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Premier League
Aston Villa
2–2Finished
Brentford
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 15:00 BST

Aston Villa v Brentford match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 10 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 51%Aston Villa win
  • 24%Draw
  • 25%Brentford win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Aston VillaAston Villa

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

BrentfordBrentford

Last 5: 2 wins, 3 draws, no defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Aston Villa won 45 of 55 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Brentford won 24 of 39 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Aston Villa won 4 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Brentford unbeaten in their last 5 away games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Aston Villa 4, draws 3, Brentford 3

Goals: Aston Villa 16, Brentford 11

DateMatchScore
1 Feb 2026Aston Villa v Brentford0–1
16 Sep 2025Brentford v Aston VillaLeague Cup1–1 PEN
23 Aug 2025Brentford v Aston Villa1–0
8 Mar 2025Brentford v Aston Villa0–1
4 Dec 2024Aston Villa v Brentford3–1
6 Apr 2024Aston Villa v Brentford3–3
17 Dec 2023Brentford v Aston Villa1–2
22 Apr 2023Brentford v Aston Villa1–1
23 Oct 2022Aston Villa v Brentford4–0
2 Jan 2022Brentford v Aston Villa2–1

Home and away

Aston Villa

Aston Villa at home

Last 5: 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost

  • LostNottingham Forest12 Sep 20261–2
  • LostArsenal31 Aug 20260–1
  • WonLiverpool15 May 20264–2
  • WonNottingham ForestUEFA Europa League7 May 20264–0
  • LostTottenham3 May 20261–2

Aston Villa: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
15 scored, 16 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10
Brentford

Brentford away

Last 5: 2 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost

  • WonReadingLeague Cup15 Sep 20262–1
  • DrawnBournemouth12 Sep 20262–2
  • DrawnLeeds30 Aug 20261–1
  • WonBirminghamLeague Cup25 Aug 20266–1
  • DrawnLiverpool24 May 20261–1

Brentford: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
13 scored, 14 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Aston Villa
Last match
21 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Tottenham · Premier League
Next match
4 days after14 Oct 2026 · v Fenerbahçe · UEFA Champions League
Brentford
Last match
22 days before18 Sep 2026 · v Chelsea · Premier League
Next match
7 days after17 Oct 2026 · v Liverpool · Premier League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Aston Villa

ScoreAston VillaLeague sides
Scored first45 won, 5 drawn, 5 lost in 55 matches730 won, 236 drawn, 165 lost in 1131 matches
Conceded first11 won, 7 drawn, 23 lost in 41 matches165 won, 236 drawn, 730 lost in 1131 matches
1 goal up at half-time19 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost in 23 matches320 won, 125 drawn, 73 lost in 518 matches
Level at half-time23 won, 11 drawn, 13 lost in 47 matches295 won, 320 drawn, 295 lost in 910 matches
1 goal down at half-time7 won, 3 drawn, 11 lost in 21 matches73 won, 125 drawn, 320 lost in 518 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes27 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost in 30 matches349 won, 126 drawn, 49 lost in 524 matches
Level after 60 minutes13 won, 10 drawn, 7 lost in 30 matches207 won, 316 drawn, 207 lost in 730 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes26 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost in 29 matches341 won, 112 drawn, 36 lost in 489 matches
Level after 70 minutes11 won, 13 drawn, 5 lost in 29 matches163 won, 350 drawn, 163 lost in 676 matches
2+ goals up after 80 minutes25 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 25 matches402 won, 5 drawn, 1 lost in 408 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes24 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost in 27 matches347 won, 98 drawn, 21 lost in 466 matches
Level after 80 minutes7 won, 14 drawn, 2 lost in 23 matches124 won, 384 drawn, 124 lost in 632 matches
Level after 15 minutes40 won, 13 drawn, 18 lost in 71 matches606 won, 448 drawn, 606 lost in 1660 matches
Level after 30 minutes31 won, 10 drawn, 16 lost in 57 matches420 won, 378 drawn, 420 lost in 1218 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreAston VillaLeague sides
All matches35 scored, 30 conceded (101)861 scored, 861 conceded (2380)
When leading after 75 minutes18 scored, 13 conceded (48)308 scored, 323 conceded (868)
When level after 75 minutes11 scored, 5 conceded (26)230 scored, 230 conceded (644)
When trailing after 75 minutes6 scored, 12 conceded (27)323 scored, 308 conceded (868)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 48 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 24(league sides: 1,341 times, within 15 minutes 226, by full time 643)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Brentford

