Championship2–0Finished

Wrexham

Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 15:00 BSTMatchday 12 · Ewood Park, Blackburn

Blackburn v Wrexham match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 24 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Blackburn have a 39% chance of winning at home, but Wrexham's 33% chance reflects their strong recent record against this opponent. Both teams face significant injury problems heading into the match.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

39%Blackburn win
28%Draw
33%Wrexham win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Blackburn

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

Wrexham

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

Blackburn won 27 of 42 matches in which they scored first, since 26 Oct 2024.
Wrexham won 17 of 29 matches in which they scored first, since 9 Aug 2025.
Both teams scored in 7 of Blackburn's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

3 meetings: Blackburn 1, draws 1, Wrexham 1

Goals: Blackburn 5, Wrexham 4

Date	Match	Score
1 Jan 2026	Blackburn v Wrexham	0–2
29 Nov 2025	Wrexham v Blackburn	1–1
29 Jan 2024	Blackburn v WrexhamFA Cup	4–1

Home and away

Blackburn

Blackburn at home

Last 5: 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost

WonCardiff10 Oct 20262–1
WonMillwall12 Sep 20263–1
LostSheffield Utd8 Sep 20261–2
LostQPR29 Aug 20261–2
LostSheffield UtdLeague Cup25 Aug 20261–2

Blackburn: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals: 11 scored, 10 conceded in 10
Both teams scored: 7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals: 5 of 10
Clean sheets: 2 of 10

Wrexham

Wrexham away

Last 5: 1 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost

DrawnDerby10 Oct 20261–1
LostWest Ham11 Sep 20260–6
DrawnSwansea5 Sep 20260–0
WonMillwall2 Sep 20263–0
DrawnCardiff17 Aug 20261–1

Wrexham: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals: 11 scored, 16 conceded in 10
Both teams scored: 5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals: 5 of 10
Clean sheets: 3 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Blackburn

Last match: 7 days before17 Oct 2026 · v West Brom · Championship
Next match: 7 days after31 Oct 2026 · v Swansea · Championship

Wrexham

Last match: 7 days before17 Oct 2026 · v Preston · Championship
Next match: 6 days after30 Oct 2026 · v Sheffield Utd · Championship

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Blackburn

Since 26 Oct 2024

Score	Blackburn	League sides
Scored first	27 won, 6 drawn, 9 lost in 42 matches	1116 won, 348 drawn, 215 lost in 1679 matches
Conceded first	4 won, 10 drawn, 31 lost in 45 matches	215 won, 348 drawn, 1116 lost in 1679 matches
1 goal up at half-time	13 won, 3 drawn, 4 lost in 20 matches	508 won, 164 drawn, 95 lost in 767 matches
Level at half-time	12 won, 15 drawn, 17 lost in 44 matches	460 won, 578 drawn, 460 lost in 1498 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes	15 won, 4 drawn, 3 lost in 22 matches	539 won, 170 drawn, 65 lost in 774 matches
Level after 60 minutes	7 won, 12 drawn, 15 lost in 34 matches	342 won, 582 drawn, 342 lost in 1266 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes	2 won, 5 drawn, 14 lost in 21 matches	65 won, 170 drawn, 539 lost in 774 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes	17 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost in 23 matches	565 won, 151 drawn, 45 lost in 761 matches
Level after 70 minutes	3 won, 12 drawn, 13 lost in 28 matches	277 won, 630 drawn, 277 lost in 1184 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes	2 won, 5 drawn, 16 lost in 23 matches	45 won, 151 drawn, 565 lost in 761 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes	17 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost in 22 matches	645 won, 119 drawn, 17 lost in 781 matches
Level after 80 minutes	3 won, 14 drawn, 3 lost in 20 matches	174 won, 702 drawn, 174 lost in 1050 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes	0 won, 3 drawn, 25 lost in 28 matches	17 won, 119 drawn, 645 lost in 781 matches
Level after 15 minutes	26 won, 19 drawn, 29 lost in 74 matches	923 won, 738 drawn, 923 lost in 2584 matches
Level after 30 minutes	19 won, 16 drawn, 23 lost in 58 matches	656 won, 630 drawn, 656 lost in 1942 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
Score	Blackburn	League sides
All matches	20 scored, 28 conceded (92)	1042 scored, 1042 conceded (3608)
When leading after 75 minutes	5 scored, 6 conceded (31)	347 scored, 375 conceded (1257)
When level after 75 minutes	6 scored, 13 conceded (24)	320 scored, 320 conceded (1094)
When trailing after 75 minutes	9 scored, 9 conceded (37)	375 scored, 347 conceded (1257)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 46 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 16(league sides: 1,891 times, within 15 minutes 323, by full time 838)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Wrexham

