milan24 May 20262–1

Cagliari: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
9 scored, 15 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

AS Roma
Last match
3 days before24 Oct 2026 · v Napoli · Serie A
Next match
4 days after31 Oct 2026 · v Udinese · Serie A
Cagliari
Last match
3 days before24 Oct 2026 · v Bologna · Serie A
Next match
5 days after1 Nov 2026 · v Lazio · Serie A

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

AS Roma

Since 27 Oct 2024

ScoreAS RomaLeague sides
Scored first50 won, 6 drawn, 2 lost in 58 matches762 won, 238 drawn, 125 lost in 1125 matches
Conceded first6 won, 11 drawn, 21 lost in 38 matches125 won, 238 drawn, 762 lost in 1125 matches
1 goal up at half-time25 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost in 28 matches336 won, 123 drawn, 56 lost in 515 matches
Level at half-time18 won, 10 drawn, 10 lost in 38 matches323 won, 394 drawn, 323 lost in 1040 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes31 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 35 matches373 won, 112 drawn, 34 lost in 519 matches
Level after 60 minutes8 won, 7 drawn, 8 lost in 23 matches239 won, 406 drawn, 239 lost in 884 matches
2+ goals up after 70 minutes22 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost in 24 matches293 won, 13 drawn, 1 lost in 307 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes28 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost in 30 matches391 won, 96 drawn, 23 lost in 510 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes1 won, 8 drawn, 11 lost in 20 matches23 won, 96 drawn, 391 lost in 510 matches
2+ goals up after 80 minutes27 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost in 28 matches333 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 337 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes26 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost in 28 matches433 won, 85 drawn, 12 lost in 530 matches
1 goal up after 15 minutes17 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost in 20 matches205 won, 60 drawn, 41 lost in 306 matches
Level after 15 minutes37 won, 14 drawn, 15 lost in 66 matches621 won, 538 drawn, 621 lost in 1780 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes25 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost in 28 matches294 won, 111 drawn, 58 lost in 463 matches
Level after 30 minutes25 won, 12 drawn, 14 lost in 51 matches453 won, 424 drawn, 453 lost in 1330 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreAS RomaLeague sides
All matches32 scored, 27 conceded (97)708 scored, 708 conceded (2440)
When leading after 75 minutes15 scored, 14 conceded (55)248 scored, 229 conceded (830)
When level after 75 minutes8 scored, 10 conceded (21)231 scored, 231 conceded (780)
When trailing after 75 minutes9 scored, 3 conceded (21)229 scored, 248 conceded (830)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 41 times, equalised within 15 minutes 11, by full time 26(league sides: 1,256 times, within 15 minutes 185, by full time 557)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Cagliari

Since 29 Oct 2024

ScoreCagliariLeague sides
Scored first16 won, 6 drawn, 5 lost in 27 matches762 won, 238 drawn, 125 lost in 1125 matches
Conceded first6 won, 6 drawn, 31 lost in 43 matches125 won, 238 drawn, 762 lost in 1125 matches
Level at half-time14 won, 10 drawn, 14 lost in 38 matches323 won, 394 drawn, 323 lost in 1040 matches
1 goal down at half-time1 won, 3 drawn, 19 lost in 23 matches56 won, 123 drawn, 336 lost in 515 matches
Level after 60 minutes9 won, 12 drawn, 10 lost in 31 matches239 won, 406 drawn, 239 lost in 884 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes0 won, 2 drawn, 20 lost in 22 matches34 won, 112 drawn, 373 lost in 519 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes0 won, 4 drawn, 22 lost in 26 matches23 won, 96 drawn, 391 lost in 510 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes16 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches433 won, 85 drawn, 12 lost in 530 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes0 won, 5 drawn, 20 lost in 25 matches12 won, 85 drawn, 433 lost in 530 matches
Level after 15 minutes17 won, 16 drawn, 24 lost in 57 matches621 won, 538 drawn, 621 lost in 1780 matches
Level after 30 minutes15 won, 11 drawn, 18 lost in 44 matches453 won, 424 drawn, 453 lost in 1330 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreCagliariLeague sides
All matches16 scored, 21 conceded (75)708 scored, 708 conceded (2440)
When leading after 75 minutes7 scored, 5 conceded (24)248 scored, 229 conceded (830)
When trailing after 75 minutes7 scored, 11 conceded (36)229 scored, 248 conceded (830)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 52 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 21(league sides: 1,256 times, within 15 minutes 185, by full time 557)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 19 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

AS RomaCagliari
76Since 27 Oct 2024Matches with xG75Since 29 Oct 2024
114.58xG for77.16
126Goals scored78
81.10xG against110.06
66Goals conceded103

AS Roma

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
AS Roma: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
24 Oct 2026at Napoli1.962.513–3
17 Oct 2026v Genoa1.370.492–0
11 Oct 2026at Como1.081.350–0
19 Sep 2026v Inter1.662.862–2
14 Sep 2026at Torino1.850.862–0
5 Sep 2026v Atalanta2.970.702–1
31 Aug 2026at Lecce3.270.804–0
24 Aug 2026v Fiorentina3.070.354–0
24 May 2026at Hellas Verona3.390.842–0
17 May 2026v Lazio1.190.692–0

Cagliari

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Cagliari: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
24 Oct 2026v Bologna0.441.640–2
19 Oct 2026at Monza2.112.100–4
11 Oct 2026v Juventus0.521.951–1
19 Sep 2026at Udinese1.122.131–0
12 Sep 2026at Atalanta1.321.742–1
7 Sep 2026v Lecce1.610.501–0
30 Aug 2026v Inter0.483.670–1
22 Aug 2026at Parma0.940.751–0
24 May 2026at AC Milan2.781.742–1
17 May 2026v Torino1.320.992–1

This league season

Serie A matches since 22 Aug 2026.

AS RomaCagliari
8 of 8Matches with xG8 of 8
18Points in those matches13
15.15xPts8.07
17.23xG for8.54
9.92xG against14.48

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: AS Roma and Cagliari

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • AS RomaAS Roma
    Ruled out
    M. Bah (Knee Injury) · M. Kone (Muscle Injury) · L. Pellegrini (Thigh Injury) · M. Svilar (Toe Injury)
    Doubtful
    P. Dybala (Calf Injury)
  • CagliariCagliari
    Ruled out
    M. Felici (Knee Injury) · R. Idrissi (Knee Injury)
    Doubtful
    H. Winks (Back Injury)

Published 27 Oct 2026, 18:42 GMT · not changed since

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