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Premier League
Brentford
1–2Finished
Liverpool
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 15:00 BSTMatchday 7

Brentford v Liverpool match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 17 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Brentford's 40% home win probability slightly exceeds Liverpool's 34%, with the model expecting 2.9 goals. Both teams face significant injury absences that could reshape their lineups.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 40%Brentford win
  • 26%Draw
  • 34%Liverpool win

PRO analysis

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PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

BrentfordBrentford

Last 5: 2 wins, 3 draws, no defeats

LiverpoolLiverpool

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Premier League, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 186 of 265.
  • Liverpool won 6 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Brentford unbeaten in their last 5 home games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Brentford 2, draws 2, Liverpool 6

Goals: Brentford 11, Liverpool 22

DateMatchScore
24 May 2026Liverpool v Brentford1–1
25 Oct 2025Brentford v Liverpool3–2
18 Jan 2025Brentford v Liverpool0–2
25 Aug 2024Liverpool v Brentford2–0
17 Feb 2024Brentford v Liverpool1–4
12 Nov 2023Liverpool v Brentford3–0
6 May 2023Liverpool v Brentford1–0
2 Jan 2023Brentford v Liverpool3–1
16 Jan 2022Liverpool v Brentford3–0
25 Sep 2021Brentford v Liverpool3–3

Home and away

Brentford

Brentford at home

Last 5: 3 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost

  • WonChelsea18 Sep 20263–0
  • DrawnSunderland5 Sep 20261–1
  • WonTottenham22 Aug 20263–0
  • DrawnCrystal Palace17 May 20262–2
  • WonWest Ham2 May 20263–0

Brentford: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
17 scored, 10 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10
Liverpool

Liverpool away

Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost

  • WonLask LinzUEFA Champions League14 Oct 20266–3
  • WonBournemouth20 Sep 20261–0
  • WonIpswich4 Sep 20262–0
  • DrawnNewcastle23 Aug 20262–2
  • LostAston Villa15 May 20262–4

Liverpool: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
15 scored, 14 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Brentford
Last match
7 days before10 Oct 2026 · v Aston Villa · Premier League
Next match
8 days after25 Oct 2026 · v Hull City · Premier League
Liverpool
Last match
3 days before14 Oct 2026 · v Lask Linz · UEFA Champions League
Next match
3 days after20 Oct 2026 · v Villarreal · UEFA Champions League

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

BrentfordLiverpool
75Since 19 Oct 2024Matches with xG75Since 20 Oct 2024
120.29xG for139.40
120Goals scored143
106.05xG against88.41
102Goals conceded99

Brentford

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Brentford: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
10 Oct 2026at Aston Villa1.062.282–2
18 Sep 2026v Chelsea2.650.833–0
12 Sep 2026at Bournemouth0.501.752–2
5 Sep 2026v Sunderland1.211.711–1
30 Aug 2026at Leeds1.671.461–1
22 Aug 2026v Tottenham3.870.573–0
24 May 2026at Liverpool1.563.041–1
17 May 2026v Crystal Palace1.711.722–2
9 May 2026at Manchester City0.242.980–3
2 May 2026v West Ham2.270.923–0

Liverpool

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Liverpool: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
11 Oct 2026v Manchester City0.941.280–3
20 Sep 2026at Bournemouth1.650.791–0
12 Sep 2026v Fulham1.280.700–0
4 Sep 2026at Ipswich0.690.752–0
29 Aug 2026v Nottingham Forest1.752.302–2
23 Aug 2026at Newcastle2.981.582–2
24 May 2026v Brentford3.041.561–1
15 May 2026at Aston Villa1.551.912–4
9 May 2026v Chelsea0.560.501–1
3 May 2026at Manchester United0.892.342–3

This league season

Premier League matches since 21 Aug 2026.

BrentfordLiverpool
6 of 6Matches with xG6 of 6
10Points in those matches9
9.02xPts9.37
10.96xG for9.29
8.60xG against7.40

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Brentford and Liverpool

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • BrentfordBrentford
    Ruled out
    K. Furo (Surgery)
    Doubtful
    N. Collins (Calf Injury) · M. Damsgaard (Ankle Injury) · J. Dasilva (Muscle Injury) · A. Milambo (Knock) · K. Schade (Injury) · J. Schuster (Ankle Injury)
  • LiverpoolLiverpool
    Ruled out
    C. Bradley (Knee Injury) · H. Ekitike (Achilles Tendon Injury) · R. Gravenberch (Red Card) · G. Leoni (Knee Injury)
    Doubtful
    C. Gakpo (Ankle Injury) · A. Isak (Thigh Injury) · D. Szoboszlai (Hamstring Injury)

Published 17 Oct 2026, 13:57 BST · not changed since

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