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Bundesliga
Bayern München
6–1Finished
RB Leipzig
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 17:30 BSTMatchday 6 · Allianz Arena, Munich

Bayern München v RB Leipzig match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 17 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Bayern München are heavily favoured to beat RB Leipzig with a 73% win probability. The model expects Bayern to score around 2.85 goals against Leipzig's 1.14. Bayern have dominated Leipzig in recent meetings, winning three of the last five encounters including victories of 6-0 and 5-1.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 73%Bayern München win
  • 16%Draw
  • 11%RB Leipzig win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Bayern MünchenBayern München

Last 5: 3 wins, 2 draws, no defeats

RB LeipzigRB Leipzig

Last 5: 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Bundesliga, since 18 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 148 of 197.
  • Bayern München won 6 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Bayern München unbeaten in their last 5 home games.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 10 of Bayern München's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Bayern München 6, draws 3, RB Leipzig 1

Goals: Bayern München 30, RB Leipzig 14

DateMatchScore
11 Feb 2026Bayern München v RB LeipzigDFB Pokal2–0
17 Jan 2026RB Leipzig v Bayern München1–5
22 Aug 2025Bayern München v RB Leipzig6–0
3 May 2025RB Leipzig v Bayern München3–3
20 Dec 2024Bayern München v RB Leipzig5–1
24 Feb 2024Bayern München v RB Leipzig2–1
30 Sep 2023RB Leipzig v Bayern München2–2
20 May 2023Bayern München v RB Leipzig1–3
20 Jan 2023RB Leipzig v Bayern München1–1
5 Feb 2022Bayern München v RB Leipzig3–2

Home and away

Bayern München

Bayern München at home

Last 5: 5 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost

  • WonUnion Berlin18 Sep 20267–0
  • WonBodo/GlimtUEFA Champions League10 Sep 20265–0
  • WonVfB Stuttgart28 Aug 20265–1
  • WonVfB StuttgartDFB Pokal23 May 20263–0
  • Won1. FC Köln16 May 20265–1

Bayern München: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
41 scored, 13 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
10 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10
RB Leipzig

RB Leipzig away

Last 5: 1 won, 0 drawn, 4 lost

  • LostBayer Leverkusen20 Sep 20260–2
  • LostComoUEFA Champions League10 Sep 20261–4
  • LostWerder Bremen5 Sep 20261–3
  • WonEintracht TrierDFB Pokal22 Aug 20266–0
  • LostSC Freiburg16 May 20261–4

RB Leipzig: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
13 scored, 19 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
0 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Bayern München
Last match
4 days before13 Oct 2026 · v Viking · UEFA Champions League
Next match
4 days after21 Oct 2026 · v Arsenal · UEFA Champions League
RB Leipzig
Last match
4 days before13 Oct 2026 · v PSV Eindhoven · UEFA Champions League
Next match
4 days after21 Oct 2026 · v Real Madrid · UEFA Champions League

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 19 Oct 2024

Bayern MünchenRB Leipzig
67Matches with xG67
185.16xG for117.51
217Goals scored125
67.47xG against105.49
65Goals conceded98

Bayern München

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Bayern München: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
10 Oct 2026at FC Augsburg4.962.372–2
18 Sep 2026v Union Berlin3.710.347–0
13 Sep 2026at SV Elversberg2.830.942–1
5 Sep 2026at FC Schalke 041.940.210–0
28 Aug 2026v VfB Stuttgart4.060.795–1
16 May 2026v 1. FC Köln3.050.985–1
9 May 2026at VfL Wolfsburg1.853.041–0
2 May 2026v 1. FC Heidenheim2.312.593–3
25 Apr 2026at FSV Mainz 052.212.694–3
19 Apr 2026v VfB Stuttgart4.611.354–2

RB Leipzig

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
RB Leipzig: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
10 Oct 2026v Eintracht Frankfurt4.031.466–0
20 Sep 2026at Bayer Leverkusen0.972.270–2
13 Sep 2026v Hamburger SV2.431.105–0
5 Sep 2026at Werder Bremen1.500.951–3
29 Aug 2026v Borussia Mönchengladbach3.961.093–0
16 May 2026at SC Freiburg1.241.411–4
9 May 2026v FC St. Pauli1.370.792–1
2 May 2026at Bayer Leverkusen1.174.421–4
24 Apr 2026v Union Berlin4.490.193–1
18 Apr 2026at Eintracht Frankfurt2.091.453–1

This league season

Bundesliga matches since 28 Aug 2026.

Bayern MünchenRB Leipzig
5 of 5Matches with xG5 of 5
11Points in those matches9
13.09xPts9.78
17.50xG for12.89
4.65xG against6.87

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Bayern München and RB Leipzig

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • Bayern MünchenBayern München
    Ruled out
    T. Buchmann (Knee Injury) · J. Musiala (Muscle Injury)
    Doubtful
    M. Neuer (Foot Injury)
  • RB LeipzigRB Leipzig
    Ruled out
    C. Baumgartner (Thigh Injury) · M. Guiu (Hamstring Injury) · A. Ouedraogo (Shoulder Injury)

Published 17 Oct 2026, 16:27 BST · not changed since

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