Atalanta v Venezia match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Mon 12 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Atalanta are favoured at 43% to beat Venezia, who arrive on five straight defeats with a lengthy injury list. The model expects 2.8 goals total with Atalanta holding a slight attacking advantage, though both sides are significantly depleted.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 43%Atalanta win
- 27%Draw
- 30%Venezia win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
AtalantaLast 5: 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats
VeneziaLast 5: no wins, no draws, 5 defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Atalanta won 39 of 49 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
- Venezia won 25 of 42 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
- Atalanta won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
5 meetings: Atalanta 4, draws 1, Venezia 0
Goals: Atalanta 11, Venezia 1
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Mar 2025 | Atalanta v Venezia | 0–0 |
| 20 Oct 2024 | Venezia v Atalanta | 0–2 |
| 23 Apr 2022 | Venezia v Atalanta | 1–3 |
| 12 Jan 2022 | Atalanta v VeneziaCoppa Italia | 2–0 |
| 30 Nov 2021 | Atalanta v Venezia | 4–0 |
Home and away
AtalantaAtalanta at home
Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost
- LostCagliari12 Sep 20261–2
- WonBologna31 Aug 20261–0
- WonSassuolo23 Aug 20262–1
- DrawnHapoel Tel AvivUEFA Europa Conference League20 Aug 20260–0
- LostBologna17 May 20260–1
Atalanta: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 11 scored, 9 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
VeneziaVenezia away
Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost
- LostFrosinone6 Sep 20262–3
- LostUdineseCoppa Italia2 Sep 20261–2
- LostAC Milan28 Aug 20260–2
- DrawnSpeziaSerie B · Italy1 May 20262–2
- WonBariSerie B · Italy18 Apr 20263–0
Venezia: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 16 scored, 11 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Atalanta- Last match
- 22 days before20 Sep 2026 · v Juventus · Serie A
- Next match
- 3 days after15 Oct 2026 · v Pafos · UEFA Europa Conference League
Venezia- Last match
- 23 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Lazio · Serie A
- Next match
- 5 days after17 Oct 2026 · v Napoli · Serie A
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 20 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Atalanta
| Score | Atalanta | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 39 won, 6 drawn, 4 lost in 49 matches | 744 won, 236 drawn, 123 lost in 1103 matches |
| Conceded first | 7 won, 11 drawn, 22 lost in 40 matches | 123 won, 236 drawn, 744 lost in 1103 matches |
| Level at half-time | 11 won, 18 drawn, 11 lost in 40 matches | 315 won, 394 drawn, 315 lost in 1024 matches |
| 2+ goals up after 60 minutes | 21 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches | 228 won, 17 drawn, 3 lost in 248 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 13 won, 17 drawn, 7 lost in 37 matches | 235 won, 406 drawn, 235 lost in 876 matches |
| 2+ goals up after 70 minutes | 22 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 22 matches | 280 won, 13 drawn, 1 lost in 294 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 9 won, 19 drawn, 3 lost in 31 matches | 179 won, 448 drawn, 179 lost in 806 matches |
| 2+ goals up after 80 minutes | 24 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches | 318 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 322 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 10 won, 20 drawn, 2 lost in 32 matches | 109 won, 486 drawn, 109 lost in 704 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 28 won, 22 drawn, 19 lost in 69 matches | 606 won, 534 drawn, 606 lost in 1746 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 18 won, 19 drawn, 11 lost in 48 matches | 442 won, 424 drawn, 442 lost in 1308 matches |
| 1 goal down after 30 minutes | 4 won, 5 drawn, 11 lost in 20 matches | 57 won, 109 drawn, 289 lost in 455 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Atalanta | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 42 scored, 18 conceded (97) | 695 scored, 695 conceded (2396) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 16 scored, 7 conceded (37) | 243 scored, 223 conceded (809) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 15 scored, 8 conceded (33) | 229 scored, 229 conceded (778) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 11 scored, 3 conceded (27) | 223 scored, 243 conceded (809) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 45 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 24(league sides: 1,227 times, within 15 minutes 180, by full time 547)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Venezia
