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Süper Lig
Başakşehir
5–2Finished
Samsunspor
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 13:00 GMTMatchday 10 · Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium, Istanbul

Başakşehir v Samsunspor match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 1 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Başakşehir's expected goals of 1.91 compare to Samsunspor's 1.01, a gap of 0.9 in Başakşehir's favour. Başakşehir's recent form is stronger, while Samsunspor are winless in their last five. Başakşehir have dominated their last three head-to-head meetings, winning all three by a combined 9–0.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 59%Başakşehir win
  • 23%Draw
  • 18%Samsunspor win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

BaşakşehirBaşakşehir

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

  1. lost0–2at Beşiktaş
  2. won2–1v Gaziantep FK
  3. drew0–0at Konyaspor
  4. won4–0v Gençlerbirliği S.K.
  5. lost0–5at Amed
SamsunsporSamsunspor

Last 5: no wins, no draws, 5 defeats

  1. lost1–2v Amed
  2. lost1–4at Kasımpaşa
  3. lost0–3v Trabzonspor
  4. lost0–1at Erzurumspor FK
  5. lost1–5v Çorum FK

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Başakşehir won 29 of 37 matches in which they scored first, since 3 Nov 2024.
  • Samsunspor won 21 of 31 matches in which they scored first, since 4 Nov 2024.
  • Başakşehir won 4 of the last 6 meetings.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Başakşehir's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

6 meetings: Başakşehir 4, draws 1, Samsunspor 1

Goals: Başakşehir 10, Samsunspor 2

DateMatchScore
9 May 2026Başakşehir v Samsunspor3–0
14 Dec 2025Samsunspor v Başakşehir0–2
1 Feb 2025Başakşehir v Samsunspor4–0
18 Sep 2024Samsunspor v Başakşehir2–0
3 Mar 2024Başakşehir v Samsunspor1–0
22 Oct 2023Samsunspor v Başakşehir0–0

Home and away

Başakşehir

Başakşehir at home

Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost

  • WonGaziantep FK18 Oct 20262–1
  • WonGençlerbirliği S.K.19 Sep 20264–0
  • LostGalatasaray4 Sep 20262–3
  • DrawnKasımpaşa30 Aug 20261–1
  • WonKocaelispor16 Aug 20262–0

Başakşehir: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
23 scored, 6 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
4 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
6 of 10
Samsunspor

Samsunspor away

Last 5: 1 won, 0 drawn, 4 lost

  • LostKasımpaşa18 Oct 20261–4
  • LostErzurumspor FK20 Sep 20260–1
  • LostKocaelispor6 Sep 20260–1
  • WonRizespor22 Aug 20262–0
  • LostBaşakşehir9 May 20260–3

Samsunspor: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
11 scored, 19 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Başakşehir
Last match
6 days before26 Oct 2026 · v Beşiktaş · Süper Lig
Next match
6 days after7 Nov 2026 · v Göztepe · Süper Lig
Samsunspor
Last match
8 days before24 Oct 2026 · v Amed · Süper Lig
Next match
6 days after7 Nov 2026 · v Konyaspor · Süper Lig

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Başakşehir

Since 3 Nov 2024

ScoreBaşakşehirLeague sides
Scored first29 won, 4 drawn, 4 lost in 37 matches680 won, 198 drawn, 149 lost in 1027 matches
Conceded first2 won, 3 drawn, 21 lost in 26 matches149 won, 198 drawn, 680 lost in 1027 matches
Level at half-time10 won, 10 drawn, 9 lost in 29 matches275 won, 328 drawn, 275 lost in 878 matches
Level after 60 minutes9 won, 11 drawn, 5 lost in 25 matches200 won, 340 drawn, 200 lost in 740 matches
Level after 70 minutes6 won, 11 drawn, 6 lost in 23 matches161 won, 382 drawn, 161 lost in 704 matches
Level after 80 minutes5 won, 11 drawn, 5 lost in 21 matches121 won, 418 drawn, 121 lost in 660 matches
Level after 15 minutes16 won, 14 drawn, 22 lost in 52 matches558 won, 462 drawn, 558 lost in 1578 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes16 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost in 21 matches271 won, 99 drawn, 67 lost in 437 matches
Level after 30 minutes11 won, 11 drawn, 16 lost in 38 matches402 won, 358 drawn, 402 lost in 1162 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreBaşakşehirLeague sides
All matches29 scored, 24 conceded (70)754 scored, 754 conceded (2226)
When leading after 75 minutes16 scored, 9 conceded (29)296 scored, 262 conceded (774)
When level after 75 minutes6 scored, 5 conceded (20)196 scored, 196 conceded (678)
When trailing after 75 minutes7 scored, 10 conceded (21)262 scored, 296 conceded (774)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 35 times, equalised within 15 minutes 12, by full time 18(league sides: 1,183 times, within 15 minutes 205, by full time 527)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Samsunspor

