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Serie A
Bologna
1–3Finished
Inter
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 17:00 BSTMatchday 7 · Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna

Bologna v Inter match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 17 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Inter are favoured to win with a 53% chance, while Bologna have a 22% chance of victory. The model expects 2.74 goals in total. Both teams are hampered by injuries that could affect their team sheets.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 22%Bologna win
  • 25%Draw
  • 53%Inter win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

BolognaBologna

Last 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats

InterInter

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Bologna won 31 of 46 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Serie A, since 19 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 215 of 270.
  • Bologna without a win in their last 5 home games.
  • Under 2.5 goals in 7 of Bologna's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Bologna 3, draws 4, Inter 3

Goals: Bologna 13, Inter 18

DateMatchScore
23 May 2026Bologna v Inter3–3
4 Jan 2026Inter v Bologna3–1
20 Apr 2025Bologna v Inter1–0
15 Jan 2025Inter v Bologna2–2
9 Mar 2024Bologna v Inter0–1
20 Dec 2023Inter v BolognaCoppa Italia0–0 AET 1–2
7 Oct 2023Inter v Bologna2–2
26 Feb 2023Bologna v Inter1–0
9 Nov 2022Inter v Bologna6–1
27 Apr 2022Bologna v Inter2–1

Home and away

Bologna

Bologna at home

Last 5: 0 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost

  • DrawnTorino19 Sep 20261–1
  • DrawnSassuolo6 Sep 20262–2
  • LostLazio24 Aug 20260–1
  • DrawnInter23 May 20263–3
  • DrawnCagliari3 May 20260–0

Bologna: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
10 scored, 13 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
4 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
3 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
Inter

Inter away

Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost

  • DrawnAS Roma19 Sep 20262–2
  • LostReal MadridUEFA Champions League8 Sep 20261–2
  • WonCagliari30 Aug 20261–0
  • DrawnBologna23 May 20263–3
  • WonLazioCoppa Italia13 May 20262–0

Inter: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
23 scored, 12 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Bologna
Last match
6 days before11 Oct 2026 · v Lecce · Serie A
Next match
7 days after24 Oct 2026 · v Cagliari · Serie A
Inter
Last match
4 days before13 Oct 2026 · v Club Brugge KV · UEFA Champions League
Next match
4 days after21 Oct 2026 · v Shakhtar Donetsk · UEFA Champions League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Bologna

ScoreBolognaLeague sides
Scored first31 won, 11 drawn, 4 lost in 46 matches748 won, 236 drawn, 123 lost in 1107 matches
Conceded first8 won, 9 drawn, 26 lost in 43 matches123 won, 236 drawn, 748 lost in 1107 matches
1 goal up at half-time14 won, 8 drawn, 1 lost in 23 matches330 won, 121 drawn, 56 lost in 507 matches
Level at half-time17 won, 13 drawn, 13 lost in 43 matches317 won, 394 drawn, 317 lost in 1028 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes18 won, 5 drawn, 1 lost in 24 matches368 won, 111 drawn, 34 lost in 513 matches
Level after 60 minutes11 won, 11 drawn, 9 lost in 31 matches236 won, 406 drawn, 236 lost in 878 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes14 won, 8 drawn, 2 lost in 24 matches387 won, 94 drawn, 22 lost in 503 matches
Level after 70 minutes11 won, 14 drawn, 5 lost in 30 matches179 won, 448 drawn, 179 lost in 806 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes18 won, 7 drawn, 0 lost in 25 matches431 won, 84 drawn, 11 lost in 526 matches
Level after 80 minutes7 won, 18 drawn, 6 lost in 31 matches109 won, 486 drawn, 109 lost in 704 matches
Level after 15 minutes30 won, 21 drawn, 25 lost in 76 matches609 won, 534 drawn, 609 lost in 1752 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes13 won, 6 drawn, 1 lost in 20 matches289 won, 109 drawn, 57 lost in 455 matches
Level after 30 minutes21 won, 14 drawn, 20 lost in 55 matches444 won, 424 drawn, 444 lost in 1312 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreBolognaLeague sides
All matches23 scored, 27 conceded (95)695 scored, 695 conceded (2404)
When leading after 75 minutes10 scored, 15 conceded (42)243 scored, 223 conceded (813)
When level after 75 minutes8 scored, 6 conceded (28)229 scored, 229 conceded (778)
When trailing after 75 minutes5 scored, 6 conceded (25)223 scored, 243 conceded (813)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 47 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 24(league sides: 1,233 times, within 15 minutes 182, by full time 549)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 19 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

BolognaInter
75Since 19 Oct 2024Matches with xG74Since 20 Oct 2024
93.68xG for143.77
104Goals scored170
80.48xG against69.47
91Goals conceded66

Bologna

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Bologna: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
11 Oct 2026at Lecce1.981.492–1
19 Sep 2026v Torino0.921.141–1
13 Sep 2026at Napoli0.291.190–1
6 Sep 2026v Sassuolo1.881.622–2
31 Aug 2026at Atalanta1.050.150–1
24 Aug 2026v Lazio1.780.630–1
23 May 2026v Inter1.401.783–3
17 May 2026at Atalanta0.690.761–0
11 May 2026at Napoli1.260.803–2
3 May 2026v Cagliari0.531.070–0

Inter

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Inter: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
10 Oct 2026v Parma2.420.463–0
19 Sep 2026at AS Roma2.861.662–2
14 Sep 2026v Udinese3.050.925–3
5 Sep 2026v Napoli3.862.433–2
30 Aug 2026at Cagliari3.670.481–0
22 Aug 2026v Monza1.051.234–1
23 May 2026at Bologna1.781.403–3
17 May 2026v Hellas Verona2.561.191–1
9 May 2026at Lazio1.230.633–0
3 May 2026v Parma2.090.272–0

Inter: 1 without xG left out

This league season

Serie A matches since 22 Aug 2026.

BolognaInter
6 of 6Matches with xG6 of 6
5Points in those matches16
9.32xPts13.24
7.90xG for16.91
6.22xG against7.18

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Bologna and Inter

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • BolognaBologna
    Ruled out
    E. Holm (Thigh Injury) · R. Orsolini (Thigh Injury)
  • InterInter
    Ruled out
    C. Jones (Thigh Injury) · L. Martinez (Thigh Injury) · B. Pavard (Thigh Injury) · J. Stones (Injury)

Published 17 Oct 2026, 15:57 BST · not changed since

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