Auxerre v Le Mans match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 25 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Auxerre are slight favourites at home with a 45% chance of winning, but Le Mans have a genuine opportunity with a 28% chance. The model expects just 2.76 goals in total.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 45%Auxerre win
- 27%Draw
- 28%Le Mans win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
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Form · newest first
AuxerreLast 5: 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats
Le MansLast 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats
Head-to-head
Head-to-head data was not available for this match.
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Auxerre won 17 of 28 matches in which they scored first, since 27 Oct 2024.
- Ligue 1, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 183 of 235.
- Both teams scored in 7 of Le Mans's last 10 away league games.
Home and away
AuxerreAuxerre at home
Last 5: 4 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost
- WonStade Brestois 2920 Sep 20262–1
- WonNice12 Sep 20261–0
- LostAngers29 Aug 20261–3
- WonNice10 May 20262–1
- WonAngers3 May 20263–1
Auxerre: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 12 scored, 9 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 4 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 10
Le MansLe Mans away
Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost
- LostParis Saint Germain10 Oct 20261–3
- DrawnNice5 Sep 20261–1
- LostRennes30 Aug 20262–3
- WonBastiaLigue 29 May 20262–0
- DrawnGrenobleLigue 225 Apr 20261–1
Le Mans: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 17 scored, 17 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 7 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Auxerre- Last match
- 7 days before18 Oct 2026 · v Le Havre · Ligue 1
- Next match
- 7 days after1 Nov 2026 · v Strasbourg · Ligue 1
Le Mans- Last match
- 9 days before16 Oct 2026 · v Toulouse · Ligue 1
- Next match
- 6 days after31 Oct 2026 · v Estac Troyes · Ligue 1
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 27 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Auxerre
| Score | Auxerre | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 17 won, 8 drawn, 3 lost in 28 matches | 639 won, 166 drawn, 115 lost in 920 matches |
| Conceded first | 2 won, 4 drawn, 26 lost in 32 matches | 115 won, 166 drawn, 639 lost in 920 matches |
| Level at half-time | 6 won, 13 drawn, 13 lost in 32 matches | 255 won, 276 drawn, 255 lost in 786 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 6 won, 15 drawn, 10 lost in 31 matches | 177 won, 282 drawn, 177 lost in 636 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 5 won, 15 drawn, 4 lost in 24 matches | 142 won, 298 drawn, 142 lost in 582 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 4 won, 17 drawn, 3 lost in 24 matches | 120 won, 334 drawn, 120 lost in 574 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 14 won, 15 drawn, 20 lost in 49 matches | 517 won, 354 drawn, 517 lost in 1388 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 12 won, 15 drawn, 15 lost in 42 matches | 352 won, 314 drawn, 352 lost in 1018 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Auxerre | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 17 scored, 24 conceded (67) | 659 scored, 659 conceded (1978) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 4 scored, 4 conceded (24) | 160 scored, 160 conceded (558) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 4 scored, 11 conceded (24) | 222 scored, 277 conceded (710) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 40 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 17(league sides: 1,073 times, within 15 minutes 163, by full time 471)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 27 Oct 2024
| Auxerre | Le Mans | |
|---|---|---|
| 67 | Matches with xG | — |
| 77.25 | xG for | — |
| 82 | Goals scored | — |
| 106.11 | xG against | — |
| 96 | Goals conceded | — |
Auxerre
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2026 | at Le Havre | 2.70 | 1.40 | 3–1 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | at Rennes | 1.76 | 2.56 | 1–4 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | v Stade Brestois 29 | 0.96 | 0.34 | 2–1 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Nice | 1.74 | 1.08 | 1–0 |
| 4 Sep 2026 | at Lyon | 0.71 | 2.85 | 1–3 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v Angers | 1.81 | 1.55 | 1–3 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at Lens | 1.84 | 4.41 | 2–5 |
| 17 May 2026 | at Lille | 0.54 | 1.72 | 2–0 |
| 10 May 2026 | v Nice | 0.84 | 1.33 | 2–1 |
| 3 May 2026 | v Angers | 2.03 | 2.20 | 3–1 |
This league season
Ligue 1 matches since 21 Aug 2026.
| Auxerre | Le Mans | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 of 7 | Matches with xG | 7 of 7 |
| 9 | Points in those matches | 6 |
| 9.06 | xPts | 7.57 |
| 11.52 | xG for | 10.93 |
| 14.19 | xG against | 15.63 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Auxerre and Le Mans
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- A. Diousse (Knee Injury) · S. Fofana (Groin Injury) · R. Labeau Lascary (Injury) · B. Okoh (Knee Injury) · M. Senaya (Hamstring Injury) · T. Siwe (Muscle Injury)
- Ruled out
- A. Bourabaa (Ankle Injury) · E. Colas (Injury) · Y. Larouci (Groin Injury) · H. Voyer (Thigh Injury)
Published 25 Oct 2026, 15:13 GMT · not changed since
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