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Championship
Bristol City
0–1Finished
Blackburn
Tue 13 Oct 2026 · 19:45 BSTMatchday 10

Bristol City v Blackburn match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Tue 13 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Bristol City are slight favourites in this Championship match, with the model giving them a 43% chance of victory compared to Blackburn's 28%, with a 30% draw probability. Expected goals total 2.34, with Bristol City projected at 1.31 and Blackburn at 1.03. Blackburn face significant injury problems with six players ruled out.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 42%Bristol City win
  • 30%Draw
  • 28%Blackburn win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Bristol CityBristol City

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

BlackburnBlackburn

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Bristol City won 29 of 40 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Blackburn won 27 of 41 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Bristol City won 5 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Under 2.5 goals in 7 of Bristol City's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Bristol City 5, draws 2, Blackburn 3

Goals: Bristol City 16, Blackburn 12

DateMatchScore
24 Feb 2026Blackburn v Bristol City1–2
4 Nov 2025Bristol City v Blackburn0–1
25 Jan 2025Bristol City v Blackburn2–1
14 Sep 2024Blackburn v Bristol City3–0
10 Apr 2024Bristol City v Blackburn5–0
12 Dec 2023Blackburn v Bristol City2–1
21 Jan 2023Bristol City v Blackburn1–1
3 Sep 2022Blackburn v Bristol City2–3
12 Mar 2022Blackburn v Bristol City0–1
20 Nov 2021Bristol City v Blackburn1–1

Home and away

Bristol City

Bristol City at home

Last 5: 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost

  • WonWatford18 Sep 20261–0
  • LostLincoln15 Sep 20260–1
  • WonPortsmouth29 Aug 20262–1
  • LostMillwall15 Aug 20260–2
  • LostWalsallLeague Cup6 Aug 20260–1

Bristol City: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
9 scored, 13 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
3 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
3 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
Blackburn

Blackburn away

Last 5: 1 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost

  • DrawnPortsmouth19 Sep 20262–2
  • LostPreston5 Sep 20261–2
  • DrawnLincoln1 Sep 20260–0
  • DrawnWolves14 Aug 20262–2
  • WonBurton AlbionLeague Cup8 Aug 20262–1

Blackburn: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
12 scored, 13 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Bristol City
Last match
3 days before10 Oct 2026 · v Charlton · Championship
Next match
4 days after17 Oct 2026 · v Sheffield Utd · Championship
Blackburn
Last match
3 days before10 Oct 2026 · v Cardiff · Championship
Next match
4 days after17 Oct 2026 · v West Brom · Championship

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Bristol City

ScoreBristol CityLeague sides
Scored first29 won, 8 drawn, 3 lost in 40 matches1098 won, 344 drawn, 212 lost in 1654 matches
Conceded first7 won, 12 drawn, 30 lost in 49 matches212 won, 344 drawn, 1098 lost in 1654 matches
1 goal up at half-time15 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches500 won, 163 drawn, 94 lost in 757 matches
Level at half-time10 won, 16 drawn, 9 lost in 35 matches452 won, 574 drawn, 452 lost in 1478 matches
1 goal down at half-time2 won, 4 drawn, 15 lost in 21 matches94 won, 163 drawn, 500 lost in 757 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes17 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost in 22 matches531 won, 168 drawn, 64 lost in 763 matches
Level after 60 minutes5 won, 17 drawn, 6 lost in 28 matches337 won, 578 drawn, 337 lost in 1252 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes2 won, 3 drawn, 16 lost in 21 matches64 won, 168 drawn, 531 lost in 763 matches
Level after 70 minutes5 won, 15 drawn, 4 lost in 24 matches272 won, 626 drawn, 272 lost in 1170 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes2 won, 5 drawn, 17 lost in 24 matches43 won, 148 drawn, 558 lost in 749 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes17 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost in 22 matches635 won, 116 drawn, 17 lost in 768 matches
Level after 80 minutes2 won, 16 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches170 won, 698 drawn, 170 lost in 1038 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes1 won, 5 drawn, 14 lost in 20 matches17 won, 116 drawn, 635 lost in 768 matches
Level after 15 minutes22 won, 20 drawn, 25 lost in 67 matches906 won, 730 drawn, 906 lost in 2542 matches
Level after 30 minutes15 won, 19 drawn, 16 lost in 50 matches643 won, 624 drawn, 643 lost in 1910 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreBristol CityLeague sides
All matches25 scored, 26 conceded (94)1022 scored, 1022 conceded (3556)
When leading after 75 minutes8 scored, 12 conceded (35)338 scored, 367 conceded (1236)
When level after 75 minutes8 scored, 5 conceded (25)317 scored, 317 conceded (1084)
When trailing after 75 minutes9 scored, 9 conceded (34)367 scored, 338 conceded (1236)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 52 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 23(league sides: 1,862 times, within 15 minutes 318, by full time 825)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Blackburn

