Burnley v Charlton match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Tue 13 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Burnley are slight favourites against Charlton, though both teams have struggled recently. Severe injuries to key Burnley players including H. Mejbri and M. Obafemi add significant uncertainty to their chances.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 41%Burnley win
- 29%Draw
- 30%Charlton win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
BurnleyLast 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats
CharltonLast 5: no wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats
Head-to-head
Head-to-head data was not available for this match.
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Burnley won 23 of 32 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
- Charlton won 15 of 25 matches in which they scored first, since 9 Aug 2025.
- Burnley without a win in their last 5 home games.
- Both teams scored in 7 of Burnley's last 10 home league games.
Home and away
BurnleyBurnley at home
Last 5: 0 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost
- DrawnDerby19 Sep 20261–1
- LostBristol City5 Sep 20261–2
- DrawnMiddlesbrough2 Sep 20261–1
- DrawnWest Ham16 Aug 20262–2
- DrawnNotts CountyLeague Cup8 Aug 20261–1 PEN
Burnley: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 11 scored, 16 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 7 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 4 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
CharltonCharlton away
Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost
- LostCardiff19 Sep 20261–3
- LostStoke City5 Sep 20260–4
- DrawnWest Brom2 Sep 20261–1
- LostTottenhamLeague Cup26 Aug 20261–5
- WonWest Ham22 Aug 20262–1
Charlton: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 10 scored, 16 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 8 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 4 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Burnley- Last match
- 3 days before10 Oct 2026 · v Watford · Championship
- Next match
- 3 days after16 Oct 2026 · v Wolves · Championship
Charlton- Last match
- 3 days before10 Oct 2026 · v Bristol City · Championship
- Next match
- 4 days after17 Oct 2026 · v Watford · Championship
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Burnley
Since 19 Oct 2024
| Score | Burnley | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 23 won, 4 drawn, 5 lost in 32 matches | 1098 won, 344 drawn, 212 lost in 1654 matches |
| Conceded first | 5 won, 11 drawn, 24 lost in 40 matches | 212 won, 344 drawn, 1098 lost in 1654 matches |
| Level at half-time | 9 won, 18 drawn, 8 lost in 35 matches | 452 won, 574 drawn, 452 lost in 1478 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 1 won, 6 drawn, 13 lost in 20 matches | 94 won, 163 drawn, 500 lost in 757 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 3 won, 21 drawn, 5 lost in 29 matches | 337 won, 578 drawn, 337 lost in 1252 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 3 won, 22 drawn, 6 lost in 31 matches | 272 won, 626 drawn, 272 lost in 1170 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 2 won, 22 drawn, 4 lost in 28 matches | 170 won, 698 drawn, 170 lost in 1038 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 17 won, 20 drawn, 16 lost in 53 matches | 906 won, 730 drawn, 906 lost in 2542 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 11 won, 19 drawn, 15 lost in 45 matches | 643 won, 624 drawn, 643 lost in 1910 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Burnley | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 22 scored, 22 conceded (84) | 1022 scored, 1022 conceded (3556) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 8 scored, 5 conceded (27) | 338 scored, 367 conceded (1236) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 6 scored, 9 conceded (30) | 317 scored, 317 conceded (1084) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 8 scored, 8 conceded (27) | 367 scored, 338 conceded (1236) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 46 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 23(league sides: 1,862 times, within 15 minutes 318, by full time 825)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Charlton
Since 9 Aug 2025
| Score | Charlton | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 15 won, 7 drawn, 3 lost in 25 matches | 1098 won, 344 drawn, 212 lost in 1654 matches |
| Conceded first | 1 won, 7 drawn, 18 lost in 26 matches | 212 won, 344 drawn, 1098 lost in 1654 matches |
| Level at half-time | 11 won, 12 drawn, 9 lost in 32 matches | 452 won, 574 drawn, 452 lost in 1478 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 7 won, 6 drawn, 7 lost in 20 matches | 337 won, 578 drawn, 337 lost in 1252 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 7 won, 11 drawn, 3 lost in 21 matches | 272 won, 626 drawn, 272 lost in 1170 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 4 won, 15 drawn, 2 lost in 21 matches | 170 won, 698 drawn, 170 lost in 1038 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 15 won, 16 drawn, 11 lost in 42 matches | 906 won, 730 drawn, 906 lost in 2542 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 12 won, 15 drawn, 9 lost in 36 matches | 643 won, 624 drawn, 643 lost in 1910 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Charlton | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 13 scored, 15 conceded (55) | 1022 scored, 1022 conceded (3556) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 6 scored, 3 conceded (20) | 317 scored, 317 conceded (1084) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 5 scored, 8 conceded (21) | 367 scored, 338 conceded (1236) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 29 times, equalised within 15 minutes 2, by full time 12(league sides: 1,862 times, within 15 minutes 318, by full time 825)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Burnley | Charlton | |
|---|---|---|
| 84Since 19 Oct 2024 | Matches with xG | 55Since 9 Aug 2025 |
| 93.56 | xG for | 55.00 |
| 106 | Goals scored | 52 |
| 119.42 | xG against | 76.98 |
| 104 | Goals conceded | 69 |
Burnley
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | at Watford | 1.94 | 0.64 | 4–0 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Derby | 0.45 | 1.75 | 1–1 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Swansea | 1.73 | 2.63 | 1–3 |
| 8 Sep 2026 | at Wrexham | 1.50 | 1.28 | 1–1 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Bristol City | 0.26 | 1.06 | 1–2 |
| 2 Sep 2026 | v Middlesbrough | 0.64 | 1.22 | 1–1 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at Norwich | 1.38 | 2.30 | 1–4 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | at West Brom | 1.18 | 1.63 | 1–3 |
| 16 Aug 2026 | v West Ham | 2.33 | 1.33 | 2–2 |
| 24 May 2026 | v Wolves | 0.98 | 2.09 | 1–1 |
Charlton
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | v Bristol City | 1.78 | 1.47 | 1–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Cardiff | 1.26 | 2.60 | 1–3 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Portsmouth | 0.82 | 0.40 | 0–0 |
| 9 Sep 2026 | v QPR | 0.48 | 1.10 | 0–0 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at Stoke City | 0.61 | 2.14 | 0–4 |
| 2 Sep 2026 | at West Brom | 0.39 | 0.57 | 1–1 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v Preston | 0.74 | 1.32 | 1–0 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at West Ham | 0.62 | 2.84 | 2–1 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | v Derby | 0.97 | 1.00 | 2–1 |
| 2 May 2026 | at Swansea | 0.96 | 1.16 | 1–3 |
This league season
Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.
| Burnley | Charlton | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 of 9 | Matches with xG | 9 of 9 |
| 7 | Points in those matches | 13 |
| 10.61 | xPts | 8.81 |
| 11.41 | xG for | 7.67 |
| 13.84 | xG against | 13.44 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Burnley and Charlton
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- E. Agyei (Muscle Injury) · A. Barnes (Muscle Injury) · J. Beyer (Hamstring Injury) · B. Humphreys (Muscle Injury) · H. Mejbri (Hamstring Injury) · M. Obafemi (Inactive) · A. Ramsey (Hamstring Injury)
- Doubtful
- Z. Amdouni (Inactive) · J. Banel (Muscle Injury) · J. Cullen (Knee Injury) · U. Raghouber (Inactive) · S. Sambo (Inactive) · M. Tresor Ndayishimiye (Inactive)
- Ruled out
- N. Chalobah (Muscle Injury) · M. Godden (Muscle Injury) · C. Sichenje (Knee Injury)
Published 13 Oct 2026, 18:42 BST · not changed since
All fixtures