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Eredivisie
AZ Alkmaar
15:45
Groningen
Sun 8 Nov 2026 · GMTMatchday 12 · AFAS Stadion（Alkmaar）, Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar v Groningen · analysis and preview

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Most likely: AZ Alkmaar win

The model gives AZ Alkmaar a 58% chance of winning at home against Groningen, with an expected-goals gap of 0.9 in AZ's favour. AZ have won 1 of their last 5 matches (one draw, three losses), while Groningen have won 1 of their last 5 (one draw, three losses). Groningen's 3-0 victory over AZ in March is a notable recent result between these sides.

How the match could end · our estimate

  • 58%AZ Alkmaar win
  • 22%Draw
  • 20%Groningen win

PRO analysis

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar

Last 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats

  1. lost1–2v Juventus
  2. lost0–1at Ajax
  3. lost0–2v Twente
  4. won4–0at Ararat-Armenia
  5. drew2–2at Cambuur
GroningenGroningen

Last 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats

  1. lost2–3v Sparta Rotterdam
  2. lost0–2v Emmen
  3. drew2–2at NEC Nijmegen
  4. lost2–5v Ajax
  5. won5–1at Excelsior

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Provisional: a recent score not yet confirmed.

Trends

  • Eredivisie, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 163 of 223.
  • Groningen won 25 of 37 matches in which they scored first, since 9 Nov 2024.
  • AZ Alkmaar won 6 of the last 9 meetings.
  • Both teams scored in 8 of Groningen's last 10 away league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

9 meetings: AZ Alkmaar 6, draws 1, Groningen 2

Goals: AZ Alkmaar 16, Groningen 8

DateMatchScore
22 Mar 2026Groningen v AZ Alkmaar3–0
10 Aug 2025AZ Alkmaar v Groningen4–1
11 May 2025AZ Alkmaar v Groningen3–0
18 Dec 2024AZ Alkmaar v GroningenKNVB Beker3–1
25 Aug 2024Groningen v AZ Alkmaar0–0
11 Mar 2023AZ Alkmaar v Groningen1–0
1 Oct 2022Groningen v AZ Alkmaar1–4
21 Dec 2021AZ Alkmaar v Groningen1–0
24 Oct 2021Groningen v AZ Alkmaar2–0

Home and away

AZ Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar at home

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • LostJuventusProvisionalUEFA Europa League5 Nov 20261–2
  • LostTwente25 Oct 20260–2
  • WonHapoel Beer ShevaUEFA Europa League15 Oct 20262–1
  • WonTelstar20 Sep 20261–0
  • DrawnWillem II11 Sep 20261–1

AZ Alkmaar: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
23 scored, 10 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
4 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
5 of 10
Groningen

Groningen away

Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost

  • DrawnNEC Nijmegen25 Oct 20262–2
  • WonExcelsior11 Oct 20265–1
  • DrawnGO Ahead Eagles12 Sep 20261–1
  • LostPSV Eindhoven23 Aug 20261–5
  • WonADO Den Haag16 Aug 20264–1

Groningen: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
19 scored, 17 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

AZ Alkmaar
Last match
3 days before5 Nov 2026 · v Juventus · UEFA Europa League
Next match
Not known
Groningen
Last match
7 days before1 Nov 2026 · v Sparta Rotterdam · Eredivisie
Next match
Not known

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 9 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Groningen

ScoreGroningenLeague sides
Scored first25 won, 4 drawn, 8 lost in 37 matches658 won, 229 drawn, 121 lost in 1008 matches
Conceded first1 won, 7 drawn, 21 lost in 29 matches121 won, 229 drawn, 658 lost in 1008 matches
Level at half-time8 won, 10 drawn, 11 lost in 29 matches234 won, 302 drawn, 234 lost in 770 matches
Level after 15 minutes14 won, 12 drawn, 17 lost in 43 matches492 won, 400 drawn, 492 lost in 1384 matches
Level after 30 minutes15 won, 10 drawn, 11 lost in 36 matches344 won, 320 drawn, 344 lost in 1008 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreGroningenLeague sides
All matches20 scored, 20 conceded (70)767 scored, 767 conceded (2098)
When leading after 75 minutes10 scored, 7 conceded (27)338 scored, 243 conceded (781)
When trailing after 75 minutes7 scored, 8 conceded (26)243 scored, 338 conceded (781)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 37 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 14(league sides: 1,198 times, within 15 minutes 202, by full time 552)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

AZ AlkmaarGroningen
69Since 10 Nov 2024Matches with xG69Since 9 Nov 2024
125.07xG for108.27
120Goals scored104
79.05xG against100.68
91Goals conceded105

AZ Alkmaar

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
AZ Alkmaar: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
31 Oct 2026at Ajax2.320.770–1
25 Oct 2026v Twente1.242.040–2
18 Oct 2026at Cambuur1.561.532–2
10 Oct 2026at Feyenoord0.772.300–2
20 Sep 2026v Telstar2.350.101–0
11 Sep 2026v Willem II2.480.931–1
6 Sep 2026at Heerenveen1.041.483–2
29 Aug 2026v GO Ahead Eagles2.371.665–2
22 Aug 2026at Fortuna Sittard4.350.442–0
15 Aug 2026at Utrecht2.100.914–1

Groningen

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Groningen: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
1 Nov 2026v Sparta Rotterdam2.682.462–3
25 Oct 2026at NEC Nijmegen1.451.802–2
18 Oct 2026v Ajax2.293.042–5
11 Oct 2026at Excelsior3.061.745–1
18 Sep 2026v PEC Zwolle1.390.433–0
12 Sep 2026at GO Ahead Eagles0.162.231–1
6 Sep 2026v Twente1.482.302–2
28 Aug 2026v Fortuna Sittard1.600.882–3
23 Aug 2026at PSV Eindhoven1.094.401–5
16 Aug 2026at ADO Den Haag3.201.014–1

AZ Alkmaar: 1 without xG left out

This league season

Eredivisie matches since 7 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

AZ AlkmaarGroningen
11 of 11Matches with xG11 of 11
20Points in those matches15
20.47xPts14.60
23.25xG for19.95
13.11xG against22.56

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: AZ Alkmaar and Groningen

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

Team news not available yet.

Updated 6 Nov 2026, 18:48 GMT

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