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Championship
Bolton
2–3Finished
Bristol City
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 15:00 GMTMatchday 13 · Toughsheet Community Stadium, Horwich

Bolton v Bristol City match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 31 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Bolton versus Bristol City shows a closely matched pair in the model's estimate, with Bolton given 38% to win, the draw at 28%, and Bristol City at 34%. Expected goals total 2.56 with a gap of only 0.06 in Bolton's favour. Bolton has won two of their last five matches, while Bristol City has won one of five.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 38%Bolton win
  • 28%Draw
  • 34%Bristol City win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

BoltonBolton

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

  1. lost1–5v Middlesbrough
  2. drew0–0at Southampton
  3. won3–1at Wolves
  4. lost1–2v Stoke City
  5. won4–3at Norwich
Bristol CityBristol City

Last 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats

  1. drew0–0at Stoke City
  2. lost0–1v Sheffield Utd
  3. lost0–1v Blackburn
  4. drew1–1at Charlton
  5. won1–0v Watford

Head-to-head

Head-to-head data was not available for this match.

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Championship, since 4 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 326 of 417.
  • Bristol City won 28 of 39 matches in which they scored first, since 2 Nov 2024.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Bolton's last 10 home league games.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Bristol City's last 10 away league games.

Home and away

Bolton

Bolton at home

Last 5: 1 won, 0 drawn, 4 lost

  • LostMiddlesbrough23 Oct 20261–5
  • LostStoke City10 Oct 20261–2
  • WonCardiff12 Sep 20261–0
  • LostWest Ham8 Sep 20262–3
  • LostLincoln29 Aug 20260–1

Bolton: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
17 scored, 19 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10
Bristol City

Bristol City away

Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost

  • DrawnStoke City24 Oct 20260–0
  • DrawnCharlton10 Oct 20261–1
  • LostSouthampton12 Sep 20261–4
  • WonBurnley5 Sep 20262–1
  • WonPreston1 Sep 20263–1

Bristol City: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
14 scored, 14 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Bolton
Last match
8 days before23 Oct 2026 · v Middlesbrough · Championship
Next match
3 days after3 Nov 2026 · v Charlton · Championship
Bristol City
Last match
7 days before24 Oct 2026 · v Stoke City · Championship
Next match
4 days after4 Nov 2026 · v Wolves · Championship

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 2 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Bristol City

ScoreBristol CityLeague sides
Scored first28 won, 8 drawn, 3 lost in 39 matches1122 won, 350 drawn, 218 lost in 1690 matches
Conceded first7 won, 11 drawn, 32 lost in 50 matches218 won, 350 drawn, 1122 lost in 1690 matches
1 goal up at half-time15 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches512 won, 165 drawn, 95 lost in 772 matches
Level at half-time10 won, 16 drawn, 9 lost in 35 matches463 won, 582 drawn, 463 lost in 1508 matches
1 goal down at half-time2 won, 4 drawn, 17 lost in 23 matches95 won, 165 drawn, 512 lost in 772 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes17 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost in 22 matches544 won, 171 drawn, 65 lost in 780 matches
Level after 60 minutes5 won, 16 drawn, 6 lost in 27 matches343 won, 586 drawn, 343 lost in 1272 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes2 won, 3 drawn, 18 lost in 23 matches65 won, 171 drawn, 544 lost in 780 matches
Level after 70 minutes5 won, 14 drawn, 4 lost in 23 matches278 won, 634 drawn, 278 lost in 1190 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes2 won, 5 drawn, 19 lost in 26 matches45 won, 152 drawn, 570 lost in 767 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes17 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost in 22 matches648 won, 120 drawn, 17 lost in 785 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes1 won, 5 drawn, 16 lost in 22 matches17 won, 120 drawn, 648 lost in 785 matches
Level after 15 minutes21 won, 20 drawn, 26 lost in 67 matches928 won, 744 drawn, 928 lost in 2600 matches
Level after 30 minutes15 won, 19 drawn, 17 lost in 51 matches661 won, 636 drawn, 661 lost in 1958 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreBristol CityLeague sides
All matches25 scored, 26 conceded (94)1050 scored, 1050 conceded (3632)
When leading after 75 minutes8 scored, 12 conceded (34)350 scored, 377 conceded (1266)
When level after 75 minutes8 scored, 5 conceded (24)323 scored, 323 conceded (1100)
When trailing after 75 minutes9 scored, 9 conceded (36)377 scored, 350 conceded (1266)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 53 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 22(league sides: 1,903 times, within 15 minutes 325, by full time 842)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 2 Nov 2024

BoltonBristol City
—Matches with xG94
—xG for114.23
—Goals scored116
—xG against123.82
—Goals conceded119

Bristol City

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Bristol City: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
24 Oct 2026at Stoke City0.790.710–0
17 Oct 2026v Sheffield Utd0.581.230–1
13 Oct 2026v Blackburn1.950.150–1
10 Oct 2026at Charlton1.471.781–1
18 Sep 2026v Watford1.560.521–0
15 Sep 2026v Lincoln1.530.530–1
12 Sep 2026at Southampton2.241.711–4
5 Sep 2026at Burnley1.060.262–1
1 Sep 2026at Preston1.781.913–1
29 Aug 2026v Portsmouth0.611.372–1

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

BoltonBristol City
12 of 12Matches with xG12 of 12
14Points in those matches15
13.06xPts17.31
16.19xG for15.52
23.10xG against15.55

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Bolton and Bristol City

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • BoltonBolton
    Ruled out
    E. Erhahon (Thigh Injury) · R. Hardie (Hamstring Injury) · J. McAtee (Knee Injury) · J. Nelson (Inactive)
    Doubtful
    C. Forino-Joseph (Groin Injury)
  • Bristol CityBristol City
    Ruled out
    N. Eile (Illness)
    Doubtful
    E. Adebayo (Inactive) · R. Dickie (Knee Injury) · L. Tolaj (Health problems)

Published 31 Oct 2026, 13:58 GMT · not changed since

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