Athletic Club v Getafe match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 25 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Athletic Club are slight favourites against Getafe, with the model giving them a 45% chance of winning. Expected goals suggest Athletic should create more, but both sides arrive with substantial injury concerns that may affect their approach.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 46%Athletic Club win
- 30%Draw
- 24%Getafe win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
Athletic ClubLast 5: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 defeat
GetafeLast 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Athletic Club won 29 of 36 matches in which they scored first, since 28 Oct 2024.
- Getafe won 25 of 32 matches in which they scored first, since 27 Oct 2024.
- Getafe without a win in their last 5 away games.
- Under 2.5 goals in 7 of Getafe's last 10 away league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
10 meetings: Athletic Club 2, draws 6, Getafe 2
Goals: Athletic Club 10, Getafe 9
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 5 Apr 2026 | Getafe v Athletic Club | 2–0 |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Athletic Club v Getafe | 0–1 |
| 15 May 2025 | Getafe v Athletic Club | 0–2 |
| 15 Aug 2024 | Athletic Club v Getafe | 1–1 |
| 3 May 2024 | Getafe v Athletic Club | 0–2 |
| 27 Sep 2023 | Athletic Club v Getafe | 2–2 |
| 1 Apr 2023 | Athletic Club v Getafe | 0–0 |
| 18 Oct 2022 | Getafe v Athletic Club | 2–2 |
| 18 Mar 2022 | Athletic Club v Getafe | 1–1 |
| 6 Dec 2021 | Getafe v Athletic Club | 0–0 |
Home and away
Athletic ClubAthletic Club at home
Last 5: 1 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost
- DrawnAlaves19 Sep 20260–0
- DrawnElche12 Sep 20261–1
- WonAtletico Madrid5 Sep 20263–0
- LostSevilla22 Aug 20261–3
- DrawnCelta Vigo17 May 20261–1
Athletic Club: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 10 scored, 10 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 4 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
GetafeGetafe away
Last 5: 0 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost
- DrawnUniversitatea CraiovaUEFA Europa Conference League15 Oct 20261–1
- LostBarcelona10 Oct 20260–3
- LostReal Betis17 Sep 20260–1
- LostOsasuna31 Aug 20260–1
- LostFK PartizanUEFA Europa Conference League27 Aug 20261–2
Getafe: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 3 scored, 12 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 1 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 3 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Athletic Club- Last match
- 4 days before21 Oct 2026 · v Levante · La Liga
- Next match
- 4 days after29 Oct 2026 · v Prat · Copa del Rey
Getafe- Last match
- 3 days before22 Oct 2026 · v FC Lugano · UEFA Europa Conference League
- Next match
- 4 days after29 Oct 2026 · v Lebrijana · Copa del Rey
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Athletic Club
Since 28 Oct 2024
| Score | Athletic Club | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 29 won, 1 drawn, 6 lost in 36 matches | 766 won, 248 drawn, 145 lost in 1159 matches |
| Conceded first | 8 won, 11 drawn, 27 lost in 46 matches | 145 won, 248 drawn, 766 lost in 1159 matches |
| Level at half-time | 13 won, 16 drawn, 17 lost in 46 matches | 346 won, 376 drawn, 346 lost in 1068 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 14 won, 17 drawn, 11 lost in 42 matches | 265 won, 384 drawn, 265 lost in 914 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 10 won, 19 drawn, 8 lost in 37 matches | 208 won, 422 drawn, 208 lost in 838 matches |
| 1 goal down after 70 minutes | 2 won, 4 drawn, 15 lost in 21 matches | 26 won, 105 drawn, 398 lost in 529 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 6 won, 21 drawn, 4 lost in 31 matches | 154 won, 454 drawn, 154 lost in 762 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 0 won, 2 drawn, 18 lost in 20 matches | 12 won, 90 drawn, 412 lost in 514 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 27 won, 19 drawn, 25 lost in 71 matches | 647 won, 490 drawn, 647 lost in 1784 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 16 won, 19 drawn, 18 lost in 53 matches | 477 won, 426 drawn, 477 lost in 1380 matches |
| 1 goal down after 30 minutes | 7 won, 3 drawn, 11 lost in 21 matches | 61 won, 102 drawn, 294 lost in 457 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Athletic Club | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 31 scored, 32 conceded (93) | 798 scored, 798 conceded (2468) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 12 scored, 7 conceded (29) | 284 scored, 278 conceded (836) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 12 scored, 8 conceded (33) | 236 scored, 236 conceded (796) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 17 conceded (31) | 278 scored, 284 conceded (836) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 52 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 25(league sides: 1,300 times, within 15 minutes 213, by full time 607)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Getafe