Since 4 Nov 2024

ScoreSamsunsporLeague sides
Scored first21 won, 6 drawn, 4 lost in 31 matches680 won, 198 drawn, 149 lost in 1027 matches
Conceded first5 won, 5 drawn, 21 lost in 31 matches149 won, 198 drawn, 680 lost in 1027 matches
1 goal up at half-time15 won, 6 drawn, 2 lost in 23 matches318 won, 109 drawn, 57 lost in 484 matches
Level at half-time6 won, 12 drawn, 4 lost in 22 matches275 won, 328 drawn, 275 lost in 878 matches
Level after 60 minutes6 won, 14 drawn, 3 lost in 23 matches200 won, 340 drawn, 200 lost in 740 matches
Level after 70 minutes6 won, 14 drawn, 2 lost in 22 matches161 won, 382 drawn, 161 lost in 704 matches
Level after 80 minutes6 won, 15 drawn, 2 lost in 23 matches121 won, 418 drawn, 121 lost in 660 matches
Level after 15 minutes17 won, 16 drawn, 17 lost in 50 matches558 won, 462 drawn, 558 lost in 1578 matches
Level after 30 minutes17 won, 14 drawn, 7 lost in 38 matches402 won, 358 drawn, 402 lost in 1162 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreSamsunsporLeague sides
All matches24 scored, 26 conceded (71)754 scored, 754 conceded (2226)
When leading after 75 minutes8 scored, 15 conceded (24)296 scored, 262 conceded (774)
When level after 75 minutes5 scored, 2 conceded (21)196 scored, 196 conceded (678)
When trailing after 75 minutes11 scored, 9 conceded (26)262 scored, 296 conceded (774)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 35 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 15(league sides: 1,183 times, within 15 minutes 205, by full time 527)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

BaşakşehirSamsunspor
70Since 3 Nov 2024Matches with xG68Since 4 Nov 2024
109.14xG for87.82
115Goals scored88
96.59xG against85.60
94Goals conceded97

Başakşehir

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Başakşehir: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
26 Oct 2026at Beşiktaş0.381.880–2
18 Oct 2026v Gaziantep FK2.031.132–1
11 Oct 2026at Konyaspor0.970.410–0
19 Sep 2026v Gençlerbirliği S.K.2.740.524–0
13 Sep 2026at Amed0.394.250–5
4 Sep 2026v Galatasaray1.992.122–3
30 Aug 2026v Kasımpaşa0.761.691–1
23 Aug 2026at Trabzonspor1.952.271–2
16 Aug 2026v Kocaelispor1.960.432–0
16 May 2026at Gaziantep FK2.210.632–1

Samsunspor

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Samsunspor: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
24 Oct 2026v Amed0.911.541–2
18 Oct 2026at Kasımpaşa1.132.601–4
10 Oct 2026v Trabzonspor1.662.020–3
20 Sep 2026at Erzurumspor FK0.360.720–1
12 Sep 2026v Çorum FK1.231.731–5
6 Sep 2026at Kocaelispor1.741.590–1
30 Aug 2026v Fenerbahçe0.461.560–2
22 Aug 2026at Rizespor0.331.852–0
17 Aug 2026v Göztepe2.801.713–3
16 May 2026v Göztepe2.112.203–0

Samsunspor: 1 without xG left out

This league season

Süper Lig matches since 14 Aug 2026.

BaşakşehirSamsunspor
9 of 9Matches with xG9 of 9
11Points in those matches4
12.55xPts9.09
13.17xG for10.62
14.70xG against15.32

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Başakşehir and Samsunspor

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • BaşakşehirBaşakşehir
    Doubtful
    C. Operi (Inactive) · J. Opoku (Inactive)
  • SamsunsporSamsunspor
    Ruled out
    F. Kaya (Inactive) · E. Kilinc (Inactive) · A. Sousa (Red Card) · C. Yuksel (Injury)
    Doubtful
    I. Drapinski (Injury) · J. Mendes (Injury)

Published 1 Nov 2026, 11:58 GMT · not changed since

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