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Championship
Burnley
1–2Finished
Wolves
Fri 16 Oct 2026 · 20:00 BSTMatchday 11

Burnley v Wolves match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Fri 16 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Burnley hold a 38% chance to win according to the model, though a draw (28%) and Wolves victory (34%) remain realistic outcomes. Both sides arrive with significant injury concerns, including Wolves missing striker Raúl Jiménez. The model expects around 2.61 goals.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 38%Burnley win
  • 28%Draw
  • 34%Wolves win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

BurnleyBurnley

Last 5: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 defeat

WolvesWolves

Last 5: 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Burnley won 23 of 33 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Championship, since 4 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 321 of 411.
  • Burnley without a win in their last 5 home games.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Wolves's last 10 away league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

7 meetings: Burnley 2, draws 3, Wolves 2

Goals: Burnley 6, Wolves 7

DateMatchScore
24 May 2026Burnley v WolvesPremier League1–1
26 Oct 2025Wolves v BurnleyPremier League2–3
28 Aug 2024Wolves v BurnleyLeague Cup2–0
2 Apr 2024Burnley v WolvesPremier League1–1
5 Dec 2023Wolves v BurnleyPremier League1–0
24 Apr 2022Burnley v WolvesPremier League1–0
1 Dec 2021Wolves v BurnleyPremier League0–0

Home and away

Burnley

Burnley at home

Last 5: 0 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost

  • DrawnCharlton13 Oct 20262–2
  • DrawnDerby19 Sep 20261–1
  • LostBristol City5 Sep 20261–2
  • DrawnMiddlesbrough2 Sep 20261–1
  • DrawnWest Ham16 Aug 20262–2

Burnley: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
10 scored, 14 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
4 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10
Wolves

Wolves away

Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost

  • LostMiddlesbrough10 Oct 20260–1
  • LostEvertonLeague Cup16 Sep 20260–1
  • WonSheffield Utd13 Sep 20261–0
  • DrawnBirmingham6 Sep 20262–2
  • LostWest Ham1 Sep 20262–4

Wolves: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
11 scored, 21 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Burnley
Last match
3 days before13 Oct 2026 · v Charlton · Championship
Next match
8 days after24 Oct 2026 · v Lincoln · Championship
Wolves
Last match
3 days before13 Oct 2026 · v Bolton · Championship
Next match
4 days after20 Oct 2026 · v Portsmouth · Championship

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Burnley

ScoreBurnleyLeague sides
Scored first23 won, 5 drawn, 5 lost in 33 matches1108 won, 345 drawn, 213 lost in 1666 matches
Conceded first5 won, 11 drawn, 24 lost in 40 matches213 won, 345 drawn, 1108 lost in 1666 matches
Level at half-time9 won, 18 drawn, 8 lost in 35 matches456 won, 574 drawn, 456 lost in 1486 matches
1 goal down at half-time1 won, 6 drawn, 13 lost in 20 matches94 won, 164 drawn, 504 lost in 762 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes15 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost in 20 matches534 won, 169 drawn, 64 lost in 767 matches
Level after 60 minutes3 won, 21 drawn, 5 lost in 29 matches341 won, 578 drawn, 341 lost in 1260 matches
Level after 70 minutes3 won, 22 drawn, 6 lost in 31 matches276 won, 626 drawn, 276 lost in 1178 matches
Level after 80 minutes2 won, 22 drawn, 4 lost in 28 matches173 won, 698 drawn, 173 lost in 1044 matches
Level after 15 minutes17 won, 21 drawn, 16 lost in 54 matches916 won, 732 drawn, 916 lost in 2564 matches
Level after 30 minutes11 won, 20 drawn, 15 lost in 46 matches651 won, 626 drawn, 651 lost in 1928 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreBurnleyLeague sides
All matches22 scored, 23 conceded (85)1036 scored, 1036 conceded (3580)
When leading after 75 minutes8 scored, 6 conceded (28)344 scored, 373 conceded (1246)
When level after 75 minutes6 scored, 9 conceded (30)319 scored, 319 conceded (1088)
When trailing after 75 minutes8 scored, 8 conceded (27)373 scored, 344 conceded (1246)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 46 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 23(league sides: 1,876 times, within 15 minutes 322, by full time 832)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

BurnleyWolves
85Since 19 Oct 2024Matches with xG78Since 20 Oct 2024
94.64xG for89.44
108Goals scored88
121.55xG against112.42
106Goals conceded130

Burnley

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Burnley: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
13 Oct 2026v Charlton1.082.132–2
10 Oct 2026at Watford1.940.644–0
19 Sep 2026v Derby0.451.751–1
12 Sep 2026at Swansea1.732.631–3
8 Sep 2026at Wrexham1.501.281–1
5 Sep 2026v Bristol City0.261.061–2
2 Sep 2026v Middlesbrough0.641.221–1
29 Aug 2026at Norwich1.382.301–4
23 Aug 2026at West Brom1.181.631–3
16 Aug 2026v West Ham2.331.332–2

Wolves

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Wolves: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
13 Oct 2026v Bolton2.231.621–3
10 Oct 2026at Middlesbrough0.680.900–1
20 Sep 2026v West Brom1.950.291–0
13 Sep 2026at Sheffield Utd1.570.631–0
6 Sep 2026at Birmingham2.471.392–2
1 Sep 2026at West Ham0.942.052–4
29 Aug 2026v Stoke City2.660.834–1
22 Aug 2026at Preston1.540.663–1
14 Aug 2026v Blackburn2.040.822–2
24 May 2026at Burnley2.090.981–1

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

BurnleyWolves
10 of 10Matches with xG9 of 9
8Points in those matches14
11.36xPts16.79
12.49xG for16.08
15.97xG against9.19

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Burnley and Wolves

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • BurnleyBurnley
    Ruled out
    E. Agyei (Muscle Injury) · A. Ahmedhodzic (Knock) · A. Barnes (Muscle Injury) · J. Beyer (Hamstring Injury) · B. Humphreys (Muscle Injury) · H. Mejbri (Hamstring Injury) · M. Obafemi (Inactive) · A. Ramsey (Hamstring Injury)
    Doubtful
    Z. Amdouni (Ankle Injury) · J. Banel (Muscle Injury) · J. Cullen (Knee Injury) · S. Sambo (Inactive) · M. Tresor Ndayishimiye (Inactive)
  • WolvesWolves
    Ruled out
    A. Armstrong (Back Injury) · R. Jimenez (Knee Injury) · Y. Mosquera (Ankle Injury) · B. Traore (Injury)
    Doubtful
    R. Gomes (Foot Injury) · M. Ji (Injury)

Published 16 Oct 2026, 18:57 BST · not changed since

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