Since 9 Aug 2025

Score	Wrexham	League sides
Scored first	17 won, 9 drawn, 3 lost in 29 matches	1116 won, 348 drawn, 215 lost in 1679 matches
Conceded first	5 won, 7 drawn, 13 lost in 25 matches	215 won, 348 drawn, 1116 lost in 1679 matches
Level after 15 minutes	17 won, 10 drawn, 11 lost in 38 matches	923 won, 738 drawn, 923 lost in 2584 matches
Level after 30 minutes	11 won, 10 drawn, 8 lost in 29 matches	656 won, 630 drawn, 656 lost in 1942 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
Score	Wrexham	League sides
All matches	19 scored, 24 conceded (57)	1042 scored, 1042 conceded (3608)
When leading after 75 minutes	5 scored, 12 conceded (24)	347 scored, 375 conceded (1257)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 31 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 19(league sides: 1,891 times, within 15 minutes 323, by full time 838)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

Blackburn		Wrexham
92Since 26 Oct 2024	Matches with xG	57Since 9 Aug 2025
106.13	xG for	67.46
96	Goals scored	84
117.42	xG against	74.60
109	Goals conceded	81

Blackburn

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left

Show the numbers

Blackburn: Last matches with xG, newest first
Date	Opponent	xG for	xG against	Goals (tick; no tick = 0)
17 Oct 2026	at West Brom	0.84	3.72	2–3
13 Oct 2026	at Bristol City	0.15	1.95	1–0
10 Oct 2026	v Cardiff	2.42	1.05	2–1
19 Sep 2026	at Portsmouth	0.59	1.60	2–2
12 Sep 2026	v Millwall	1.23	1.67	3–1
8 Sep 2026	v Sheffield Utd	1.60	0.47	1–2
5 Sep 2026	at Preston	1.09	2.19	1–2
1 Sep 2026	at Lincoln	0.24	1.46	0–0
29 Aug 2026	v QPR	0.92	1.34	1–2
22 Aug 2026	v Middlesbrough	0.91	1.43	2–1

Wrexham

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left

Show the numbers

Wrexham: Last matches with xG, newest first
Date	Opponent	xG for	xG against	Goals (tick; no tick = 0)
17 Oct 2026	v Preston	1.97	0.79	4–1
13 Oct 2026	v West Brom	0.38	0.94	1–2
10 Oct 2026	at Derby	1.46	0.60	1–1
19 Sep 2026	v Southampton	0.54	2.08	2–1
11 Sep 2026	at West Ham	0.44	2.96	0–6
8 Sep 2026	v Burnley	1.28	1.50	1–1
5 Sep 2026	at Swansea	0.67	0.74	0–0
2 Sep 2026	at Millwall	0.88	0.23	3–0
28 Aug 2026	v Birmingham	1.42	1.62	1–2
22 Aug 2026	v Watford	1.92	0.65	1–1

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

Blackburn		Wrexham
11 of 11	Matches with xG	11 of 11
15	Points in those matches	14
10.41	xPts	15.23
10.81	xG for	12.39
18.92	xG against	13.01

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Blackburn and Wrexham

Corners won and concededPRO
Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
First-half goals, scored and concededPRO

PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

Blackburn
Ruled out
A. Forshaw (Hip Injury) · M. Litherland (Muscle Injury) · L. Miller (Achilles Tendon Injury) · Y. Ohashi (Hamstring Injury) · Y. Ribeiro (Hamstring Injury)
Doubtful
R. Morishita (Injury) · S. Wharton (Achilles Tendon Injury)
Wrexham
Ruled out
N. Broadhead (Thigh Injury) · L. Cacace (Calf Injury) · M. Cleworth (Muscle Injury) · S. Revan (Hamstring Injury) · J. Windass (Ankle Injury)
Doubtful
B. Sheaf (Injury) · G. Thomason (Thigh Injury)

Published 24 Oct 2026, 13:58 BST · not changed since

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