Atalanta v Frosinone match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 25 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Atalanta are favoured to beat Frosinone at home with a 56% chance of victory, but their form has been mixed with losses in three of their last five matches. Frosinone arrive in better recent shape and without midfielder Grillitsch, while Atalanta are without seven injured players.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 56%Atalanta win
- 25%Draw
- 19%Frosinone win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
AtalantaLast 5: 1 win, no draws, 4 defeats
FrosinoneLast 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Atalanta won 37 of 47 matches in which they scored first, since 26 Oct 2024.
- Serie A, since 19 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 216 of 272.
- Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Frosinone's last 10 away league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
2 meetings: Atalanta 1, draws 0, Frosinone 1
Goals: Atalanta 6, Frosinone 2
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 15 Jan 2024 | Atalanta v Frosinone | 5–0 |
| 26 Aug 2023 | Frosinone v Atalanta | 2–1 |
Home and away
AtalantaAtalanta at home
Last 5: 4 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost
- WonPafosUEFA Europa Conference League15 Oct 20263–1
- WonVenezia12 Oct 20263–1
- LostCagliari12 Sep 20261–2
- WonBologna31 Aug 20261–0
- WonSassuolo23 Aug 20262–1
Atalanta: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 12 scored, 9 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
FrosinoneFrosinone away
Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost
- LostNapoli10 Oct 20260–3
- DrawnGenoa12 Sep 20261–1
- DrawnSassuoloCoppa Italia2 Sep 20261–1 PEN
- WonFiorentina29 Aug 20263–0
- WonJuve StabiaSerie B · Italy1 May 20261–0
Frosinone: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 19 scored, 11 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 7 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Atalanta- Last match
- 3 days before22 Oct 2026 · v Ajax · UEFA Europa Conference League
- Next match
- 4 days after29 Oct 2026 · v Fiorentina · Serie A
Frosinone- Last match
- 9 days before16 Oct 2026 · v Sassuolo · Serie A
- Next match
- 4 days after29 Oct 2026 · v Lecce · Serie A
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 26 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Atalanta
| Score | Atalanta | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 37 won, 6 drawn, 4 lost in 47 matches | 759 won, 237 drawn, 124 lost in 1120 matches |
| Conceded first | 7 won, 10 drawn, 23 lost in 40 matches | 124 won, 237 drawn, 759 lost in 1120 matches |
| Level at half-time | 11 won, 16 drawn, 11 lost in 38 matches | 322 won, 394 drawn, 322 lost in 1038 matches |
| 2+ goals up after 60 minutes | 20 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches | 237 won, 18 drawn, 3 lost in 258 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 13 won, 15 drawn, 7 lost in 35 matches | 238 won, 406 drawn, 238 lost in 882 matches |
| 2+ goals up after 70 minutes | 21 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches | 291 won, 13 drawn, 1 lost in 305 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 9 won, 17 drawn, 3 lost in 29 matches | 179 won, 448 drawn, 179 lost in 806 matches |
| 2+ goals up after 80 minutes | 22 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 22 matches | 331 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 335 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 10 won, 18 drawn, 2 lost in 30 matches | 109 won, 488 drawn, 109 lost in 706 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 26 won, 20 drawn, 20 lost in 66 matches | 618 won, 536 drawn, 618 lost in 1772 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 18 won, 17 drawn, 11 lost in 46 matches | 452 won, 424 drawn, 452 lost in 1328 matches |
| 1 goal down after 30 minutes | 4 won, 5 drawn, 12 lost in 21 matches | 58 won, 110 drawn, 291 lost in 459 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Atalanta | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 38 scored, 17 conceded (94) | 705 scored, 705 conceded (2430) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 12 scored, 7 conceded (35) | 248 scored, 226 conceded (825) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 14 scored, 7 conceded (31) | 231 scored, 231 conceded (780) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 12 scored, 3 conceded (28) | 226 scored, 248 conceded (825) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 45 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 23(league sides: 1,248 times, within 15 minutes 183, by full time 552)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 19 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 26 Oct 2024
| Atalanta | Frosinone | |
|---|---|---|
| 75 | Matches with xG | — |
| 115.85 | xG for | — |
| 121 | Goals scored | — |
| 87.07 | xG against | — |
| 71 | Goals conceded | — |
Atalanta
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2026 | at AC Milan | 1.74 | 2.58 | 2–3 |
| 12 Oct 2026 | v Venezia | 2.19 | 2.48 | 3–1 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | at Juventus | 0.60 | 1.31 | 0–2 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Cagliari | 1.74 | 1.32 | 1–2 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at AS Roma | 0.70 | 2.97 | 1–2 |
| 31 Aug 2026 | v Bologna | 0.15 | 1.05 | 1–0 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | v Sassuolo | 0.88 | 2.70 | 2–1 |
| 22 May 2026 | at Fiorentina | 1.38 | 0.85 | 1–1 |
| 17 May 2026 | v Bologna | 0.76 | 0.69 | 0–1 |
| 10 May 2026 | at AC Milan | 1.38 | 2.21 | 3–2 |
This league season
Serie A matches since 22 Aug 2026.
| Atalanta | Frosinone | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 of 7 | Matches with xG | 7 of 7 |
| 9 | Points in those matches | 13 |
| 5.89 | xPts | 7.29 |
| 8.00 | xG for | 11.13 |
| 14.41 | xG against | 15.64 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Atalanta and Frosinone
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- I. Hien (Muscle Injury) · F. Kessie (Calf Injury) · S. Kolasinac (Thigh Injury) · O. Kossounou (Thigh Injury) · G. Raspadori (Thigh Injury) · G. Scalvini (Thigh Injury) · K. Sulemana (Knee Injury)
- Ruled out
- F. Grillitsch (Thigh Injury)
Published 25 Oct 2026, 12:58 GMT · not changed since
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