Birmingham v Preston match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Tue 13 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Birmingham are favoured at 53% to win, with the model expecting them to significantly outshoot Preston (1.62 expected goals to 0.91). Preston have won just once in five and are missing two injured players, though they did beat Birmingham in their last away meeting.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 53%Birmingham win
- 27%Draw
- 20%Preston win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
BirminghamLast 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat
PrestonLast 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Birmingham won 18 of 25 matches in which they scored first, since 8 Aug 2025.
- Preston won 20 of 42 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
- Birmingham won 4 of the last 8 meetings.
- Birmingham without a win in their last 5 home games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
8 meetings: Birmingham 4, draws 2, Preston 2
Goals: Birmingham 8, Preston 6
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 22 Apr 2026 | Birmingham v Preston | 2–1 |
| 21 Oct 2025 | Preston v Birmingham | 0–1 |
| 1 Apr 2024 | Birmingham v Preston | 1–0 |
| 19 Sep 2023 | Preston v Birmingham | 2–1 |
| 21 Jan 2023 | Birmingham v Preston | 1–2 |
| 3 Sep 2022 | Preston v Birmingham | 0–1 |
| 15 Jan 2022 | Preston v Birmingham | 1–1 |
| 25 Sep 2021 | Birmingham v Preston | 0–0 |
Home and away
BirminghamBirmingham at home
Last 5: 0 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost
- DrawnMiddlesbrough19 Sep 20262–2
- DrawnWolves6 Sep 20262–2
- DrawnSouthampton1 Sep 20261–1
- LostBrentfordLeague Cup25 Aug 20261–6
- DrawnBristol City22 Aug 20262–2
Birmingham: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 15 scored, 11 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 7 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
PrestonPreston away
Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost
- DrawnQPR19 Sep 20262–2
- LostWatford8 Sep 20261–2
- LostCharlton29 Aug 20260–1
- LostBolton15 Aug 20261–2
- WonSheffield Utd25 Apr 20263–2
Preston: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 12 scored, 19 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 7 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 8 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Birmingham- Last match
- 3 days before10 Oct 2026 · v West Brom · Championship
- Next match
- 4 days after17 Oct 2026 · v QPR · Championship
Preston- Last match
- 3 days before10 Oct 2026 · v Millwall · Championship
- Next match
- 4 days after17 Oct 2026 · v Wrexham · Championship
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Birmingham
Since 8 Aug 2025
| Score | Birmingham | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 18 won, 6 drawn, 1 lost in 25 matches | 1098 won, 344 drawn, 212 lost in 1654 matches |
| Conceded first | 2 won, 10 drawn, 16 lost in 28 matches | 212 won, 344 drawn, 1098 lost in 1654 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 12 won, 13 drawn, 11 lost in 36 matches | 906 won, 730 drawn, 906 lost in 2542 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 10 won, 10 drawn, 8 lost in 28 matches | 643 won, 624 drawn, 643 lost in 1910 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Birmingham | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 12 scored, 9 conceded (55) | 1022 scored, 1022 conceded (3556) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 6 scored, 4 conceded (20) | 367 scored, 338 conceded (1236) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 32 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 16(league sides: 1,862 times, within 15 minutes 318, by full time 825)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Preston
Since 19 Oct 2024
| Score | Preston | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 20 won, 18 drawn, 4 lost in 42 matches | 1098 won, 344 drawn, 212 lost in 1654 matches |
| Conceded first | 4 won, 8 drawn, 31 lost in 43 matches | 212 won, 344 drawn, 1098 lost in 1654 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 13 won, 10 drawn, 4 lost in 27 matches | 500 won, 163 drawn, 94 lost in 757 matches |
