LEDGER
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Championship
Blackburn
2–1Finished
Cardiff
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 15:00 BST

Blackburn v Cardiff match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 10 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 52%Blackburn win
  • 26%Draw
  • 22%Cardiff win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

BlackburnBlackburn

Last 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats

CardiffCardiff

Last 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Blackburn won 26 of 40 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Championship, since 4 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 317 of 404.
  • Blackburn won 6 of the last 9 meetings.
  • Cardiff without a win in their last 5 away games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

9 meetings: Blackburn 6, draws 1, Cardiff 2

Goals: Blackburn 17, Cardiff 7

DateMatchScore
15 Mar 2025Blackburn v Cardiff1–2
9 Nov 2024Cardiff v Blackburn1–3
20 Feb 2024Cardiff v Blackburn0–0
21 Oct 2023Blackburn v Cardiff1–0
27 Sep 2023Blackburn v CardiffLeague Cup5–2
1 Jan 2023Blackburn v Cardiff1–0
4 Oct 2022Cardiff v Blackburn1–0
15 Jan 2022Cardiff v Blackburn0–1
25 Sep 2021Blackburn v Cardiff5–1

Home and away

Blackburn

Blackburn at home

Last 5: 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost

  • WonMillwall12 Sep 20263–1
  • LostSheffield Utd8 Sep 20261–2
  • LostQPR29 Aug 20261–2
  • LostSheffield UtdLeague Cup25 Aug 20261–2
  • WonMiddlesbrough22 Aug 20262–1

Blackburn: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
10 scored, 11 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10
Cardiff

Cardiff away

Last 5: 0 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost

  • LostBolton12 Sep 20260–1
  • LostPortsmouth5 Sep 20260–2
  • LostQPR2 Sep 20261–2
  • DrawnDerby22 Aug 20262–2
  • LostMansfield TownLeague One2 May 20264–5

Cardiff: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
17 scored, 16 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Blackburn
Last match
21 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Portsmouth · Championship
Next match
3 days after13 Oct 2026 · v Bristol City · Championship
Cardiff
Last match
21 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Charlton · Championship
Next match
3 days after13 Oct 2026 · v Watford · Championship

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Blackburn

ScoreBlackburnLeague sides
Scored first26 won, 6 drawn, 8 lost in 40 matches1090 won, 342 drawn, 211 lost in 1643 matches
Conceded first4 won, 10 drawn, 31 lost in 45 matches211 won, 342 drawn, 1090 lost in 1643 matches
Level at half-time12 won, 16 drawn, 17 lost in 45 matches450 won, 572 drawn, 450 lost in 1472 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes14 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches525 won, 167 drawn, 64 lost in 756 matches
Level after 60 minutes7 won, 13 drawn, 15 lost in 35 matches336 won, 576 drawn, 336 lost in 1248 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes2 won, 5 drawn, 14 lost in 21 matches64 won, 167 drawn, 525 lost in 756 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes16 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost in 21 matches553 won, 147 drawn, 43 lost in 743 matches
Level after 70 minutes3 won, 13 drawn, 13 lost in 29 matches271 won, 624 drawn, 271 lost in 1166 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes2 won, 5 drawn, 16 lost in 23 matches43 won, 147 drawn, 553 lost in 743 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes16 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost in 21 matches629 won, 115 drawn, 17 lost in 761 matches
Level after 80 minutes3 won, 15 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches170 won, 696 drawn, 170 lost in 1036 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes0 won, 3 drawn, 25 lost in 28 matches17 won, 115 drawn, 629 lost in 761 matches
Level after 15 minutes24 won, 20 drawn, 29 lost in 73 matches898 won, 730 drawn, 898 lost in 2526 matches
Level after 30 minutes18 won, 17 drawn, 23 lost in 58 matches638 won, 622 drawn, 638 lost in 1898 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreBlackburnLeague sides
All matches20 scored, 27 conceded (91)1017 scored, 1017 conceded (3534)
When leading after 75 minutes5 scored, 6 conceded (30)336 scored, 365 conceded (1227)
When level after 75 minutes6 scored, 12 conceded (24)316 scored, 316 conceded (1080)
When trailing after 75 minutes9 scored, 9 conceded (37)365 scored, 336 conceded (1227)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 46 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 16(league sides: 1,851 times, within 15 minutes 318, by full time 822)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 19 Oct 2024

BlackburnCardiff
91Matches with xG45
104.15xG for54.77
92Goals scored54
112.28xG against61.54
105Goals conceded67

Blackburn

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Blackburn: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
19 Sep 2026at Portsmouth0.591.602–2
12 Sep 2026v Millwall1.231.673–1
8 Sep 2026v Sheffield Utd1.600.471–2
5 Sep 2026at Preston1.092.191–2
1 Sep 2026at Lincoln0.241.460–0
29 Aug 2026v QPR0.921.341–2
22 Aug 2026v Middlesbrough0.911.432–1
14 Aug 2026at Wolves0.822.042–2
2 May 2026v Leicester1.402.520–1
22 Apr 2026at Sheffield Utd1.581.513–1

Cardiff

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Cardiff: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
19 Sep 2026v Charlton2.601.263–1
12 Sep 2026at Bolton1.790.480–1
8 Sep 2026v Stoke City2.920.751–1
5 Sep 2026at Portsmouth1.372.070–2
2 Sep 2026at QPR0.602.091–2
29 Aug 2026v Sheffield Utd2.241.282–2
22 Aug 2026at Derby1.981.622–2
17 Aug 2026v Wrexham0.901.431–1
3 May 2025at Norwich1.772.972–4
26 Apr 2025v West Brom1.421.470–0

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

BlackburnCardiff
8 of 8Matches with xG8 of 8
9Points in those matches7
7.76xPts13.01
7.40xG for14.40
12.20xG against10.98

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Blackburn and Cardiff

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • BlackburnBlackburnA. Forshaw (Hip Injury) · M. Jorgensen (Hamstring Injury) · A. Kargbo (Muscle Injury) · M. Litherland (Muscle Injury) · L. Miller (Achilles Tendon Injury) · Y. Ohashi (Hamstring Injury) · Y. Ribeiro (Hamstring Injury) · S. Wharton (Achilles Tendon Injury)
  • CardiffCardiffNo injuries or suspensions reported.

Published 10 Oct 2026, 14:03 BST · not changed since

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