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Premier League
Bournemouth
2–0Finished
Sunderland
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 14:00 BSTMatchday 7 · Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth

Bournemouth v Sunderland match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 18 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Bournemouth are given a 56% chance to win this home fixture, with Sunderland at 19% to take it. The model expects roughly 2.66 goals in total, with Bournemouth favoured to create more chances, though both sides have defensive concerns due to injuries.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 56%Bournemouth win
  • 25%Draw
  • 19%Sunderland win

PRO analysis

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PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

BournemouthBournemouth

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

SunderlandSunderland

Last 5: 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Bournemouth won 23 of 40 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Sunderland won 22 of 32 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
  • Both teams scored in 7 of Bournemouth's last 10 home league games.
  • Both teams scored in 8 of Sunderland's last 10 away league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

2 meetings: Bournemouth 0, draws 1, Sunderland 1

Goals: Bournemouth 3, Sunderland 4

DateMatchScore
28 Feb 2026Bournemouth v Sunderland1–1
29 Nov 2025Sunderland v Bournemouth3–2

Home and away

Bournemouth

Bournemouth at home

Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost

  • WonSturm GrazUEFA Europa League15 Oct 20263–0
  • LostLiverpool20 Sep 20260–1
  • DrawnBrentford12 Sep 20262–2
  • WonLincolnLeague Cup8 Sep 20264–0
  • DrawnEverton29 Aug 20261–1

Bournemouth: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
13 scored, 11 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
4 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10
Sunderland

Sunderland away

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • WonTorreenseUEFA Europa League15 Oct 20262–1
  • LostManchester City20 Sep 20263–5
  • DrawnBrentford5 Sep 20261–1
  • LostIpswich22 Aug 20261–2
  • WonEverton17 May 20263–1

Sunderland: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
16 scored, 19 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Bournemouth
Last match
3 days before15 Oct 2026 · v Sturm Graz · UEFA Europa League
Next match
4 days after22 Oct 2026 · v AC Milan · UEFA Europa League
Sunderland
Last match
3 days before15 Oct 2026 · v Torreense · UEFA Europa League
Next match
4 days after22 Oct 2026 · v Lech Poznan · UEFA Europa League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Bournemouth

Since 19 Oct 2024

ScoreBournemouthLeague sides
Scored first23 won, 12 drawn, 5 lost in 40 matches738 won, 239 drawn, 169 lost in 1146 matches
Conceded first5 won, 11 drawn, 14 lost in 30 matches169 won, 239 drawn, 738 lost in 1146 matches
1 goal up at half-time14 won, 7 drawn, 2 lost in 23 matches325 won, 125 drawn, 74 lost in 524 matches
Level at half-time6 won, 15 drawn, 5 lost in 26 matches300 won, 326 drawn, 300 lost in 926 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes14 won, 9 drawn, 1 lost in 24 matches354 won, 126 drawn, 52 lost in 532 matches
Level after 60 minutes6 won, 17 drawn, 3 lost in 26 matches208 won, 322 drawn, 208 lost in 738 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes15 won, 9 drawn, 1 lost in 25 matches348 won, 113 drawn, 37 lost in 498 matches
Level after 70 minutes5 won, 18 drawn, 3 lost in 26 matches163 won, 354 drawn, 163 lost in 680 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes15 won, 8 drawn, 1 lost in 24 matches354 won, 99 drawn, 22 lost in 475 matches
Level after 80 minutes4 won, 16 drawn, 1 lost in 21 matches124 won, 388 drawn, 124 lost in 636 matches
Level after 15 minutes17 won, 25 drawn, 12 lost in 54 matches615 won, 454 drawn, 615 lost in 1684 matches
Level after 30 minutes12 won, 21 drawn, 10 lost in 43 matches429 won, 384 drawn, 429 lost in 1242 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreBournemouthLeague sides
All matches34 scored, 26 conceded (77)872 scored, 872 conceded (2410)
When leading after 75 minutes14 scored, 15 conceded (34)313 scored, 327 conceded (881)
When trailing after 75 minutes14 scored, 6 conceded (24)327 scored, 313 conceded (881)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 39 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 23(league sides: 1,361 times, within 15 minutes 231, by full time 652)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Sunderland