Since 27 Oct 2024
| Score | Getafe | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 25 won, 4 drawn, 3 lost in 32 matches | 766 won, 248 drawn, 145 lost in 1159 matches |
| Conceded first | 2 won, 5 drawn, 33 lost in 40 matches | 145 won, 248 drawn, 766 lost in 1159 matches |
| Level at half-time | 14 won, 7 drawn, 13 lost in 34 matches | 346 won, 376 drawn, 346 lost in 1068 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 1 won, 4 drawn, 18 lost in 23 matches | 61 won, 127 drawn, 328 lost in 516 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 10 won, 9 drawn, 12 lost in 31 matches | 265 won, 384 drawn, 265 lost in 914 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 0 won, 2 drawn, 18 lost in 20 matches | 39 won, 121 drawn, 367 lost in 527 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 7 won, 7 drawn, 9 lost in 23 matches | 208 won, 422 drawn, 208 lost in 838 matches |
| 1 goal down after 70 minutes | 0 won, 2 drawn, 20 lost in 22 matches | 26 won, 105 drawn, 398 lost in 529 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 1 won, 2 drawn, 20 lost in 23 matches | 12 won, 90 drawn, 412 lost in 514 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 21 won, 10 drawn, 27 lost in 58 matches | 647 won, 490 drawn, 647 lost in 1784 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 19 won, 8 drawn, 21 lost in 48 matches | 477 won, 426 drawn, 477 lost in 1380 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Getafe | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 13 scored, 20 conceded (75) | 798 scored, 798 conceded (2468) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 5 scored, 6 conceded (26) | 284 scored, 278 conceded (836) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 6 scored, 5 conceded (31) | 278 scored, 284 conceded (836) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 36 times, equalised within 15 minutes 3, by full time 9(league sides: 1,300 times, within 15 minutes 213, by full time 607)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Athletic Club | Getafe | |
|---|---|---|
| 74Since 28 Oct 2024 | Matches with xG | 75Since 27 Oct 2024 |
| 102.75 | xG for | 62.11 |
| 88 | Goals scored | 64 |
| 79.66 | xG against | 90.91 |
| 85 | Goals conceded | 80 |
Athletic Club
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Oct 2026 | at Levante | 1.95 | 2.04 | 1–3 |
| 17 Oct 2026 | at Valencia | 0.65 | 1.49 | 0–0 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Alaves | 1.62 | 0.05 | 0–0 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Elche | 2.39 | 0.84 | 1–1 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Atletico Madrid | 1.41 | 1.02 | 3–0 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | at Celta Vigo | 2.78 | 0.75 | 2–0 |
| 27 Aug 2026 | at Barcelona | 0.25 | 4.23 | 0–2 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Sevilla | 1.25 | 0.41 | 1–3 |
| 23 May 2026 | at Real Madrid | 0.81 | 1.90 | 2–4 |
| 17 May 2026 | v Celta Vigo | 2.49 | 0.15 | 1–1 |
Getafe
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Oct 2026 | v Rayo Vallecano | 0.61 | 2.26 | 1–1 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | at Barcelona | 0.14 | 1.93 | 0–3 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | v Malaga | 0.95 | 0.52 | 1–0 |
| 17 Sep 2026 | at Real Betis | 0.29 | 1.89 | 0–1 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | v Deportivo La Coruna | 0.78 | 0.87 | 1–1 |
| 7 Sep 2026 | v Celta Vigo | 0.65 | 1.03 | 1–1 |
| 31 Aug 2026 | at Osasuna | 0.68 | 1.68 | 0–1 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | v Racing Santander | 1.24 | 1.31 | 1–0 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | at Alaves | 0.24 | 1.93 | 0–3 |
| 23 May 2026 | v Osasuna | 0.21 | 0.51 | 1–0 |
This league season
La Liga matches since 15 Aug 2026.
| Athletic Club | Getafe | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 of 8 | Matches with xG | 9 of 9 |
| 9 | Points in those matches | 9 |
| 13.22 | xPts | 7.23 |
| 12.30 | xG for | 5.58 |
| 10.83 | xG against | 13.42 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Athletic Club and Getafe
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- U. Egiluz (Knee Injury) · G. Guruzeta (Knee Injury) · A. Laporte (Red Card) · O. Sancet (Muscle Injury)
- Ruled out
- Djene (Red Card) · Juanmi (Knee Injury) · O. Mangala (Muscle Injury) · Z. Romero (Muscle Injury) · C. Uche (Knee Injury)
Published 25 Oct 2026, 11:58 GMT · not changed since
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