Atletico Madrid v Deportivo La Coruna match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 24 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
The model gives Atletico Madrid a 70% chance of winning against Deportivo La Coruna. The model expects 2.98 goals total in the match, with Atletico vastly outperforming their visitors in expected goals (2.21 to 0.77).
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 70%Atletico Madrid win
- 19%Draw
- 11%Deportivo La Coruna win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
Atletico MadridLast 5: 4 wins, 1 draw, no defeats
Deportivo La CorunaLast 5: no wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- La Liga, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 251 of 316.
- Atletico Madrid unbeaten in their last 5 home games.
- Under 2.5 goals in 7 of Deportivo La Coruna's last 10 away league games.
- Both teams scored in 8 of Deportivo La Coruna's last 10 away league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
1 meeting: Atletico Madrid 1, draws 0, Deportivo La Coruna 0
Goals: Atletico Madrid 1, Deportivo La Coruna 0
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 13 Jan 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna v Atletico MadridCopa del Rey | 0–1 |
Home and away
Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid at home
Last 5: 4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost
- WonManchester UnitedUEFA Champions League13 Oct 20262–0
- WonReal Madrid20 Sep 20262–1
- WonOsasuna16 Sep 20264–0
- DrawnVillarreal23 Aug 20262–2
- WonMalaga19 Aug 20262–0
Atletico Madrid: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 19 scored, 10 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 10
Deportivo La CorunaDeportivo La Coruna away
Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost
- LostReal Sociedad11 Oct 20262–3
- DrawnGetafe13 Sep 20261–1
- WonVillarreal5 Sep 20263–2
- DrawnMalaga24 Aug 20261–1
- WonValladolidSegunda División24 May 20262–0
Deportivo La Coruna: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 15 scored, 11 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 8 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 3 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Atletico Madrid- Last match
- 4 days before20 Oct 2026 · v VfB Stuttgart · UEFA Champions League
- Next match
- 7 days after31 Oct 2026 · v Levante · La Liga
Deportivo La Coruna- Last match
- 8 days before16 Oct 2026 · v Levante · La Liga
- Next match
- 5 days after29 Oct 2026 · v Auriense · Copa del Rey
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 27 Oct 2024
| Atletico Madrid | Deportivo La Coruna | |
|---|---|---|
| 75 | Matches with xG | — |
| 122.86 | xG for | — |
| 133 | Goals scored | — |
| 83.24 | xG against | — |
| 76 | Goals conceded | — |
Atletico Madrid
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 2026 | at Espanyol | 1.41 | 0.61 | 1–0 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | at Alaves | 2.05 | 1.30 | 2–1 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | v Real Madrid | 2.35 | 0.30 | 2–1 |
| 16 Sep 2026 | v Osasuna | 3.99 | 0.48 | 4–0 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | at Real Sociedad | 2.05 | 0.27 | 3–0 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at Athletic Club | 1.02 | 1.41 | 0–3 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at Sevilla | 0.93 | 0.90 | 3–1 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | v Villarreal | 0.78 | 3.60 | 2–2 |
| 19 Aug 2026 | v Malaga | 0.92 | 0.15 | 2–0 |
| 24 May 2026 | at Villarreal | 1.16 | 2.48 | 1–5 |
This league season
La Liga matches since 15 Aug 2026.
| Atletico Madrid | Deportivo La Coruna | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 of 9 | Matches with xG | 9 of 9 |
| 22 | Points in those matches | 11 |
| 16.58 | xPts | 11.60 |
| 15.50 | xG for | 10.05 |
| 9.02 | xG against | 10.32 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Atletico Madrid and Deportivo La Coruna
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- J. Cardoso (Thigh Injury) · Koke (Muscle Injury) · C. Romero (Muscle Injury)
- Ruled out
- P. Aubameyang (Knee Injury) · N. Carrillo (Muscle Injury) · M. Casado (Collarbone injury) · Z. Eddahchouri (Wrist Injury) · B. Ede (Hamstring Injury)
Published 24 Oct 2026, 18:58 BST · not changed since
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