Championship1–5Finished

Middlesbrough

Fri 23 Oct 2026 · 20:00 BSTMatchday 12 · Toughsheet Community Stadium, Horwich

Bolton v Middlesbrough match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Fri 23 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

The model gives Middlesbrough a 44% chance of winning against Bolton's 30%, with a draw at 27%. Expected goals stand at 2.73, with Middlesbrough projected to outscore Bolton by 0.33.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

29%Bolton win
27%Draw
44%Middlesbrough win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Bolton

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

Middlesbrough

Last 5: 2 wins, 3 draws, no defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

Championship, since 4 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 322 of 413.
Middlesbrough won 36 of 52 matches in which they scored first, since 23 Oct 2024.
Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Bolton's last 10 home league games.
Both teams scored in 7 of Bolton's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

1 meeting: Bolton 0, draws 0, Middlesbrough 1

Goals: Bolton 1, Middlesbrough 3

Date	Match	Score
29 Aug 2023	Bolton v MiddlesbroughLeague Cup	1–3

Home and away

Bolton

Bolton at home

Last 5: 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost

LostStoke City10 Oct 20261–2
WonCardiff12 Sep 20261–0
LostWest Ham8 Sep 20262–3
LostLincoln29 Aug 20260–1
WonPreston15 Aug 20262–1

Bolton: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals: 21 scored, 15 conceded in 10
Both teams scored: 7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals: 7 of 10
Clean sheets: 2 of 10

Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough away

Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost

WonStoke City13 Oct 20263–2
DrawnBirmingham19 Sep 20262–2
LostCrystal PalaceLeague Cup8 Sep 20260–3
WonQPR5 Sep 20261–0
DrawnBurnley2 Sep 20261–1

Middlesbrough: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals: 15 scored, 15 conceded in 10
Both teams scored: 8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals: 6 of 10
Clean sheets: 1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Bolton

Last match: 6 days before17 Oct 2026 · v Southampton · Championship
Next match: 8 days after31 Oct 2026 · v Bristol City · Championship

Middlesbrough

Last match: 6 days before17 Oct 2026 · v Cardiff · Championship
Next match: 8 days after31 Oct 2026 · v Charlton · Championship

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 23 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Middlesbrough

Score	Middlesbrough	League sides
Scored first	36 won, 10 drawn, 6 lost in 52 matches	1115 won, 348 drawn, 215 lost in 1678 matches
Conceded first	6 won, 10 drawn, 20 lost in 36 matches	215 won, 348 drawn, 1115 lost in 1678 matches
Level at half-time	12 won, 16 drawn, 8 lost in 36 matches	460 won, 578 drawn, 460 lost in 1498 matches
1 goal down at half-time	4 won, 6 drawn, 12 lost in 22 matches	95 won, 164 drawn, 508 lost in 767 matches
Level after 60 minutes	7 won, 19 drawn, 13 lost in 39 matches	342 won, 582 drawn, 342 lost in 1266 matches
Level after 70 minutes	8 won, 19 drawn, 11 lost in 38 matches	277 won, 630 drawn, 277 lost in 1184 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes	21 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches	645 won, 119 drawn, 17 lost in 781 matches
Level after 80 minutes	6 won, 24 drawn, 8 lost in 38 matches	174 won, 702 drawn, 174 lost in 1050 matches
Level after 15 minutes	28 won, 20 drawn, 18 lost in 66 matches	923 won, 738 drawn, 923 lost in 2584 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes	17 won, 3 drawn, 5 lost in 25 matches	436 won, 147 drawn, 107 lost in 690 matches
Level after 30 minutes	18 won, 18 drawn, 11 lost in 47 matches	656 won, 630 drawn, 656 lost in 1942 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
Score	Middlesbrough	League sides
All matches	30 scored, 29 conceded (96)	1041 scored, 1041 conceded (3606)
When leading after 75 minutes	15 scored, 11 conceded (37)	346 scored, 375 conceded (1256)
When level after 75 minutes	9 scored, 12 conceded (38)	320 scored, 320 conceded (1094)
When trailing after 75 minutes	6 scored, 6 conceded (21)	375 scored, 346 conceded (1256)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 41 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 25(league sides: 1,890 times, within 15 minutes 323, by full time 838)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 23 Oct 2024

Bolton		Middlesbrough
—	Matches with xG	95
—	xG for	143.51
—	Goals scored	148
—	xG against	102.77
—	Goals conceded	111

Middlesbrough

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left

Show the numbers

Middlesbrough: Last matches with xG, newest first
Date	Opponent	xG for	xG against	Goals (tick; no tick = 0)
17 Oct 2026	v Cardiff	2.78	0.91	2–2
13 Oct 2026	at Stoke City	2.57	0.65	3–2
10 Oct 2026	v Wolves	0.90	0.68	1–0
19 Sep 2026	at Birmingham	2.14	1.23	2–2
15 Sep 2026	v Millwall	1.52	1.69	2–2
12 Sep 2026	v Norwich	2.38	1.76	4–3
5 Sep 2026	at QPR	2.53	1.03	1–0
2 Sep 2026	at Burnley	1.22	0.64	1–1
29 Aug 2026	v West Brom	2.55	1.32	3–1
22 Aug 2026	at Blackburn	1.43	0.91	1–2

Middlesbrough: 1 without xG left out

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

Bolton		Middlesbrough
11 of 11	Matches with xG	11 of 11
14	Points in those matches	22
12.89	xPts	21.77
15.17	xG for	22.25
18.70	xG against	11.39

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Bolton and Middlesbrough

Corners won and concededPRO
Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
First-half goals, scored and concededPRO

PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

Bolton
Ruled out
J. Nelson (Inactive)
Doubtful
C. Forino-Joseph (Groin Injury)
Middlesbrough
Ruled out
A. Jones (Calf Injury) · R. Pukstas (Injury) · D. Strelec (Injury)

Published 23 Oct 2026, 19:02 BST · not changed since

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