Başakşehir v Gaziantep FK match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 18 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
The model makes Başakşehir 62% likely to win at home, with Gaziantep at 16%. Başakşehir are expected to create significantly more chances, with a total of 2.93 expected goals. Gaziantep will be without three injured players in their attempt to upset the favourites.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 62%Başakşehir win
- 22%Draw
- 16%Gaziantep FK win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
BaşakşehirLast 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats
Gaziantep FKLast 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Başakşehir won 28 of 36 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
- Gaziantep FK won 15 of 28 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
- Başakşehir won 7 of the last 10 meetings.
- Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Gaziantep FK's last 10 away league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
10 meetings: Başakşehir 7, draws 1, Gaziantep FK 2
Goals: Başakşehir 19, Gaziantep FK 8
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 16 May 2026 | Gaziantep FK v Başakşehir | 1–2 |
| 22 Dec 2025 | Başakşehir v Gaziantep FK | 5–1 |
| 20 Apr 2025 | Başakşehir v Gaziantep FK | 2–1 |
| 23 Nov 2024 | Gaziantep FK v Başakşehir | 3–0 |
| 24 Feb 2024 | Gaziantep FK v Başakşehir | 0–2 |
| 7 Oct 2023 | Başakşehir v Gaziantep FK | 2–0 |
| 30 May 2023 | Başakşehir v Gaziantep FK | 3–0 |
| 5 Jan 2023 | Gaziantep FK v Başakşehir | 1–1 |
| 12 Feb 2022 | Başakşehir v Gaziantep FK | 2–0 |
| 22 Sep 2021 | Gaziantep FK v Başakşehir | 1–0 |
Home and away
BaşakşehirBaşakşehir at home
Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost
- WonGençlerbirliği S.K.19 Sep 20264–0
- LostGalatasaray4 Sep 20262–3
- DrawnKasımpaşa30 Aug 20261–1
- WonKocaelispor16 Aug 20262–0
- DrawnInter TurkuUEFA Europa Conference League22 Jul 20261–1
Başakşehir: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 23 scored, 5 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 3 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 10
Gaziantep FKGaziantep FK away
Last 5: 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost
- LostKocaelispor19 Sep 20260–2
- WonGöztepe7 Sep 20264–2
- WonEyüpspor23 Aug 20261–0
- LostGöztepe9 May 20261–2
- LostEyüpspor25 Apr 20260–3
Gaziantep FK: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 12 scored, 19 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 7 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Başakşehir- Last match
- 7 days before11 Oct 2026 · v Konyaspor · Süper Lig
- Next match
- 14 days after1 Nov 2026 · v Samsunspor · Süper Lig
Gaziantep FK- Last match
- 7 days before11 Oct 2026 · v Çorum FK · Süper Lig
- Next match
- 6 days after24 Oct 2026 · v Erzurumspor FK · Süper Lig
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Başakşehir
| Score | Başakşehir | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 28 won, 4 drawn, 4 lost in 36 matches | 669 won, 198 drawn, 146 lost in 1013 matches |
| Conceded first | 2 won, 4 drawn, 21 lost in 27 matches | 146 won, 198 drawn, 669 lost in 1013 matches |
| Level at half-time | 10 won, 10 drawn, 9 lost in 29 matches | 273 won, 326 drawn, 273 lost in 872 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 9 won, 12 drawn, 5 lost in 26 matches | 199 won, 338 drawn, 199 lost in 736 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 5 won, 12 drawn, 6 lost in 23 matches | 158 won, 380 drawn, 158 lost in 696 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 4 won, 12 drawn, 6 lost in 22 matches | 118 won, 416 drawn, 118 lost in 652 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 16 won, 15 drawn, 22 lost in 53 matches | 548 won, 460 drawn, 548 lost in 1556 matches |
| 1 goal up after 30 minutes | 15 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches | 265 won, 99 drawn, 65 lost in 429 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 11 won, 11 drawn, 16 lost in 38 matches | 397 won, 356 drawn, 397 lost in 1150 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Başakşehir | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 28 scored, 23 conceded (70) | 745 scored, 745 conceded (2196) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 16 scored, 9 conceded (29) | 294 scored, 260 conceded (764) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 5 scored, 4 conceded (20) | 191 scored, 191 conceded (668) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 10 conceded (21) | 260 scored, 294 conceded (764) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 36 times, equalised within 15 minutes 12, by full time 19(league sides: 1,169 times, within 15 minutes 204, by full time 522)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Gaziantep FK