ScoreBrentfordLeague sides
Scored first24 won, 9 drawn, 6 lost in 39 matches730 won, 236 drawn, 165 lost in 1131 matches
Conceded first7 won, 5 drawn, 18 lost in 30 matches165 won, 236 drawn, 730 lost in 1131 matches
1 goal up at half-time14 won, 5 drawn, 4 lost in 23 matches320 won, 125 drawn, 73 lost in 518 matches
Level at half-time9 won, 16 drawn, 5 lost in 30 matches295 won, 320 drawn, 295 lost in 910 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes14 won, 6 drawn, 3 lost in 23 matches349 won, 126 drawn, 49 lost in 524 matches
Level after 60 minutes7 won, 13 drawn, 3 lost in 23 matches207 won, 316 drawn, 207 lost in 730 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes13 won, 6 drawn, 2 lost in 21 matches341 won, 112 drawn, 36 lost in 489 matches
Level after 80 minutes3 won, 16 drawn, 2 lost in 21 matches124 won, 384 drawn, 124 lost in 632 matches
Level after 15 minutes17 won, 19 drawn, 18 lost in 54 matches606 won, 448 drawn, 606 lost in 1660 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes15 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost in 20 matches311 won, 103 drawn, 77 lost in 491 matches
Level after 30 minutes11 won, 18 drawn, 10 lost in 39 matches420 won, 378 drawn, 420 lost in 1218 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreBrentfordLeague sides
All matches32 scored, 30 conceded (76)861 scored, 861 conceded (2380)
When leading after 75 minutes17 scored, 15 conceded (34)308 scored, 323 conceded (868)
When level after 75 minutes9 scored, 8 conceded (20)230 scored, 230 conceded (644)
When trailing after 75 minutes6 scored, 7 conceded (22)323 scored, 308 conceded (868)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 37 times, equalised within 15 minutes 11, by full time 17(league sides: 1,341 times, within 15 minutes 226, by full time 643)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 19 Oct 2024

Aston VillaBrentford
74Matches with xG74
99.98xG for119.23
106Goals scored118
106.75xG against103.77
100Goals conceded100

Aston Villa

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Aston Villa: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
19 Sep 2026at Tottenham1.161.563–2
12 Sep 2026v Nottingham Forest0.822.281–2
5 Sep 2026at Hull City1.930.570–0
31 Aug 2026v Arsenal0.331.040–1
23 Aug 2026at Brighton0.293.770–4
24 May 2026at Manchester City1.771.342–1
15 May 2026v Liverpool1.911.554–2
10 May 2026at Burnley1.441.792–2
3 May 2026v Tottenham0.320.991–2
25 Apr 2026at Fulham0.931.180–1

Brentford

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Brentford: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
18 Sep 2026v Chelsea2.650.833–0
12 Sep 2026at Bournemouth0.501.752–2
5 Sep 2026v Sunderland1.211.711–1
30 Aug 2026at Leeds1.671.461–1
22 Aug 2026v Tottenham3.870.573–0
24 May 2026at Liverpool1.563.041–1
17 May 2026v Crystal Palace1.711.722–2
9 May 2026at Manchester City0.242.980–3
2 May 2026v West Ham2.270.923–0
27 Apr 2026at Manchester United1.171.361–2

This league season

Premier League matches since 21 Aug 2026.

Aston VillaBrentford
5 of 5Matches with xG5 of 5
4Points in those matches9
4.70xPts8.34
4.53xG for9.90
9.22xG against6.32

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Aston Villa and Brentford

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • Aston VillaAston VillaI. Maatsen (Ankle Injury) · A. Onana (Knee Injury) · L. Goretzka (Knee Injury)
  • BrentfordBrentfordK. Furo (Surgery) · M. Jensen (Muscle Injury) · S. van den Berg (Injury) · N. Collins (Calf Injury) · M. Damsgaard (Ankle Injury)

Published 10 Oct 2026, 14:02 BST · not changed since

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