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Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen
2–1Finished
SC Freiburg
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 14:30 BSTMatchday 6 · BayArena, Bayer Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 18 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

The model makes Leverkusen 59% likely to win at home, with expected goals of 2.08 to Freiburg's 1.16. Leverkusen's form is stronger and they have home advantage, but five injury absences weaken their squad significantly.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 59%Bayer Leverkusen win
  • 22%Draw
  • 19%SC Freiburg win

PRO analysis

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PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen

Last 5: 4 wins, 1 draw, no defeats

SC FreiburgSC Freiburg

Last 5: 4 wins, 1 draw, no defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Bundesliga, since 18 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 148 of 197.
  • SC Freiburg won 31 of 43 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Bayer Leverkusen won 5 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Bayer Leverkusen unbeaten in their last 5 home games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Bayer Leverkusen 5, draws 3, SC Freiburg 2

Goals: Bayer Leverkusen 23, SC Freiburg 16

DateMatchScore
7 Mar 2026SC Freiburg v Bayer Leverkusen3–3
26 Oct 2025Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg2–0
4 May 2025SC Freiburg v Bayer Leverkusen2–2
21 Dec 2024Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg5–1
17 Mar 2024SC Freiburg v Bayer Leverkusen2–3
29 Oct 2023Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg2–1
26 Feb 2023SC Freiburg v Bayer Leverkusen1–1
3 Sep 2022Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg2–3
14 May 2022Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg2–1
19 Dec 2021SC Freiburg v Bayer Leverkusen2–1

Home and away

Bayer Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen at home

Last 5: 4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost

  • WonRB Leipzig20 Sep 20262–0
  • WonCeljeUEFA Europa League16 Sep 20262–0
  • WonUnion Berlin5 Sep 20264–0
  • DrawnHamburger SV16 May 20261–1
  • WonRB Leipzig2 May 20264–1

Bayer Leverkusen: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
25 scored, 9 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10
SC Freiburg

SC Freiburg away

Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost

  • DrawnEintracht Frankfurt19 Sep 20262–2
  • WonSC Paderborn 075 Sep 20261–0
  • WonFortuna DüsseldorfDFB Pokal23 Aug 20265–1
  • WonMotherwellUEFA Europa Conference League20 Aug 20263–1
  • LostHamburger SV10 May 20262–3

SC Freiburg: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
10 scored, 18 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
4 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Bayer Leverkusen
Last match
3 days before15 Oct 2026 · v Lech Poznan · UEFA Europa League
Next match
4 days after22 Oct 2026 · v OFI · UEFA Europa League
SC Freiburg
Last match
3 days before15 Oct 2026 · v FK Jablonec · UEFA Europa Conference League
Next match
4 days after22 Oct 2026 · v Monaco · UEFA Europa Conference League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

SC Freiburg

ScoreSC FreiburgLeague sides
Scored first31 won, 5 drawn, 7 lost in 43 matches603 won, 196 drawn, 125 lost in 924 matches
Conceded first7 won, 6 drawn, 19 lost in 32 matches125 won, 196 drawn, 603 lost in 924 matches
Level at half-time11 won, 12 drawn, 13 lost in 36 matches201 won, 288 drawn, 201 lost in 690 matches
Level after 60 minutes7 won, 12 drawn, 9 lost in 28 matches152 won, 286 drawn, 152 lost in 590 matches
Level after 70 minutes7 won, 12 drawn, 5 lost in 24 matches103 won, 294 drawn, 103 lost in 500 matches
2+ goals up after 80 minutes18 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost in 20 matches356 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost in 359 matches
Level after 80 minutes6 won, 15 drawn, 5 lost in 26 matches73 won, 338 drawn, 73 lost in 484 matches
Level after 15 minutes32 won, 16 drawn, 18 lost in 66 matches485 won, 358 drawn, 485 lost in 1328 matches
Level after 30 minutes20 won, 16 drawn, 17 lost in 53 matches318 won, 310 drawn, 318 lost in 946 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreSC FreiburgLeague sides
All matches25 scored, 30 conceded (82)705 scored, 705 conceded (1952)
When leading after 75 minutes8 scored, 13 conceded (31)296 scored, 265 conceded (731)
When level after 75 minutes8 scored, 5 conceded (27)144 scored, 144 conceded (490)
When trailing after 75 minutes9 scored, 12 conceded (24)265 scored, 296 conceded (731)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 41 times, equalised within 15 minutes 11, by full time 21(league sides: 1,118 times, within 15 minutes 192, by full time 509)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 18 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 19 Oct 2024

Bayer LeverkusenSC Freiburg
67Matches with xG67
122.60xG for93.43
138Goals scored105
82.06xG against90.12
86Goals conceded107

Bayer Leverkusen

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Bayer Leverkusen: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
10 Oct 2026at FSV Mainz 052.093.134–3
20 Sep 2026v RB Leipzig2.270.972–0
12 Sep 2026at FC Augsburg2.641.112–2
5 Sep 2026v Union Berlin3.110.394–0
29 Aug 2026at SV Elversberg1.881.272–3
16 May 2026v Hamburger SV3.271.791–1
9 May 2026at VfB Stuttgart0.543.041–3
2 May 2026v RB Leipzig4.421.174–1
25 Apr 2026at 1. FC Köln1.333.042–1
18 Apr 2026v FC Augsburg3.801.331–2

SC Freiburg

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
SC Freiburg: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
11 Oct 2026v FC Schalke 041.150.322–1
19 Sep 2026at Eintracht Frankfurt3.092.182–2
12 Sep 2026v Borussia Mönchengladbach2.600.195–0
5 Sep 2026at SC Paderborn 071.240.771–0
30 Aug 2026v Werder Bremen2.370.544–1
16 May 2026v RB Leipzig1.411.244–1
10 May 2026at Hamburger SV0.411.982–3
3 May 2026v VfL Wolfsburg0.940.821–1
26 Apr 2026at Borussia Dortmund0.763.370–4
19 Apr 2026v 1. FC Heidenheim1.621.582–1

This league season

Bundesliga matches since 28 Aug 2026.

Bayer LeverkusenSC Freiburg
5 of 5Matches with xG5 of 5
10Points in those matches13
9.89xPts10.89
11.99xG for10.45
6.87xG against4.00

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Bayer Leverkusen and SC Freiburg

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen
    Ruled out
    E. Ben Seghir (Muscle Injury) · G. Doue (Calf Injury) · K. Eichhorn (Illness) · C. Kofane (Muscle Injury) · M. Terrier (Muscle Injury)
    Doubtful
    M. Culbreath (Foot Injury)
  • SC FreiburgSC Freiburg
    Ruled out
    Y. Suzuki (Red Card)
    Doubtful
    B. Yilmaz (Lacking Match Fitness)

Published 18 Oct 2026, 13:27 BST · not changed since

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