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Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund
2–2Finished
Werder Bremen
Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 19:30 BST

Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Fri 9 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 66%Borussia Dortmund win
  • 19%Draw
  • 15%Werder Bremen win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund

Last 5: 5 wins, no draws, no defeats

Werder BremenWerder Bremen

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Borussia Dortmund won 44 of 61 matches in which they scored first, since 18 Oct 2024.
  • Werder Bremen won 17 of 25 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
  • Borussia Dortmund won 5 of the last 8 meetings.
  • Borussia Dortmund unbeaten in their last 5 home games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

8 meetings: Borussia Dortmund 5, draws 2, Werder Bremen 1

Goals: Borussia Dortmund 14, Werder Bremen 6

DateMatchScore
16 May 2026Werder Bremen v Borussia Dortmund0–2
13 Jan 2026Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen3–0
25 Jan 2025Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen2–2
31 Aug 2024Werder Bremen v Borussia Dortmund0–0
9 Mar 2024Werder Bremen v Borussia Dortmund1–2
20 Oct 2023Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen1–0
11 Feb 2023Werder Bremen v Borussia Dortmund0–2
20 Aug 2022Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen2–3

Home and away

Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund at home

Last 5: 5 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost

  • WonSC Paderborn 0712 Sep 20263–0
  • WonVillarrealUEFA Champions League8 Sep 20263–2
  • WonHamburger SV29 Aug 20262–0
  • WonEintracht Frankfurt8 May 20263–2
  • WonSC Freiburg26 Apr 20264–0

Borussia Dortmund: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
26 scored, 10 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
4 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
5 of 10
Werder Bremen

Werder Bremen away

Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost

  • Drawn1. FC Köln12 Sep 20261–1
  • LostSC Freiburg30 Aug 20261–4
  • WonLüneburger SK HansaDFB Pokal22 Aug 20263–0
  • Lost1899 Hoffenheim9 May 20260–1
  • DrawnVfB Stuttgart26 Apr 20261–1

Werder Bremen: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
10 scored, 15 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
4 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Borussia Dortmund
Last match
20 days before19 Sep 2026 · v VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga
Next match
5 days after14 Oct 2026 · v Bodo/Glimt · UEFA Champions League
Werder Bremen
Last match
20 days before19 Sep 2026 · v FC Augsburg · Bundesliga
Next match
8 days after17 Oct 2026 · v SC Paderborn 07 · Bundesliga

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Borussia Dortmund

Since 18 Oct 2024

ScoreBorussia DortmundLeague sides
Scored first44 won, 13 drawn, 4 lost in 61 matches591 won, 193 drawn, 125 lost in 909 matches
Conceded first7 won, 2 drawn, 18 lost in 27 matches125 won, 193 drawn, 591 lost in 909 matches
1 goal up at half-time25 won, 5 drawn, 2 lost in 32 matches265 won, 91 drawn, 55 lost in 411 matches
Level at half-time11 won, 9 drawn, 5 lost in 25 matches194 won, 284 drawn, 194 lost in 672 matches
2+ goals up after 60 minutes23 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches293 won, 14 drawn, 6 lost in 313 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes17 won, 8 drawn, 2 lost in 27 matches242 won, 90 drawn, 28 lost in 360 matches
2+ goals up after 70 minutes23 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches325 won, 7 drawn, 3 lost in 335 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes20 won, 10 drawn, 1 lost in 31 matches268 won, 93 drawn, 21 lost in 382 matches
2+ goals up after 80 minutes30 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost in 31 matches353 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost in 356 matches
Level after 80 minutes8 won, 10 drawn, 4 lost in 22 matches70 won, 332 drawn, 70 lost in 472 matches
Level after 15 minutes36 won, 14 drawn, 17 lost in 67 matches479 won, 352 drawn, 479 lost in 1310 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes19 won, 4 drawn, 3 lost in 26 matches243 won, 81 drawn, 60 lost in 384 matches
Level after 30 minutes24 won, 11 drawn, 9 lost in 44 matches314 won, 306 drawn, 314 lost in 934 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreBorussia DortmundLeague sides
All matches49 scored, 34 conceded (89)687 scored, 687 conceded (1920)
When leading after 75 minutes28 scored, 16 conceded (48)293 scored, 258 conceded (722)
When level after 75 minutes11 scored, 9 conceded (20)136 scored, 136 conceded (476)
When trailing after 75 minutes10 scored, 9 conceded (21)258 scored, 293 conceded (722)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 32 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 16(league sides: 1,103 times, within 15 minutes 191, by full time 501)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Werder Bremen

