AS Roma v Genoa match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 17 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 64%AS Roma win
- 23%Draw
- 13%Genoa win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
AS RomaLast 5: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 defeat
GenoaLast 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- AS Roma won 49 of 57 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
- Genoa won 19 of 30 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
- AS Roma won 5 of the last 9 meetings.
- Genoa without a win in their last 5 away games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
9 meetings: AS Roma 5, draws 2, Genoa 2
Goals: AS Roma 13, Genoa 9
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 8 Mar 2026 | Genoa v AS Roma | 2–1 |
| 29 Dec 2025 | AS Roma v Genoa | 3–1 |
| 17 Jan 2025 | AS Roma v Genoa | 3–1 |
| 15 Sep 2024 | Genoa v AS Roma | 1–1 |
| 19 May 2024 | AS Roma v Genoa | 1–0 |
| 28 Sep 2023 | Genoa v AS Roma | 4–1 |
| 12 Jan 2023 | AS Roma v GenoaCoppa Italia | 1–0 |
| 5 Feb 2022 | AS Roma v Genoa | 0–0 |
| 21 Nov 2021 | Genoa v AS Roma | 0–2 |
Home and away
AS RomaAS Roma at home
Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost
- LostReal MadridUEFA Champions League14 Oct 20263–4
- DrawnInter19 Sep 20262–2
- WonAtalanta5 Sep 20262–1
- WonFiorentina24 Aug 20264–0
- WonLazio17 May 20262–0
AS Roma: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 25 scored, 7 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 4 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 7 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 10
GenoaGenoa away
Last 5: 0 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost
- LostParma20 Sep 20261–2
- LostLazio30 Aug 20260–1
- LostLecce24 May 20260–1
- DrawnFiorentina10 May 20260–0
- DrawnAtalanta2 May 20260–0
Genoa: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 5 scored, 9 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 2 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 2 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
AS Roma- Last match
- 3 days before14 Oct 2026 · v Real Madrid · UEFA Champions League
- Next match
- 3 days after20 Oct 2026 · v Slovan Bratislava · UEFA Champions League
Genoa- Last match
- 7 days before10 Oct 2026 · v Fiorentina · Serie A
- Next match
- 8 days after25 Oct 2026 · v Venezia · Serie A
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
AS Roma
Since 20 Oct 2024
| Score | AS Roma | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 49 won, 6 drawn, 2 lost in 57 matches | 748 won, 236 drawn, 123 lost in 1107 matches |
| Conceded first | 6 won, 10 drawn, 23 lost in 39 matches | 123 won, 236 drawn, 748 lost in 1107 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 26 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost in 29 matches | 330 won, 121 drawn, 56 lost in 507 matches |
| Level at half-time | 17 won, 10 drawn, 11 lost in 38 matches | 317 won, 394 drawn, 317 lost in 1028 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 31 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 35 matches | 368 won, 111 drawn, 34 lost in 513 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 8 won, 7 drawn, 8 lost in 23 matches | 236 won, 406 drawn, 236 lost in 878 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 2 won, 5 drawn, 14 lost in 21 matches | 34 won, 111 drawn, 368 lost in 513 matches |
| 2+ goals up after 70 minutes | 20 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost in 22 matches | 282 won, 13 drawn, 1 lost in 296 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 29 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost in 31 matches | 387 won, 94 drawn, 22 lost in 503 matches |
| 1 goal down after 70 minutes | 1 won, 7 drawn, 13 lost in 21 matches | 22 won, 94 drawn, 387 lost in 503 matches |
| 2+ goals up after 80 minutes | 25 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost in 26 matches | 320 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 324 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 27 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost in 29 matches | 431 won, 84 drawn, 11 lost in 526 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 1 won, 3 drawn, 17 lost in 21 matches | 11 won, 84 drawn, 431 lost in 526 matches |
| 1 goal up after 15 minutes | 17 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost in 20 matches | 202 won, 60 drawn, 40 lost in 302 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 36 won, 13 drawn, 17 lost in 66 matches | 609 won, 534 drawn, 609 lost in 1752 matches |
