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Championship
Bristol City
0–1Finished
Sheffield Utd
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 15:00 BSTMatchday 11

Bristol City v Sheffield Utd match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 17 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Bristol City and Sheffield United are evenly matched in the model's view, with the hosts favoured only slightly at 38% to win. Both teams have struggled recently, and expected goals are nearly balanced at 1.33 for Bristol City and 1.28 for Sheffield United. Key absences on both sides add uncertainty to team selection.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 38%Bristol City win
  • 28%Draw
  • 34%Sheffield Utd win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Bristol CityBristol City

Last 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats

Sheffield UtdSheffield Utd

Last 5: 1 win, no draws, 4 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Bristol City won 29 of 40 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Sheffield Utd won 37 of 55 matches in which they scored first, since 18 Oct 2024.
  • Sheffield Utd won 6 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Under 2.5 goals in 8 of Bristol City's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Bristol City 2, draws 2, Sheffield Utd 6

Goals: Bristol City 8, Sheffield Utd 15

DateMatchScore
6 Apr 2026Bristol City v Sheffield Utd1–0
9 Aug 2025Sheffield Utd v Bristol City1–4
12 May 2025Sheffield Utd v Bristol City3–0
8 May 2025Bristol City v Sheffield Utd0–3
11 Mar 2025Sheffield Utd v Bristol City1–1
5 Nov 2024Bristol City v Sheffield Utd1–2
18 Apr 2023Sheffield Utd v Bristol City1–0
1 Nov 2022Bristol City v Sheffield Utd0–1
18 Apr 2022Bristol City v Sheffield Utd1–1
28 Nov 2021Sheffield Utd v Bristol City2–0

Home and away

Bristol City

Bristol City at home

Last 5: 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost

  • LostBlackburn13 Oct 20260–1
  • WonWatford18 Sep 20261–0
  • LostLincoln15 Sep 20260–1
  • WonPortsmouth29 Aug 20262–1
  • LostMillwall15 Aug 20260–2

Bristol City: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
8 scored, 12 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
2 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
2 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
Sheffield Utd

Sheffield Utd away

Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost

  • LostPortsmouth14 Oct 20262–3
  • LostStoke City19 Sep 20261–2
  • LostFleetwood TownLeague Cup16 Sep 20260–1
  • WonBlackburn8 Sep 20262–1
  • DrawnCardiff29 Aug 20262–2

Sheffield Utd: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
13 scored, 13 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Bristol City
Last match
4 days before13 Oct 2026 · v Blackburn · Championship
Next match
7 days after24 Oct 2026 · v Stoke City · Championship
Sheffield Utd
Last match
3 days before14 Oct 2026 · v Portsmouth · Championship
Next match
7 days after24 Oct 2026 · v Derby · Championship

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Bristol City

Since 19 Oct 2024

ScoreBristol CityLeague sides
Scored first29 won, 8 drawn, 3 lost in 40 matches1108 won, 345 drawn, 214 lost in 1667 matches
Conceded first7 won, 12 drawn, 31 lost in 50 matches214 won, 345 drawn, 1108 lost in 1667 matches
1 goal up at half-time15 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches504 won, 164 drawn, 94 lost in 762 matches
Level at half-time10 won, 16 drawn, 9 lost in 35 matches457 won, 574 drawn, 457 lost in 1488 matches
1 goal down at half-time2 won, 4 drawn, 16 lost in 22 matches94 won, 164 drawn, 504 lost in 762 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes17 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost in 22 matches534 won, 169 drawn, 64 lost in 767 matches
Level after 60 minutes5 won, 17 drawn, 6 lost in 28 matches342 won, 578 drawn, 342 lost in 1262 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes2 won, 3 drawn, 17 lost in 22 matches64 won, 169 drawn, 534 lost in 767 matches
Level after 70 minutes5 won, 15 drawn, 4 lost in 24 matches277 won, 626 drawn, 277 lost in 1180 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes2 won, 5 drawn, 18 lost in 25 matches44 won, 149 drawn, 560 lost in 753 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes17 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost in 22 matches640 won, 117 drawn, 17 lost in 774 matches
Level after 80 minutes2 won, 16 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches173 won, 698 drawn, 173 lost in 1044 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes1 won, 5 drawn, 15 lost in 21 matches17 won, 117 drawn, 640 lost in 774 matches
Level after 15 minutes22 won, 20 drawn, 26 lost in 68 matches917 won, 732 drawn, 917 lost in 2566 matches
Level after 30 minutes15 won, 19 drawn, 17 lost in 51 matches651 won, 626 drawn, 651 lost in 1928 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreBristol CityLeague sides
All matches25 scored, 26 conceded (95)1036 scored, 1036 conceded (3582)
When leading after 75 minutes8 scored, 12 conceded (35)344 scored, 373 conceded (1247)
When level after 75 minutes8 scored, 5 conceded (25)319 scored, 319 conceded (1088)
When trailing after 75 minutes9 scored, 9 conceded (35)373 scored, 344 conceded (1247)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 53 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 23(league sides: 1,878 times, within 15 minutes 322, by full time 833)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Sheffield Utd

