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Eredivisie
AZ Alkmaar
0–2Finished
Twente
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 19:00 GMTMatchday 10 · AFAS Stadion（Alkmaar）, Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar v Twente match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 25 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

AZ Alkmaar hold a 46% chance of winning according to the model, compared to Twente's 29%, with 25% for a draw. AZ have won three of their last five matches while Twente's run of four wins in five ended with a recent loss. Both teams face multiple absences due to injury.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 46%AZ Alkmaar win
  • 25%Draw
  • 29%Twente win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

TwenteTwente

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Eredivisie, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 160 of 219.
  • Twente won 29 of 47 matches in which they scored first, since 27 Oct 2024.
  • AZ Alkmaar won 4 of the last 10 meetings.
  • AZ Alkmaar unbeaten in their last 5 home games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: AZ Alkmaar 4, draws 3, Twente 3

Goals: AZ Alkmaar 15, Twente 14

DateMatchScore
3 May 2026AZ Alkmaar v Twente2–2
3 Feb 2026AZ Alkmaar v TwenteKNVB Beker1–1 AET 2–1
30 Nov 2025Twente v AZ Alkmaar1–0
25 May 2025AZ Alkmaar v Twente3–2
14 May 2025Twente v AZ Alkmaar2–3
21 Dec 2024AZ Alkmaar v Twente1–0
5 May 2024AZ Alkmaar v Twente2–1
13 Jan 2024Twente v AZ Alkmaar2–1
19 Mar 2023Twente v AZ Alkmaar2–1
11 Sep 2022AZ Alkmaar v Twente1–1

Home and away

AZ Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar at home

Last 5: 4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost

  • WonHapoel Beer ShevaUEFA Europa League15 Oct 20262–1
  • WonTelstar20 Sep 20261–0
  • DrawnWillem II11 Sep 20261–1
  • WonGO Ahead Eagles29 Aug 20265–2
  • WonADO Den Haag8 Aug 20262–0

AZ Alkmaar: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
26 scored, 9 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
5 of 10
Twente

Twente away

Last 5: 3 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost

  • WonLincoln Red Imps FCUEFA Europa Conference League22 Oct 20264–1
  • DrawnFortuna Sittard10 Oct 20261–1
  • DrawnGroningen6 Sep 20262–2
  • WonCambuur30 Aug 20264–1
  • WonQarabagUEFA Europa Conference League27 Aug 20262–1 AET 4–1

Twente: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
19 scored, 16 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
9 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
0 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

AZ Alkmaar
Last match
3 days before22 Oct 2026 · v Ararat-Armenia · UEFA Europa League
Next match
6 days after31 Oct 2026 · v Ajax · Eredivisie
Twente
Last match
3 days before22 Oct 2026 · v Lincoln Red Imps FC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Next match
7 days after1 Nov 2026 · v Excelsior · Eredivisie

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 27 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Twente

ScoreTwenteLeague sides
Scored first29 won, 12 drawn, 6 lost in 47 matches650 won, 228 drawn, 120 lost in 998 matches
Conceded first5 won, 10 drawn, 14 lost in 29 matches120 won, 228 drawn, 650 lost in 998 matches
1 goal up at half-time11 won, 7 drawn, 4 lost in 22 matches298 won, 104 drawn, 53 lost in 455 matches
Level at half-time12 won, 14 drawn, 6 lost in 32 matches231 won, 300 drawn, 231 lost in 762 matches
Level after 60 minutes7 won, 12 drawn, 6 lost in 25 matches168 won, 290 drawn, 168 lost in 626 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes12 won, 8 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches276 won, 96 drawn, 18 lost in 390 matches
Level after 70 minutes4 won, 12 drawn, 5 lost in 21 matches122 won, 324 drawn, 122 lost in 568 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes14 won, 7 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches308 won, 94 drawn, 4 lost in 406 matches
Level after 80 minutes3 won, 14 drawn, 3 lost in 20 matches76 won, 344 drawn, 76 lost in 496 matches
Level after 15 minutes27 won, 17 drawn, 10 lost in 54 matches487 won, 398 drawn, 487 lost in 1372 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes13 won, 5 drawn, 5 lost in 23 matches265 won, 100 drawn, 62 lost in 427 matches
Level after 30 minutes14 won, 12 drawn, 7 lost in 33 matches340 won, 318 drawn, 340 lost in 998 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreTwenteLeague sides
All matches30 scored, 24 conceded (79)759 scored, 759 conceded (2078)
When leading after 75 minutes13 scored, 12 conceded (36)334 scored, 242 conceded (773)
When level after 75 minutes7 scored, 7 conceded (21)183 scored, 183 conceded (532)
When trailing after 75 minutes10 scored, 5 conceded (22)242 scored, 334 conceded (773)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 37 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 21(league sides: 1,188 times, within 15 minutes 200, by full time 549)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 27 Oct 2024

AZ AlkmaarTwente
69Matches with xG69
124.98xG for123.46
124Goals scored124
79.69xG against84.66
93Goals conceded93

AZ Alkmaar

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
AZ Alkmaar: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
18 Oct 2026at Cambuur1.561.532–2
10 Oct 2026at Feyenoord0.772.300–2
20 Sep 2026v Telstar2.350.101–0
11 Sep 2026v Willem II2.480.931–1
6 Sep 2026at Heerenveen1.041.483–2
29 Aug 2026v GO Ahead Eagles2.371.665–2
22 Aug 2026at Fortuna Sittard4.350.442–0
15 Aug 2026at Utrecht2.100.914–1
8 Aug 2026v ADO Den Haag2.670.952–0
17 May 2026v NAC Breda1.452.083–3

Twente

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Twente: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
18 Oct 2026v Utrecht1.361.251–2
10 Oct 2026at Fortuna Sittard1.150.951–1
20 Sep 2026v PSV Eindhoven2.401.023–2
12 Sep 2026v ADO Den Haag2.810.542–0
9 Sep 2026v Telstar2.650.521–0
6 Sep 2026at Groningen2.301.482–2
30 Aug 2026at Cambuur1.760.474–1
16 Aug 2026v PEC Zwolle2.080.683–1
9 Aug 2026at Heerenveen1.780.390–1
17 May 2026at PSV Eindhoven1.412.491–5

AZ Alkmaar: 1 without xG left outTwente: 1 without xG left out

This league season

Eredivisie matches since 7 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

AZ AlkmaarTwente
9 of 9Matches with xG9 of 9
20Points in those matches17
17.23xPts19.22
19.69xG for18.29
10.30xG against7.30

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: AZ Alkmaar and Twente

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar
    Ruled out
    J. Hornkamp (Injury) · S. Resink (Knee Injury) · K. Smit (Injury)
    Doubtful
    J. Clasie (Knock)
  • TwenteTwente
    Ruled out
    M. Bruns (Inactive) · S. Lemkin (Muscle Injury) · F. Thorvaldsen (Inactive) · L. Unnerstall (Inactive)

Published 25 Oct 2026, 17:58 GMT · not changed since

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