| 1 goal up after 30 minutes | 25 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost in 28 matches | 289 won, 109 drawn, 57 lost in 455 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 24 won, 12 drawn, 16 lost in 52 matches | 444 won, 424 drawn, 444 lost in 1312 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | AS Roma | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 32 scored, 27 conceded (97) | 695 scored, 695 conceded (2404) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 15 scored, 14 conceded (54) | 243 scored, 223 conceded (813) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 9 conceded (20) | 229 scored, 229 conceded (778) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 10 scored, 4 conceded (23) | 223 scored, 243 conceded (813) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 43 times, equalised within 15 minutes 12, by full time 27(league sides: 1,233 times, within 15 minutes 182, by full time 549)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Genoa
Since 19 Oct 2024
| Score | Genoa | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 19 won, 4 drawn, 7 lost in 30 matches | 748 won, 236 drawn, 123 lost in 1107 matches |
| Conceded first | 5 won, 9 drawn, 26 lost in 40 matches | 123 won, 236 drawn, 748 lost in 1107 matches |
| Level at half-time | 12 won, 15 drawn, 12 lost in 39 matches | 317 won, 394 drawn, 317 lost in 1028 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 11 won, 15 drawn, 10 lost in 36 matches | 236 won, 406 drawn, 236 lost in 878 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 8 won, 15 drawn, 10 lost in 33 matches | 179 won, 448 drawn, 179 lost in 806 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 6 won, 15 drawn, 7 lost in 28 matches | 109 won, 486 drawn, 109 lost in 704 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 0 won, 6 drawn, 16 lost in 22 matches | 11 won, 84 drawn, 431 lost in 526 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 21 won, 18 drawn, 22 lost in 61 matches | 609 won, 534 drawn, 609 lost in 1752 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 13 won, 15 drawn, 16 lost in 44 matches | 444 won, 424 drawn, 444 lost in 1312 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Genoa | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 25 scored, 21 conceded (80) | 695 scored, 695 conceded (2404) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 9 scored, 10 conceded (32) | 229 scored, 229 conceded (778) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 10 scored, 7 conceded (30) | 223 scored, 243 conceded (813) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 44 times, equalised within 15 minutes 4, by full time 21(league sides: 1,233 times, within 15 minutes 182, by full time 549)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 19 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| AS Roma | Genoa | |
|---|---|---|
| 75Since 20 Oct 2024 | Matches with xG | 75Since 19 Oct 2024 |
| 112.29 | xG for | 81.92 |
| 121 | Goals scored | 78 |
| 79.14 | xG against | 89.72 |
| 64 | Goals conceded | 96 |
AS Roma
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2026 | at Como | 1.08 | 1.35 | 0–0 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Inter | 1.66 | 2.86 | 2–2 |
| 14 Sep 2026 | at Torino | 1.85 | 0.86 | 2–0 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Atalanta | 2.97 | 0.70 | 2–1 |
| 31 Aug 2026 | at Lecce | 3.27 | 0.80 | 4–0 |
| 24 Aug 2026 | v Fiorentina | 3.07 | 0.35 | 4–0 |
| 24 May 2026 | at Hellas Verona | 3.39 | 0.84 | 2–0 |
| 17 May 2026 | v Lazio | 1.19 | 0.69 | 2–0 |
| 10 May 2026 | at Parma | 2.62 | 0.73 | 3–2 |
| 4 May 2026 | v Fiorentina | 2.24 | 0.14 | 4–0 |
Genoa
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | v Fiorentina | 1.46 | 0.82 | 2–1 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | at Parma | 0.70 | 0.53 | 1–2 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Frosinone | 1.88 | 1.93 | 1–1 |
| 4 Sep 2026 | v Como | 0.78 | 1.78 | 1–4 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | at Lazio | 0.42 | 1.62 | 0–1 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Napoli | 0.67 | 0.77 | 0–2 |
| 24 May 2026 | at Lecce | 0.68 | 1.43 | 0–1 |
| 17 May 2026 | v AC Milan | 1.32 | 1.75 | 1–2 |
| 10 May 2026 | at Fiorentina | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0–0 |
| 2 May 2026 | at Atalanta | 0.52 | 1.96 | 0–0 |
This league season
Serie A matches since 22 Aug 2026.
| AS Roma | Genoa | |
|---|---|---|
| 6 of 6 | Matches with xG | 6 of 6 |
| 14 | Points in those matches | 4 |
| 12.00 | xPts | 7.09 |
| 13.90 | xG for | 5.91 |
| 6.92 | xG against | 7.45 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: AS Roma and Genoa
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- M. Bah (Knee Injury) · B. Cristante (Knee Injury) · P. Dybala (Muscle Injury) · M. Kone (Muscle Injury) · D. Malen (Red Card) · M. Svilar (Toe Injury)
- Ruled out
- L. Colombo (Ankle Injury) · E. Havel (Ankle Injury) · F. Meichtry (Muscle Injury) · D. Sow (Injury) · L. Venturino (Knee Injury)
- Doubtful
- Amorim (Ankle Injury) · S. Otoa (Thigh Injury)
Published 17 Oct 2026, 19:12 BST · not changed since
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