| Level at half-time | 7 won, 15 drawn, 9 lost in 31 matches | 452 won, 574 drawn, 452 lost in 1478 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 2 won, 5 drawn, 14 lost in 21 matches | 94 won, 163 drawn, 500 lost in 757 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 13 won, 9 drawn, 2 lost in 24 matches | 531 won, 168 drawn, 64 lost in 763 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 7 won, 18 drawn, 8 lost in 33 matches | 337 won, 578 drawn, 337 lost in 1252 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 0 won, 3 drawn, 17 lost in 20 matches | 64 won, 168 drawn, 531 lost in 763 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 13 won, 11 drawn, 1 lost in 25 matches | 558 won, 148 drawn, 43 lost in 749 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 5 won, 19 drawn, 7 lost in 31 matches | 272 won, 626 drawn, 272 lost in 1170 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 16 won, 8 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches | 635 won, 116 drawn, 17 lost in 768 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 1 won, 23 drawn, 5 lost in 29 matches | 170 won, 698 drawn, 170 lost in 1038 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 15 won, 24 drawn, 24 lost in 63 matches | 906 won, 730 drawn, 906 lost in 2542 matches |
| 1 goal up after 30 minutes | 11 won, 11 drawn, 2 lost in 24 matches | 432 won, 145 drawn, 105 lost in 682 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 9 won, 15 drawn, 18 lost in 42 matches | 643 won, 624 drawn, 643 lost in 1910 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Preston | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 22 scored, 35 conceded (92) | 1022 scored, 1022 conceded (3556) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 6 scored, 16 conceded (31) | 338 scored, 367 conceded (1236) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 11 conceded (32) | 317 scored, 317 conceded (1084) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 9 scored, 8 conceded (29) | 367 scored, 338 conceded (1236) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 45 times, equalised within 15 minutes 10, by full time 18(league sides: 1,862 times, within 15 minutes 318, by full time 825)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Birmingham | Preston | |
|---|---|---|
| 55Since 8 Aug 2025 | Matches with xG | 92Since 19 Oct 2024 |
| 78.64 | xG for | 110.76 |
| 70 | Goals scored | 104 |
| 60.36 | xG against | 127.12 |
| 67 | Goals conceded | 125 |
Birmingham
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | at West Brom | 2.55 | 1.05 | 1–0 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Middlesbrough | 1.23 | 2.14 | 2–2 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Derby | 3.17 | 1.11 | 2–1 |
| 9 Sep 2026 | at Norwich | 1.63 | 1.01 | 1–2 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | v Wolves | 1.39 | 2.47 | 2–2 |
| 1 Sep 2026 | v Southampton | 1.55 | 1.02 | 1–1 |
| 28 Aug 2026 | at Wrexham | 1.62 | 1.42 | 2–1 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Bristol City | 1.98 | 1.43 | 2–2 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | at Sheffield Utd | 0.77 | 0.29 | 0–0 |
| 2 May 2026 | at Portsmouth | 1.67 | 0.74 | 1–1 |
Preston
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | v Millwall | 0.65 | 1.09 | 0–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | at QPR | 1.50 | 2.54 | 2–2 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Lincoln | 0.58 | 0.66 | 0–1 |
| 8 Sep 2026 | at Watford | 2.44 | 1.26 | 1–2 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Blackburn | 2.19 | 1.09 | 2–1 |
| 1 Sep 2026 | v Bristol City | 1.91 | 1.78 | 1–3 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at Charlton | 1.32 | 0.74 | 0–1 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Wolves | 0.66 | 1.54 | 1–3 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | at Bolton | 1.12 | 1.10 | 1–2 |
| 2 May 2026 | v Southampton | 1.91 | 2.41 | 1–3 |
This league season
Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.
| Birmingham | Preston | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 of 9 | Matches with xG | 9 of 9 |
| 14 | Points in those matches | 4 |
| 14.90 | xPts | 12.55 |
| 15.89 | xG for | 12.37 |
| 11.94 | xG against | 11.80 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Birmingham and Preston
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- M. Leonard (Achilles Tendon Injury) · Paik Seung-Ho (Health problems)
- Ruled out
- A. McCann (Hamstring Injury) · B. Potts (Ankle Injury)
- Doubtful
- T. Carroll (Ankle Injury) · H. Clarke (Inactive) · J. Kenny (Inactive) · C. Lang (Inactive) · S. Mills (Inactive) · C. Wiley (Inactive)
Published 13 Oct 2026, 18:57 BST · not changed since
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