Since 20 Oct 2024

ScoreWerder BremenLeague sides
Scored first17 won, 6 drawn, 2 lost in 25 matches591 won, 193 drawn, 125 lost in 909 matches
Conceded first5 won, 7 drawn, 26 lost in 38 matches125 won, 193 drawn, 591 lost in 909 matches
Level at half-time8 won, 8 drawn, 5 lost in 21 matches194 won, 284 drawn, 194 lost in 672 matches
1 goal down at half-time2 won, 5 drawn, 13 lost in 20 matches55 won, 91 drawn, 265 lost in 411 matches
Level after 15 minutes15 won, 10 drawn, 17 lost in 42 matches479 won, 352 drawn, 479 lost in 1310 matches
Level after 30 minutes7 won, 9 drawn, 12 lost in 28 matches314 won, 306 drawn, 314 lost in 934 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes5 won, 4 drawn, 12 lost in 21 matches60 won, 81 drawn, 243 lost in 384 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreWerder BremenLeague sides
All matches31 scored, 25 conceded (66)687 scored, 687 conceded (1920)
When leading after 75 minutes10 scored, 6 conceded (20)293 scored, 258 conceded (722)
When trailing after 75 minutes15 scored, 16 conceded (34)258 scored, 293 conceded (722)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 44 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 17(league sides: 1,103 times, within 15 minutes 191, by full time 501)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 18 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

Borussia DortmundWerder Bremen
66Since 18 Oct 2024Matches with xG66Since 20 Oct 2024
122.79xG for90.17
138Goals scored91
75.74xG against102.03
76Goals conceded113

Borussia Dortmund

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Borussia Dortmund: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
19 Sep 2026at VfB Stuttgart1.340.871–0
12 Sep 2026v SC Paderborn 071.760.493–0
5 Sep 2026at 1899 Hoffenheim2.021.173–2
29 Aug 2026v Hamburger SV1.530.912–0
16 May 2026at Werder Bremen2.740.492–0
8 May 2026v Eintracht Frankfurt1.941.123–2
3 May 2026at Borussia Mönchengladbach0.492.200–1
26 Apr 2026v SC Freiburg3.370.764–0
18 Apr 2026at 1899 Hoffenheim0.702.251–2
11 Apr 2026v Bayer Leverkusen1.300.630–1

Werder Bremen

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Werder Bremen: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
19 Sep 2026v FC Augsburg2.781.123–2
12 Sep 2026at 1. FC Köln1.121.651–1
5 Sep 2026v RB Leipzig0.951.503–1
30 Aug 2026at SC Freiburg0.542.371–4
16 May 2026v Borussia Dortmund0.492.740–2
9 May 2026at 1899 Hoffenheim1.071.520–1
2 May 2026v FC Augsburg1.352.571–3
26 Apr 2026at VfB Stuttgart0.931.821–1
18 Apr 2026v Hamburger SV1.740.573–1
12 Apr 2026at 1. FC Köln0.993.331–3

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • Borussia DortmundBorussia DortmundE. Can (Knee Injury) · G. Konstantelias (Knee Injury) · C. Chukwuemeka (Muscle Injury) · K. Karetsas (Illness) · J. Lerma (Muscle Injury) · F. Mane (Muscle Injury) · J. Ryerson (Ribs Injury)
  • Werder BremenWerder BremenF. Agu (Calf Injury)

Published 9 Oct 2026, 18:27 BST · not changed since

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