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La Liga
Barcelona
1–2Finished
Real Madrid
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 20:00 GMTMatchday 10 · Spotify Camp Nou, Barcelona

Barcelona v Real Madrid match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 25 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Barcelona are favoured at home with a 55% win chance, though both teams face major injury challenges. Expected goals total 3.45 with Barcelona projected to dominate play by a 0.77 margin. Recent head-to-head meetings have been closely contested, with Barcelona winning 2-0 in May 2026 but losing 2-1 to Real Madrid in October 2025.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 55%Barcelona win
  • 22%Draw
  • 23%Real Madrid win

PRO analysis

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PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

BarcelonaBarcelona

Last 5: 4 wins, no draws, 1 defeat

Real MadridReal Madrid

Last 5: 4 wins, no draws, 1 defeat

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Barcelona won 58 of 68 matches in which they scored first, since 26 Oct 2024.
  • La Liga, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 252 of 317.
  • Barcelona won 5 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Barcelona unbeaten in their last 5 home games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Barcelona 5, draws 1, Real Madrid 4

Goals: Barcelona 19, Real Madrid 17

DateMatchScore
10 May 2026Barcelona v Real Madrid2–0
26 Oct 2025Real Madrid v Barcelona2–1
11 May 2025Barcelona v Real Madrid4–3
26 Apr 2025Barcelona v Real MadridCopa del Rey2–2 AET 3–2
26 Oct 2024Real Madrid v Barcelona0–4
21 Apr 2024Real Madrid v Barcelona3–2
28 Oct 2023Barcelona v Real Madrid1–2
5 Apr 2023Barcelona v Real MadridCopa del Rey0–4
19 Mar 2023Barcelona v Real Madrid2–1
2 Mar 2023Real Madrid v BarcelonaCopa del Rey0–1

Home and away

Barcelona

Barcelona at home

Last 5: 5 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost

  • WonGetafe10 Oct 20263–0
  • WonRacing Santander16 Sep 20267–2
  • WonFeyenoordUEFA Champions League9 Sep 20265–1
  • WonRayo Vallecano31 Aug 20265–2
  • WonAthletic Club27 Aug 20262–0

Barcelona: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
33 scored, 8 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
5 of 10
Real Madrid

Real Madrid away

Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost

  • WonAS RomaUEFA Champions League14 Oct 20264–3
  • LostAtletico Madrid20 Sep 20261–2
  • WonElche15 Sep 20263–2
  • LostReal Betis4 Sep 20260–1
  • WonEspanyol22 Aug 20262–1

Real Madrid: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
13 scored, 12 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Barcelona
Last match
5 days before20 Oct 2026 · v Paris Saint Germain · UEFA Champions League
Next match
6 days after31 Oct 2026 · v Alaves · La Liga
Real Madrid
Last match
4 days before21 Oct 2026 · v RB Leipzig · UEFA Champions League
Next match
7 days after1 Nov 2026 · v Racing Santander · La Liga

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 26 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Barcelona

ScoreBarcelonaLeague sides
Scored first58 won, 6 drawn, 4 lost in 68 matches767 won, 248 drawn, 145 lost in 1160 matches
Conceded first17 won, 4 drawn, 12 lost in 33 matches145 won, 248 drawn, 767 lost in 1160 matches
2+ goals up at half-time23 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches172 won, 8 drawn, 5 lost in 185 matches
1 goal up at half-time21 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost in 26 matches328 won, 127 drawn, 61 lost in 516 matches
Level at half-time24 won, 5 drawn, 4 lost in 33 matches346 won, 378 drawn, 346 lost in 1070 matches
2+ goals up after 60 minutes28 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 28 matches238 won, 10 drawn, 3 lost in 251 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes29 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost in 34 matches367 won, 121 drawn, 39 lost in 527 matches
Level after 60 minutes15 won, 5 drawn, 5 lost in 25 matches265 won, 386 drawn, 265 lost in 916 matches
2+ goals up after 70 minutes37 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost in 38 matches279 won, 7 drawn, 1 lost in 287 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes29 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 29 matches398 won, 105 drawn, 26 lost in 529 matches
Level after 70 minutes7 won, 8 drawn, 7 lost in 22 matches208 won, 424 drawn, 208 lost in 840 matches
2+ goals up after 80 minutes45 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost in 46 matches333 won, 6 drawn, 1 lost in 340 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes21 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches412 won, 90 drawn, 12 lost in 514 matches
Level after 80 minutes8 won, 9 drawn, 4 lost in 21 matches154 won, 456 drawn, 154 lost in 764 matches
1 goal up after 15 minutes26 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost in 29 matches193 won, 76 drawn, 58 lost in 327 matches
Level after 15 minutes41 won, 6 drawn, 12 lost in 59 matches648 won, 492 drawn, 648 lost in 1788 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes20 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost in 24 matches295 won, 102 drawn, 61 lost in 458 matches
Level after 30 minutes32 won, 5 drawn, 8 lost in 45 matches477 won, 428 drawn, 477 lost in 1382 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreBarcelonaLeague sides
All matches61 scored, 26 conceded (101)799 scored, 799 conceded (2472)
When leading after 75 minutes42 scored, 12 conceded (69)285 scored, 278 conceded (837)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 42 times, equalised within 15 minutes 14, by full time 31(league sides: 1,301 times, within 15 minutes 213, by full time 607)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 26 Oct 2024

BarcelonaReal Madrid
75Matches with xG75
183.97xG for156.98
203Goals scored157
84.99xG against84.49
74Goals conceded75

Barcelona

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Barcelona: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
17 Oct 2026at Real Betis3.131.275–2
10 Oct 2026v Getafe1.930.143–0
19 Sep 2026at Sevilla3.470.403–1
16 Sep 2026v Racing Santander6.741.987–2
13 Sep 2026at Levante2.582.424–2
6 Sep 2026at Valencia4.080.665–0
31 Aug 2026v Rayo Vallecano3.041.215–2
27 Aug 2026v Athletic Club4.230.252–0
23 Aug 2026at Elche4.380.705–0
23 May 2026at Valencia1.521.481–3

Real Madrid

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Real Madrid: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
18 Oct 2026v Sevilla2.280.754–1
10 Oct 2026v Villarreal1.430.591–0
20 Sep 2026at Atletico Madrid0.302.351–2
15 Sep 2026at Elche3.610.783–2
12 Sep 2026v Rayo Vallecano2.621.214–1
4 Sep 2026at Real Betis3.460.930–1
30 Aug 2026v Malaga2.620.714–0
26 Aug 2026v Real Sociedad3.140.574–1
22 Aug 2026at Espanyol2.711.052–1
23 May 2026v Athletic Club1.900.814–2

This league season

La Liga matches since 15 Aug 2026.

BarcelonaReal Madrid
9 of 9Matches with xG9 of 9
27Points in those matches21
23.08xPts19.60
33.58xG for22.17
9.03xG against8.94

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Barcelona and Real Madrid

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • BarcelonaBarcelona
    Ruled out
    R. Bardghji (Knee Injury) · A. Christensen (Muscle Injury) · E. Garcia (Muscle Injury) · J. Kounde (Ankle Injury) · D. Olmo (Groin Injury)
  • Real MadridReal Madrid
    Ruled out
    R. Asencio (Broken Leg) · F. Mendy (Hip Injury) · Rodrygo (Knee Injury) · Vinicius Junior (Red Card)

Published 25 Oct 2026, 18:58 GMT · not changed since

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