Birmingham v QPR match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 17 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Birmingham are slight favourites at 48% to beat QPR in a match the model expects to produce 2.63 goals. QPR arrive with a run of four draws in five games and significant injury problems, while Birmingham have won two of their last five.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 48%Birmingham win
- 27%Draw
- 25%QPR win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
BirminghamLast 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat
QPRLast 5: 1 win, 4 draws, no defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Birmingham won 19 of 26 matches in which they scored first, since 8 Aug 2025.
- QPR won 25 of 34 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
- QPR won 4 of the last 8 meetings.
- QPR unbeaten in their last 5 away games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
8 meetings: Birmingham 3, draws 1, QPR 4
Goals: Birmingham 7, QPR 8
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 11 Mar 2026 | Birmingham v QPR | 1–0 |
| 9 Dec 2025 | QPR v Birmingham | 2–1 |
| 29 Mar 2024 | QPR v Birmingham | 2–1 |
| 22 Sep 2023 | Birmingham v QPR | 0–0 |
| 18 Mar 2023 | QPR v Birmingham | 0–1 |
| 28 Oct 2022 | Birmingham v QPR | 2–0 |
| 2 Jan 2022 | Birmingham v QPR | 1–2 |
| 28 Sep 2021 | QPR v Birmingham | 2–0 |
Home and away
BirminghamBirmingham at home
Last 5: 1 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost
- WonPreston13 Oct 20264–0
- DrawnMiddlesbrough19 Sep 20262–2
- DrawnWolves6 Sep 20262–2
- DrawnSouthampton1 Sep 20261–1
- LostBrentfordLeague Cup25 Aug 20261–6
Birmingham: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 18 scored, 11 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 7 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
QPRQPR away
Last 5: 2 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost
- DrawnWest Ham9 Oct 20261–1
- DrawnWest Brom12 Sep 20261–1
- DrawnCharlton9 Sep 20260–0
- WonBlackburn29 Aug 20262–1
- WonPortsmouth15 Aug 20263–1
QPR: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 11 scored, 12 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 4 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Birmingham- Last match
- 4 days before13 Oct 2026 · v Preston · Championship
- Next match
- 7 days after24 Oct 2026 · v Cardiff · Championship
QPR- Last match
- 3 days before14 Oct 2026 · v Derby · Championship
- Next match
- 7 days after24 Oct 2026 · v Swansea · Championship
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Birmingham
Since 8 Aug 2025
| Score | Birmingham | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 19 won, 6 drawn, 1 lost in 26 matches | 1108 won, 345 drawn, 214 lost in 1667 matches |
| Conceded first | 2 won, 10 drawn, 16 lost in 28 matches | 214 won, 345 drawn, 1108 lost in 1667 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 13 won, 13 drawn, 11 lost in 37 matches | 917 won, 732 drawn, 917 lost in 2566 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 11 won, 10 drawn, 8 lost in 29 matches | 651 won, 626 drawn, 651 lost in 1928 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Birmingham | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 13 scored, 9 conceded (56) | 1036 scored, 1036 conceded (3582) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 2 scored, 3 conceded (20) | 344 scored, 373 conceded (1247) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 6 scored, 4 conceded (20) | 373 scored, 344 conceded (1247) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 32 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 16(league sides: 1,878 times, within 15 minutes 322, by full time 833)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
QPR
Since 19 Oct 2024
| Score | QPR | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 25 won, 6 drawn, 3 lost in 34 matches | 1108 won, 345 drawn, 214 lost in 1667 matches |
| Conceded first | 8 won, 7 drawn, 32 lost in 47 matches | 214 won, 345 drawn, 1108 lost in 1667 matches |