Since 18 Oct 2024

ScoreSheffield UtdLeague sides
Scored first37 won, 7 drawn, 11 lost in 55 matches1108 won, 345 drawn, 214 lost in 1667 matches
Conceded first8 won, 4 drawn, 26 lost in 38 matches214 won, 345 drawn, 1108 lost in 1667 matches
1 goal up at half-time15 won, 2 drawn, 8 lost in 25 matches504 won, 164 drawn, 94 lost in 762 matches
Level at half-time18 won, 12 drawn, 11 lost in 41 matches457 won, 574 drawn, 457 lost in 1488 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes14 won, 5 drawn, 5 lost in 24 matches534 won, 169 drawn, 64 lost in 767 matches
Level after 60 minutes13 won, 9 drawn, 8 lost in 30 matches342 won, 578 drawn, 342 lost in 1262 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes20 won, 3 drawn, 4 lost in 27 matches560 won, 149 drawn, 44 lost in 753 matches
Level after 70 minutes7 won, 10 drawn, 7 lost in 24 matches277 won, 626 drawn, 277 lost in 1180 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes22 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost in 26 matches640 won, 117 drawn, 17 lost in 774 matches
Level after 80 minutes3 won, 11 drawn, 7 lost in 21 matches173 won, 698 drawn, 173 lost in 1044 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes2 won, 0 drawn, 20 lost in 22 matches17 won, 117 drawn, 640 lost in 774 matches
Level after 15 minutes31 won, 12 drawn, 29 lost in 72 matches917 won, 732 drawn, 917 lost in 2566 matches
Level after 30 minutes27 won, 10 drawn, 17 lost in 54 matches651 won, 626 drawn, 651 lost in 1928 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreSheffield UtdLeague sides
All matches21 scored, 28 conceded (96)1036 scored, 1036 conceded (3582)
When leading after 75 minutes12 scored, 13 conceded (46)344 scored, 373 conceded (1247)
When level after 75 minutes4 scored, 10 conceded (22)319 scored, 319 conceded (1088)
When trailing after 75 minutes5 scored, 5 conceded (28)373 scored, 344 conceded (1247)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 44 times, equalised within 15 minutes 12, by full time 18(league sides: 1,878 times, within 15 minutes 322, by full time 833)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

Bristol CitySheffield Utd
95Since 19 Oct 2024Matches with xG96Since 18 Oct 2024
116.21xG for138.29
120Goals scored138
125.63xG against115.20
120Goals conceded115

Bristol City

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Bristol City: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
13 Oct 2026v Blackburn1.950.150–1
10 Oct 2026at Charlton1.471.781–1
18 Sep 2026v Watford1.560.521–0
15 Sep 2026v Lincoln1.530.530–1
12 Sep 2026at Southampton2.241.711–4
5 Sep 2026at Burnley1.060.262–1
1 Sep 2026at Preston1.781.913–1
29 Aug 2026v Portsmouth0.611.372–1
22 Aug 2026at Birmingham1.431.982–2
15 Aug 2026v Millwall0.523.400–2

Sheffield Utd

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Sheffield Utd: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
14 Oct 2026at Portsmouth1.802.012–3
10 Oct 2026v Lincoln0.681.393–0
19 Sep 2026at Stoke City0.360.651–2
13 Sep 2026v Wolves0.631.570–1
8 Sep 2026at Blackburn0.471.602–1
5 Sep 2026v Norwich0.793.041–3
1 Sep 2026v Bolton2.211.913–2
29 Aug 2026at Cardiff1.282.242–2
22 Aug 2026at Swansea1.460.570–0
15 Aug 2026v Birmingham0.290.770–0

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

Bristol CitySheffield Utd
10 of 10Matches with xG10 of 10
14Points in those matches12
15.09xPts9.89
14.15xG for9.97
13.61xG against15.75

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Bristol City and Sheffield Utd

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • Bristol CityBristol City
    Ruled out
    R. Dickie (Knee Injury) · N. Eile (Illness)
    Doubtful
    L. Tolaj (Knock) · J. Williams (Inactive)
  • Sheffield UtdSheffield Utd
    Ruled out
    H. Choudhury (Red Card) · F. Seriki (Knee Injury) · J. Shackleton (Health problems)

Published 17 Oct 2026, 13:57 BST · not changed since

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