| Score | Venezia | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 25 won, 12 drawn, 5 lost in 42 matches | 744 won, 236 drawn, 123 lost in 1103 matches |
| Conceded first | 5 won, 5 drawn, 20 lost in 30 matches | 123 won, 236 drawn, 744 lost in 1103 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 14 won, 8 drawn, 0 lost in 22 matches | 329 won, 121 drawn, 56 lost in 506 matches |
| Level at half-time | 6 won, 13 drawn, 15 lost in 34 matches | 315 won, 394 drawn, 315 lost in 1024 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 5 won, 13 drawn, 9 lost in 27 matches | 235 won, 406 drawn, 235 lost in 876 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 6 won, 18 drawn, 4 lost in 28 matches | 179 won, 448 drawn, 179 lost in 806 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 3 won, 20 drawn, 3 lost in 26 matches | 109 won, 486 drawn, 109 lost in 704 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 24 won, 19 drawn, 18 lost in 61 matches | 606 won, 534 drawn, 606 lost in 1746 matches |
| 1 goal up after 30 minutes | 10 won, 8 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches | 289 won, 109 drawn, 57 lost in 455 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 17 won, 14 drawn, 14 lost in 45 matches | 442 won, 424 drawn, 442 lost in 1308 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Venezia | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 21 scored, 24 conceded (78) | 695 scored, 695 conceded (2396) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 12 conceded (29) | 243 scored, 223 conceded (809) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 8 scored, 7 conceded (27) | 229 scored, 229 conceded (778) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 6 scored, 5 conceded (22) | 223 scored, 243 conceded (809) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 35 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 16(league sides: 1,227 times, within 15 minutes 180, by full time 547)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 19 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 20 Oct 2024
| Atalanta | Venezia | |
|---|---|---|
| 74 | Matches with xG | 36 |
| 113.32 | xG for | 38.25 |
| 118 | Goals scored | 31 |
| 82.80 | xG against | 58.03 |
| 67 | Goals conceded | 57 |
Atalanta
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | at Juventus | 0.60 | 1.31 | 0–2 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Cagliari | 1.74 | 1.32 | 1–2 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at AS Roma | 0.70 | 2.97 | 1–2 |
| 31 Aug 2026 | v Bologna | 0.15 | 1.05 | 1–0 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | v Sassuolo | 0.88 | 2.70 | 2–1 |
| 22 May 2026 | at Fiorentina | 1.38 | 0.85 | 1–1 |
| 17 May 2026 | v Bologna | 0.76 | 0.69 | 0–1 |
| 10 May 2026 | at AC Milan | 1.38 | 2.21 | 3–2 |
| 2 May 2026 | v Genoa | 1.96 | 0.52 | 0–0 |
| 27 Apr 2026 | at Cagliari | 1.18 | 1.56 | 2–3 |
Venezia
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Lazio | 1.89 | 1.60 | 0–2 |
| 11 Sep 2026 | v Fiorentina | 0.49 | 3.31 | 2–4 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | at Frosinone | 2.17 | 1.90 | 2–3 |
| 28 Aug 2026 | at AC Milan | 0.80 | 2.21 | 0–2 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | v Lecce | 2.05 | 2.70 | 0–2 |
| 25 May 2025 | v Juventus | 0.88 | 1.96 | 2–3 |
| 18 May 2025 | at Cagliari | 0.68 | 1.52 | 0–3 |
| 12 May 2025 | v Fiorentina | 1.87 | 0.94 | 2–1 |
| 2 May 2025 | at Torino | 0.66 | 2.13 | 1–1 |
| 27 Apr 2025 | v AC Milan | 1.22 | 1.61 | 0–2 |
This league season
Serie A matches since 22 Aug 2026.
| Atalanta | Venezia | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 of 5 | Matches with xG | 5 of 5 |
| 6 | Points in those matches | 0 |
| 3.69 | xPts | 4.89 |
| 4.07 | xG for | 7.40 |
| 9.35 | xG against | 11.72 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Atalanta and Venezia
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- I. Hien (Muscle Injury) · O. Kossounou (Thigh Injury) · K. Sulemana (Knee Injury)
- Doubtful
- G. Raspadori (Thigh Injury)
- Ruled out
- A. Adorante (Hernia) · A. Bella-Kotchap (Thigh Injury) · G. Busio (Thigh Injury) · B. Franjic (Shoulder Injury) · P. Mazzocchi (Injury) · M. Sverko (Hip Injury)
Published 12 Oct 2026, 17:07 BST · not changed since
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