| Level at half-time | 11 won, 16 drawn, 9 lost in 36 matches | 457 won, 574 drawn, 457 lost in 1488 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 3 won, 4 drawn, 13 lost in 20 matches | 94 won, 164 drawn, 504 lost in 762 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 11 won, 17 drawn, 3 lost in 31 matches | 342 won, 578 drawn, 342 lost in 1262 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 3 won, 5 drawn, 13 lost in 21 matches | 64 won, 169 drawn, 534 lost in 767 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 9 won, 22 drawn, 3 lost in 34 matches | 277 won, 626 drawn, 277 lost in 1180 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 5 won, 22 drawn, 2 lost in 29 matches | 173 won, 698 drawn, 173 lost in 1044 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 23 won, 23 drawn, 19 lost in 65 matches | 917 won, 732 drawn, 917 lost in 2566 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 14 won, 19 drawn, 12 lost in 45 matches | 651 won, 626 drawn, 651 lost in 1928 matches |
| 1 goal down after 30 minutes | 4 won, 3 drawn, 16 lost in 23 matches | 106 won, 145 drawn, 434 lost in 685 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | QPR | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 27 scored, 21 conceded (93) | 1036 scored, 1036 conceded (3582) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 8 scored, 9 conceded (28) | 344 scored, 373 conceded (1247) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 9 scored, 3 conceded (30) | 319 scored, 319 conceded (1088) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 10 scored, 9 conceded (35) | 373 scored, 344 conceded (1247) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 53 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 21(league sides: 1,878 times, within 15 minutes 322, by full time 833)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Birmingham | QPR | |
|---|---|---|
| 56Since 8 Aug 2025 | Matches with xG | 93Since 19 Oct 2024 |
| 80.88 | xG for | 106.83 |
| 74 | Goals scored | 120 |
| 60.85 | xG against | 112.17 |
| 67 | Goals conceded | 129 |
Birmingham
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 2026 | v Preston | 2.24 | 0.49 | 4–0 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | at West Brom | 2.55 | 1.05 | 1–0 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Middlesbrough | 1.23 | 2.14 | 2–2 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Derby | 3.17 | 1.11 | 2–1 |
| 9 Sep 2026 | at Norwich | 1.63 | 1.01 | 1–2 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | v Wolves | 1.39 | 2.47 | 2–2 |
| 1 Sep 2026 | v Southampton | 1.55 | 1.02 | 1–1 |
| 28 Aug 2026 | at Wrexham | 1.62 | 1.42 | 2–1 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Bristol City | 1.98 | 1.43 | 2–2 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | at Sheffield Utd | 0.77 | 0.29 | 0–0 |
QPR
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2026 | v Derby | 2.05 | 1.02 | 4–1 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | at West Ham | 1.27 | 1.44 | 1–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Preston | 2.54 | 1.50 | 2–2 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at West Brom | 0.62 | 1.22 | 1–1 |
| 9 Sep 2026 | at Charlton | 1.10 | 0.48 | 0–0 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Middlesbrough | 1.03 | 2.53 | 0–1 |
| 2 Sep 2026 | v Cardiff | 2.09 | 0.60 | 2–1 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at Blackburn | 1.34 | 0.92 | 2–1 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Bolton | 1.82 | 0.19 | 0–0 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | at Portsmouth | 2.07 | 2.17 | 3–1 |
This league season
Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.
| Birmingham | QPR | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 of 10 | Matches with xG | 10 of 10 |
| 17 | Points in those matches | 17 |
| 17.38 | xPts | 16.48 |
| 18.13 | xG for | 15.93 |
| 12.43 | xG against | 12.07 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Birmingham and QPR
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- M. Leonard (Achilles Tendon Injury) · Paik Seung-Ho (Health problems)
- Ruled out
- I. Chair (Muscle Injury) · D. Cirkin (Red Card) · K. Dembele (Knee Injury) · T. Lamptey (Inactive) · A. S. Mbengue (Knee Injury) · J. Obikwu (Health problems) · K. Saito (Inactive)
- Doubtful
- R. Burrell (Inactive)
Published 17 Oct 2026, 13:57 BST · not changed since
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