ScoreBlackburnLeague sides
Scored first27 won, 6 drawn, 8 lost in 41 matches1098 won, 344 drawn, 212 lost in 1654 matches
Conceded first4 won, 10 drawn, 31 lost in 45 matches212 won, 344 drawn, 1098 lost in 1654 matches
Level at half-time12 won, 16 drawn, 17 lost in 45 matches452 won, 574 drawn, 452 lost in 1478 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes15 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost in 21 matches531 won, 168 drawn, 64 lost in 763 matches
Level after 60 minutes7 won, 13 drawn, 15 lost in 35 matches337 won, 578 drawn, 337 lost in 1252 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes2 won, 5 drawn, 14 lost in 21 matches64 won, 168 drawn, 531 lost in 763 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes17 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost in 22 matches558 won, 148 drawn, 43 lost in 749 matches
Level after 70 minutes3 won, 13 drawn, 13 lost in 29 matches272 won, 626 drawn, 272 lost in 1170 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes2 won, 5 drawn, 16 lost in 23 matches43 won, 148 drawn, 558 lost in 749 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes17 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost in 22 matches635 won, 116 drawn, 17 lost in 768 matches
Level after 80 minutes3 won, 15 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches170 won, 698 drawn, 170 lost in 1038 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes0 won, 3 drawn, 25 lost in 28 matches17 won, 116 drawn, 635 lost in 768 matches
Level after 15 minutes25 won, 20 drawn, 29 lost in 74 matches906 won, 730 drawn, 906 lost in 2542 matches
Level after 30 minutes18 won, 17 drawn, 23 lost in 58 matches643 won, 624 drawn, 643 lost in 1910 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreBlackburnLeague sides
All matches20 scored, 27 conceded (92)1022 scored, 1022 conceded (3556)
When leading after 75 minutes5 scored, 6 conceded (31)338 scored, 367 conceded (1236)
When level after 75 minutes6 scored, 12 conceded (24)317 scored, 317 conceded (1084)
When trailing after 75 minutes9 scored, 9 conceded (37)367 scored, 338 conceded (1236)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 46 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 16(league sides: 1,862 times, within 15 minutes 318, by full time 825)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 19 Oct 2024

Bristol CityBlackburn
94Matches with xG92
114.26xG for106.57
120Goals scored94
125.48xG against113.33
119Goals conceded106

Bristol City

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Bristol City: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
10 Oct 2026at Charlton1.471.781–1
18 Sep 2026v Watford1.560.521–0
15 Sep 2026v Lincoln1.530.530–1
12 Sep 2026at Southampton2.241.711–4
5 Sep 2026at Burnley1.060.262–1
1 Sep 2026at Preston1.781.913–1
29 Aug 2026v Portsmouth0.611.372–1
22 Aug 2026at Birmingham1.431.982–2
15 Aug 2026v Millwall0.523.400–2
2 May 2026v Stoke City1.981.032–0

Blackburn

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Blackburn: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
10 Oct 2026v Cardiff2.421.052–1
19 Sep 2026at Portsmouth0.591.602–2
12 Sep 2026v Millwall1.231.673–1
8 Sep 2026v Sheffield Utd1.600.471–2
5 Sep 2026at Preston1.092.191–2
1 Sep 2026at Lincoln0.241.460–0
29 Aug 2026v QPR0.921.341–2
22 Aug 2026v Middlesbrough0.911.432–1
14 Aug 2026at Wolves0.822.042–2
2 May 2026v Leicester1.402.520–1

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

Bristol CityBlackburn
9 of 9Matches with xG9 of 9
14Points in those matches12
12.48xPts9.97
12.20xG for9.82
13.46xG against13.25

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Bristol City and Blackburn

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • Bristol CityBristol City
    Ruled out
    R. Dickie (Knee Injury)
    Doubtful
    N. Eile (Illness) · L. McNally (Inactive) · L. Tolaj (Knock) · J. Williams (Inactive)
  • BlackburnBlackburn
    Ruled out
    A. Forshaw (Hip Injury) · M. Litherland (Muscle Injury) · L. Miller (Achilles Tendon Injury) · Y. Ohashi (Hamstring Injury) · Y. Ribeiro (Hamstring Injury)
    Doubtful
    M. Jorgensen (Hamstring Injury) · S. Wharton (Achilles Tendon Injury)

Published 13 Oct 2026, 18:38 BST · not changed since

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