| Score | Gaziantep FK | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 15 won, 9 drawn, 4 lost in 28 matches | 669 won, 198 drawn, 146 lost in 1013 matches |
| Conceded first | 7 won, 5 drawn, 25 lost in 37 matches | 146 won, 198 drawn, 669 lost in 1013 matches |
| Level at half-time | 11 won, 10 drawn, 8 lost in 29 matches | 273 won, 326 drawn, 273 lost in 872 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 5 won, 8 drawn, 7 lost in 20 matches | 199 won, 338 drawn, 199 lost in 736 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 5 won, 14 drawn, 5 lost in 24 matches | 158 won, 380 drawn, 158 lost in 696 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 4 won, 15 drawn, 2 lost in 21 matches | 118 won, 416 drawn, 118 lost in 652 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 15 won, 15 drawn, 16 lost in 46 matches | 548 won, 460 drawn, 548 lost in 1556 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 13 won, 14 drawn, 12 lost in 39 matches | 397 won, 356 drawn, 397 lost in 1150 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Gaziantep FK | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 17 scored, 31 conceded (70) | 745 scored, 745 conceded (2196) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 5 scored, 10 conceded (21) | 294 scored, 260 conceded (764) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 5 scored, 7 conceded (24) | 191 scored, 191 conceded (668) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 14 conceded (25) | 260 scored, 294 conceded (764) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 44 times, equalised within 15 minutes 10, by full time 21(league sides: 1,169 times, within 15 minutes 204, by full time 522)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 19 Oct 2024
| Başakşehir | Gaziantep FK | |
|---|---|---|
| 70 | Matches with xG | 69 |
| 108.83 | xG for | 87.23 |
| 114 | Goals scored | 88 |
| 95.14 | xG against | 107.78 |
| 93 | Goals conceded | 107 |
Başakşehir
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2026 | at Konyaspor | 0.97 | 0.41 | 0–0 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 2.74 | 0.52 | 4–0 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | at Amed | 0.39 | 4.25 | 0–5 |
| 4 Sep 2026 | v Galatasaray | 1.99 | 2.12 | 2–3 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | v Kasımpaşa | 0.76 | 1.69 | 1–1 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | at Trabzonspor | 1.95 | 2.27 | 1–2 |
| 16 Aug 2026 | v Kocaelispor | 1.96 | 0.43 | 2–0 |
| 16 May 2026 | at Gaziantep FK | 2.21 | 0.63 | 2–1 |
| 9 May 2026 | v Samsunspor | 3.31 | 0.32 | 3–0 |
| 2 May 2026 | at Fenerbahçe | 0.89 | 2.05 | 1–3 |
Gaziantep FK
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2026 | v Çorum FK | 0.99 | 2.67 | 0–3 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Kocaelispor | 1.03 | 1.30 | 0–2 |
| 14 Sep 2026 | v Fenerbahçe | 0.49 | 1.34 | 0–0 |
| 7 Sep 2026 | at Göztepe | 1.88 | 3.26 | 4–2 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v Rizespor | 0.79 | 1.17 | 1–2 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | at Eyüpspor | 1.16 | 0.49 | 1–0 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | v Alanyaspor | 1.28 | 1.25 | 1–1 |
| 16 May 2026 | v Başakşehir | 0.63 | 2.21 | 1–2 |
| 9 May 2026 | at Göztepe | 0.77 | 2.08 | 1–2 |
| 1 May 2026 | v Beşiktaş | 1.68 | 1.46 | 0–2 |
Gaziantep FK: 1 without xG left out
This league season
Süper Lig matches since 14 Aug 2026.
| Başakşehir | Gaziantep FK | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 of 7 | Matches with xG | 7 of 7 |
| 8 | Points in those matches | 8 |
| 10.20 | xPts | 7.43 |
| 10.76 | xG for | 7.62 |
| 11.69 | xG against | 11.48 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Başakşehir and Gaziantep FK
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Doubtful
- E. Visca (Injury)
- Ruled out
- F. Bavuk (Hamstring Injury) · N. Sangare (Back Injury)
Published 18 Oct 2026, 15:57 BST · not changed since
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