Since 20 Oct 2024

ScoreSunderlandLeague sides
Scored first22 won, 8 drawn, 2 lost in 32 matches738 won, 239 drawn, 169 lost in 1146 matches
Conceded first12 won, 8 drawn, 25 lost in 45 matches169 won, 239 drawn, 738 lost in 1146 matches
Level at half-time15 won, 16 drawn, 12 lost in 43 matches300 won, 326 drawn, 300 lost in 926 matches
Level after 60 minutes18 won, 18 drawn, 7 lost in 43 matches208 won, 322 drawn, 208 lost in 738 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes16 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost in 21 matches348 won, 113 drawn, 37 lost in 498 matches
Level after 70 minutes13 won, 15 drawn, 6 lost in 34 matches163 won, 354 drawn, 163 lost in 680 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes21 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 26 matches354 won, 99 drawn, 22 lost in 475 matches
Level after 80 minutes8 won, 15 drawn, 5 lost in 28 matches124 won, 388 drawn, 124 lost in 636 matches
Level after 15 minutes25 won, 22 drawn, 24 lost in 71 matches615 won, 454 drawn, 615 lost in 1684 matches
Level after 30 minutes17 won, 16 drawn, 17 lost in 50 matches429 won, 384 drawn, 429 lost in 1242 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreSunderlandLeague sides
All matches24 scored, 22 conceded (86)872 scored, 872 conceded (2410)
When leading after 75 minutes2 scored, 7 conceded (30)313 scored, 327 conceded (881)
When level after 75 minutes11 scored, 7 conceded (29)232 scored, 232 conceded (648)
When trailing after 75 minutes11 scored, 8 conceded (27)327 scored, 313 conceded (881)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 45 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 26(league sides: 1,361 times, within 15 minutes 231, by full time 652)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

BournemouthSunderland
75Since 19 Oct 2024Matches with xG83Since 20 Oct 2024
122.70xG for96.69
115Goals scored92
104.78xG against105.59
103Goals conceded98

Bournemouth

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Bournemouth: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
10 Oct 2026at Chelsea1.381.101–5
20 Sep 2026v Liverpool0.791.650–1
12 Sep 2026v Brentford1.750.502–2
5 Sep 2026at Newcastle1.370.712–2
29 Aug 2026v Everton2.161.841–1
23 Aug 2026at Manchester City0.652.251–2
24 May 2026at Nottingham Forest0.951.731–1
19 May 2026v Manchester City2.251.481–1
9 May 2026at Fulham0.821.331–0
3 May 2026v Crystal Palace2.080.893–0

Sunderland

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Sunderland: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
10 Oct 2026v Brighton0.721.410–2
20 Sep 2026at Manchester City3.572.823–5
12 Sep 2026v Arsenal1.801.880–2
5 Sep 2026at Brentford1.711.211–1
30 Aug 2026v Fulham2.020.951–0
22 Aug 2026at Ipswich0.661.801–2
24 May 2026v Chelsea1.840.892–1
17 May 2026at Everton0.761.043–1
9 May 2026v Manchester United1.250.620–0
2 May 2026at Wolves0.661.721–1

Sunderland: 1 without xG left out

This league season

Premier League matches since 21 Aug 2026.

BournemouthSunderland
6 of 6Matches with xG6 of 6
3Points in those matches4
8.49xPts8.36
8.10xG for10.48
8.05xG against10.07

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Bournemouth and Sunderland

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • BournemouthBournemouth
    Ruled out
    J. Araujo (Thigh Injury) · E. J. Kroupi (Foot Injury) · A. Scott (Thigh Injury)
    Doubtful
    V. Milosavljevic (Injury)
  • SunderlandSunderland
    Ruled out
    D. Ballard (Muscle Injury) · T. Meunier (Muscle Injury) · R. Mundle (Knee Injury)
    Doubtful
    W. Isidor (Injury)

Published 18 Oct 2026, 12:57 BST · not changed since

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