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Championship
Bolton
1–2Finished
Stoke City
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 15:00 BST

Bolton v Stoke City match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 10 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 50%Bolton win
  • 28%Draw
  • 22%Stoke City win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

BoltonBolton

Last 5: 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats

Stoke CityStoke City

Last 5: 4 wins, 1 draw, no defeats

Head-to-head

Head-to-head data was not available for this match.

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Championship, since 4 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 317 of 404.
  • Stoke City won 24 of 40 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Bolton's last 10 home league games.
  • Both teams scored in 7 of Bolton's last 10 home league games.

Home and away

Bolton

Bolton at home

Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost

  • WonCardiff12 Sep 20261–0
  • LostWest Ham8 Sep 20262–3
  • LostLincoln29 Aug 20260–1
  • WonPreston15 Aug 20262–1
  • WonStockport CountyLeague One24 May 20264–1

Bolton: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
22 scored, 15 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10
Stoke City

Stoke City away

Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost

  • WonWatford12 Sep 20262–1
  • DrawnCardiff8 Sep 20261–1
  • LostWolves29 Aug 20261–4
  • LostSouthampton22 Aug 20261–3
  • LostBristol City2 May 20260–2

Stoke City: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
7 scored, 22 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
0 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Bolton
Last match
20 days before20 Sep 2026 · v Norwich · Championship
Next match
3 days after13 Oct 2026 · v Wolves · Championship
Stoke City
Last match
21 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Sheffield Utd · Championship
Next match
3 days after13 Oct 2026 · v Middlesbrough · Championship

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Stoke City

ScoreStoke CityLeague sides
Scored first24 won, 9 drawn, 7 lost in 40 matches1090 won, 342 drawn, 211 lost in 1643 matches
Conceded first4 won, 6 drawn, 31 lost in 41 matches211 won, 342 drawn, 1090 lost in 1643 matches
Level at half-time11 won, 14 drawn, 18 lost in 43 matches450 won, 572 drawn, 450 lost in 1472 matches
Level after 60 minutes6 won, 18 drawn, 12 lost in 36 matches336 won, 576 drawn, 336 lost in 1248 matches
Level after 70 minutes7 won, 21 drawn, 10 lost in 38 matches271 won, 624 drawn, 271 lost in 1166 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes1 won, 2 drawn, 17 lost in 20 matches43 won, 147 drawn, 553 lost in 743 matches
Level after 80 minutes5 won, 21 drawn, 8 lost in 34 matches170 won, 696 drawn, 170 lost in 1036 matches
Level after 15 minutes20 won, 21 drawn, 22 lost in 63 matches898 won, 730 drawn, 898 lost in 2526 matches
Level after 30 minutes15 won, 16 drawn, 20 lost in 51 matches638 won, 622 drawn, 638 lost in 1898 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreStoke CityLeague sides
All matches18 scored, 30 conceded (91)1017 scored, 1017 conceded (3534)
When leading after 75 minutes6 scored, 8 conceded (25)336 scored, 365 conceded (1227)
When level after 75 minutes7 scored, 11 conceded (34)316 scored, 316 conceded (1080)
When trailing after 75 minutes5 scored, 11 conceded (32)365 scored, 336 conceded (1227)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 46 times, equalised within 15 minutes 4, by full time 17(league sides: 1,851 times, within 15 minutes 318, by full time 822)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 19 Oct 2024

BoltonStoke City
—Matches with xG91
—xG for99.34
—Goals scored99
—xG against133.34
—Goals conceded118

Stoke City

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Stoke City: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
19 Sep 2026v Sheffield Utd0.650.362–1
12 Sep 2026at Watford1.500.392–1
8 Sep 2026at Cardiff0.752.921–1
5 Sep 2026v Charlton2.140.614–0
1 Sep 2026v Norwich0.581.441–0
29 Aug 2026at Wolves0.832.661–4
22 Aug 2026at Southampton0.932.321–3
15 Aug 2026v Swansea0.650.621–2
2 May 2026at Bristol City1.031.980–2
25 Apr 2026v Portsmouth1.511.611–3

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

BoltonStoke City
8 of 8Matches with xG8 of 8
10Points in those matches13
8.26xPts9.51
9.18xG for8.03
13.82xG against11.32

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Bolton and Stoke City

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • BoltonBoltonL. Brunt (Hamstring Injury) · C. Forino-Joseph (Groin Injury) · L. Stephenson (Muscle Injury)
  • Stoke CityStoke CityA. Cresswell (Knee Injury) · S. Ingelsson (Muscle Injury)

Published 10 Oct 2026, 13:58 BST · not changed since

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