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Premier League
Brighton
5–0Finished
Crystal Palace
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 14:00 BSTMatchday 7 · American Express Stadium, Falmer

Brighton v Crystal Palace match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 18 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Brighton are favoured by the model at 56% to win, with a draw at 24% and Crystal Palace at 20%. Brighton have won four of their last five matches but face a major injury crisis, while Palace showed they can compete in recent head-to-head meetings. The model expects 2.93 goals overall.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 56%Brighton win
  • 24%Draw
  • 20%Crystal Palace win

PRO analysis

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PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

BrightonBrighton

Last 5: 4 wins, 1 draw, no defeats

Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Premier League, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 187 of 266.
  • Crystal Palace won 3 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Brighton unbeaten in their last 5 home games.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Brighton's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Brighton 2, draws 5, Crystal Palace 3

Goals: Brighton 11, Crystal Palace 11

DateMatchScore
8 Feb 2026Brighton v Crystal Palace0–1
9 Nov 2025Crystal Palace v Brighton0–0
5 Apr 2025Crystal Palace v Brighton2–1
15 Dec 2024Brighton v Crystal Palace1–3
3 Feb 2024Brighton v Crystal Palace4–1
21 Dec 2023Crystal Palace v Brighton1–1
15 Mar 2023Brighton v Crystal Palace1–0
11 Feb 2023Crystal Palace v Brighton1–1
14 Jan 2022Brighton v Crystal Palace1–1
27 Sep 2021Crystal Palace v Brighton1–1

Home and away

Brighton

Brighton at home

Last 5: 4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost

  • WonKauno ŽalgirisUEFA Europa Conference League15 Oct 20264–0
  • WonArsenal19 Sep 20263–0
  • DrawnLeeds5 Sep 20261–1
  • WonTromsoUEFA Europa Conference League27 Aug 20264–0
  • WonAston Villa23 Aug 20264–0

Brighton: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
18 scored, 8 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
3 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10
Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace away

Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost

  • LostLyonUEFA Europa League15 Oct 20262–3
  • DrawnLeeds20 Sep 20260–0
  • WonFulham5 Sep 20263–2
  • LostEverton22 Aug 20260–2
  • DrawnBrentford17 May 20262–2

Crystal Palace: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
11 scored, 18 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Brighton
Last match
3 days before15 Oct 2026 · v Kauno Žalgiris · UEFA Europa Conference League
Next match
4 days after22 Oct 2026 · v FK Jablonec · UEFA Europa Conference League
Crystal Palace
Last match
3 days before15 Oct 2026 · v Lyon · UEFA Europa League
Next match
4 days after22 Oct 2026 · v Beşiktaş · UEFA Europa League

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

BrightonCrystal Palace
75Since 19 Oct 2024Matches with xG75Since 21 Oct 2024
118.78xG for120.34
123Goals scored96
102.08xG against104.48
100Goals conceded104

Brighton

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Brighton: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
10 Oct 2026at Sunderland1.410.722–0
19 Sep 2026v Arsenal1.311.633–0
13 Sep 2026at Coventry2.811.335–0
5 Sep 2026v Leeds2.192.491–1
30 Aug 2026at Chelsea1.412.933–4
23 Aug 2026v Aston Villa3.770.294–0
24 May 2026v Manchester United0.791.660–3
17 May 2026at Leeds3.060.390–1
9 May 2026v Wolves1.620.493–0
2 May 2026at Newcastle1.533.161–3

Crystal Palace

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Crystal Palace: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
11 Oct 2026v Nottingham Forest2.413.343–1
20 Sep 2026at Leeds1.061.310–0
12 Sep 2026v Ipswich0.621.672–3
5 Sep 2026at Fulham1.973.143–2
28 Aug 2026v Manchester City0.662.211–4
22 Aug 2026at Everton1.961.120–2
24 May 2026v Arsenal0.982.531–2
17 May 2026at Brentford1.721.712–2
13 May 2026at Manchester City0.731.660–3
10 May 2026v Everton2.561.592–2

This league season

Premier League matches since 21 Aug 2026.

BrightonCrystal Palace
6 of 6Matches with xG6 of 6
13Points in those matches7
10.02xPts6.02
12.90xG for8.68
9.39xG against12.79

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Brighton and Crystal Palace

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • BrightonBrighton
    Ruled out
    F. Azeez (Abdominal strain) · E. Ferguson (Ankle Injury) · Y. Minteh (Injury) · K. Mitoma (Hamstring Injury) · S. Tzimas (Knee Injury) · M. Wieffer (Knee Injury) · Z. Yohanna (Injury)
    Doubtful
    P. Struijk (Rest)
  • Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace
    Ruled out
    A. Disasi (Red Card) · C. Riad (Knee Injury)
    Doubtful
    B. Chilwell (Injury) · D. Henderson (Foot Injury) · J. Mateta (Hamstring Injury) · T. Tomiyasu (Calf Injury)

Published 18 Oct 2026, 12:57 BST · not changed since

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