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Premier League
Aston Villa
2–1Finished
Manchester City
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 12:30 BSTMatchday 8 · Villa Park, Birmingham

Aston Villa v Manchester City match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 24 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Manchester City are the model's favourites with a 45% chance of victory, while Aston Villa have a 29% chance and a draw is 26% likely. The model expects 2.86 goals. Aston Villa are weakened by three defensive injuries, though they have won their last two encounters with City.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 29%Aston Villa win
  • 26%Draw
  • 45%Manchester City win

PRO analysis

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Aston VillaAston Villa

Last 5: 4 wins, 1 draw, no defeats

Manchester CityManchester City

Last 5: 4 wins, no draws, 1 defeat

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Aston Villa won 46 of 56 matches in which they scored first, since 26 Oct 2024.
  • Premier League, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 188 of 267.
  • Manchester City won 5 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Manchester City unbeaten in their last 5 away games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Aston Villa 4, draws 1, Manchester City 5

Goals: Aston Villa 13, Manchester City 17

DateMatchScore
24 May 2026Manchester City v Aston Villa1–2
26 Oct 2025Aston Villa v Manchester City1–0
22 Apr 2025Manchester City v Aston Villa2–1
21 Dec 2024Aston Villa v Manchester City2–1
3 Apr 2024Manchester City v Aston Villa4–1
6 Dec 2023Aston Villa v Manchester City1–0
12 Feb 2023Manchester City v Aston Villa3–1
3 Sep 2022Aston Villa v Manchester City1–1
22 May 2022Manchester City v Aston Villa3–2
1 Dec 2021Aston Villa v Manchester City1–2

Home and away

Aston Villa

Aston Villa at home

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • WonVikingUEFA Champions League21 Oct 20263–1
  • WonFenerbahçeUEFA Champions League14 Oct 20266–0
  • DrawnBrentford10 Oct 20262–2
  • LostNottingham Forest12 Sep 20261–2
  • LostArsenal31 Aug 20260–1

Aston Villa: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
17 scored, 17 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10
Manchester City

Manchester City away

Last 5: 4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost

  • WonLiverpool11 Oct 20263–0
  • WonManchester United13 Sep 20261–0
  • WonFC PortoUEFA Champions League8 Sep 20262–0
  • WonCrystal Palace28 Aug 20264–1
  • DrawnBournemouth19 May 20261–1

Manchester City: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
20 scored, 7 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
5 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Aston Villa
Last match
3 days before21 Oct 2026 · v Viking · UEFA Champions League
Next match
4 days after28 Oct 2026 · v Bournemouth · League Cup
Manchester City
Last match
4 days before20 Oct 2026 · v AEK Athens FC · UEFA Champions League
Next match
4 days after28 Oct 2026 · v Brighton · League Cup

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 26 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Aston Villa

ScoreAston VillaLeague sides
Scored first46 won, 5 drawn, 5 lost in 56 matches742 won, 241 drawn, 169 lost in 1152 matches
Conceded first10 won, 8 drawn, 23 lost in 41 matches169 won, 241 drawn, 742 lost in 1152 matches
1 goal up at half-time19 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost in 23 matches327 won, 126 drawn, 74 lost in 527 matches
Level at half-time21 won, 12 drawn, 13 lost in 46 matches301 won, 328 drawn, 301 lost in 930 matches
1 goal down at half-time7 won, 3 drawn, 11 lost in 21 matches74 won, 126 drawn, 327 lost in 527 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes26 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost in 29 matches355 won, 126 drawn, 52 lost in 533 matches
Level after 60 minutes13 won, 11 drawn, 7 lost in 31 matches209 won, 326 drawn, 209 lost in 744 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes27 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost in 30 matches349 won, 113 drawn, 37 lost in 499 matches
Level after 70 minutes11 won, 14 drawn, 5 lost in 30 matches164 won, 358 drawn, 164 lost in 686 matches
2+ goals up after 80 minutes24 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches408 won, 5 drawn, 1 lost in 414 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes25 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost in 28 matches356 won, 99 drawn, 22 lost in 477 matches
Level after 80 minutes7 won, 15 drawn, 2 lost in 24 matches124 won, 392 drawn, 124 lost in 640 matches
Level after 15 minutes40 won, 14 drawn, 18 lost in 72 matches616 won, 456 drawn, 616 lost in 1688 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes15 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches314 won, 104 drawn, 78 lost in 496 matches
Level after 30 minutes29 won, 11 drawn, 16 lost in 56 matches430 won, 386 drawn, 430 lost in 1246 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreAston VillaLeague sides
All matches37 scored, 32 conceded (102)875 scored, 875 conceded (2422)
When leading after 75 minutes19 scored, 14 conceded (48)315 scored, 327 conceded (884)
When level after 75 minutes12 scored, 6 conceded (27)233 scored, 233 conceded (654)
When trailing after 75 minutes6 scored, 12 conceded (27)327 scored, 315 conceded (884)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 48 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 24(league sides: 1,367 times, within 15 minutes 231, by full time 655)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 26 Oct 2024

Aston VillaManchester City
75Matches with xG75
102.21xG for139.65
106Goals scored149
107.10xG against93.29
101Goals conceded77

Aston Villa

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Aston Villa: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
17 Oct 2026at Newcastle1.631.071–0
10 Oct 2026v Brentford2.281.062–2
19 Sep 2026at Tottenham1.161.563–2
12 Sep 2026v Nottingham Forest0.822.281–2
5 Sep 2026at Hull City1.930.570–0
31 Aug 2026v Arsenal0.331.040–1
23 Aug 2026at Brighton0.293.770–4
24 May 2026at Manchester City1.771.342–1
15 May 2026v Liverpool1.911.554–2
10 May 2026at Burnley1.441.792–2

Manchester City

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Manchester City: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
17 Oct 2026v Ipswich3.611.723–2
11 Oct 2026at Liverpool1.280.943–0
20 Sep 2026v Sunderland2.823.575–3
13 Sep 2026at Manchester United1.101.001–0
5 Sep 2026v Coventry2.121.371–0
28 Aug 2026at Crystal Palace2.210.664–1
23 Aug 2026v Bournemouth2.250.652–1
24 May 2026v Aston Villa1.341.771–2
19 May 2026at Bournemouth1.482.251–1
13 May 2026v Crystal Palace1.660.733–0

This league season

Premier League matches since 21 Aug 2026.

Aston VillaManchester City
7 of 7Matches with xG7 of 7
8Points in those matches21
8.59xPts13.02
8.44xG for15.39
11.35xG against9.91

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Aston Villa and Manchester City

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • Aston VillaAston Villa
    Ruled out
    A. Onana (Knee Injury) · M. Ruggeri (Muscle Injury) · A. Wan-Bissaka (Muscle Injury)
    Doubtful
    J. Manzambi (Calf Injury)
  • Manchester CityManchester City
    Ruled out
    A. Semenyo (Knee Injury)
    Doubtful
    M. Kovacic (Injury) · M. Nunes (Knock) · N. O'Reilly (Back Injury)

Published 24 Oct 2026, 11:27 BST · not changed since

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