Cagliari v Bologna match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 24 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Bologna are slight favourites with a 39% chance of victory over Cagliari's 31%. The expected goal total is 2.35, and both teams have significant injury concerns heading into this match.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 31%Cagliari win
- 30%Draw
- 39%Bologna win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
CagliariLast 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat
BolognaLast 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Cagliari won 16 of 27 matches in which they scored first, since 25 Oct 2024.
- Bologna won 31 of 46 matches in which they scored first, since 29 Oct 2024.
- Bologna won 6 of the last 9 meetings.
- Under 2.5 goals in 7 of Cagliari's last 10 home league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
9 meetings: Cagliari 2, draws 1, Bologna 6
Goals: Cagliari 6, Bologna 13
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 3 May 2026 | Bologna v Cagliari | 0–0 |
| 19 Oct 2025 | Cagliari v Bologna | 0–2 |
| 2 Mar 2025 | Bologna v Cagliari | 2–1 |
| 29 Oct 2024 | Cagliari v Bologna | 0–2 |
| 14 Jan 2024 | Cagliari v Bologna | 2–1 |
| 2 Sep 2023 | Bologna v Cagliari | 2–1 |
| 20 Oct 2022 | Bologna v CagliariCoppa Italia | 1–0 |
| 11 Jan 2022 | Cagliari v Bologna | 2–1 |
| 1 Nov 2021 | Bologna v Cagliari | 2–0 |
Home and away
CagliariCagliari at home
Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost
- DrawnJuventus11 Oct 20261–1
- WonLecce7 Sep 20261–0
- LostHellas VeronaCoppa Italia3 Sep 20261–2
- LostInter30 Aug 20260–1
- WonArezzoCoppa Italia14 Aug 20261–0
Cagliari: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 9 scored, 10 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 4 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 3 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
BolognaBologna away
Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost
- WonLecce11 Oct 20262–1
- LostNapoli13 Sep 20260–1
- LostAtalanta31 Aug 20260–1
- WonAtalanta17 May 20261–0
- WonNapoli11 May 20263–2
Bologna: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 12 scored, 9 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 4 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 4 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Cagliari- Last match
- 5 days before19 Oct 2026 · v Monza · Serie A
- Next match
- 3 days after27 Oct 2026 · v AS Roma · Serie A
Bologna- Last match
- 7 days before17 Oct 2026 · v Inter · Serie A
- Next match
- 4 days after28 Oct 2026 · v AC Milan · Serie A
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Cagliari
Since 25 Oct 2024
| Score | Cagliari | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 16 won, 6 drawn, 5 lost in 27 matches | 756 won, 236 drawn, 124 lost in 1116 matches |
| Conceded first | 6 won, 6 drawn, 31 lost in 43 matches | 124 won, 236 drawn, 756 lost in 1116 matches |
| Level at half-time | 14 won, 10 drawn, 13 lost in 37 matches | 319 won, 394 drawn, 319 lost in 1032 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 1 won, 3 drawn, 20 lost in 24 matches | 56 won, 121 drawn, 334 lost in 511 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 9 won, 12 drawn, 10 lost in 31 matches | 238 won, 406 drawn, 238 lost in 882 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 0 won, 2 drawn, 20 lost in 22 matches | 34 won, 111 drawn, 370 lost in 515 matches |
| 1 goal down after 70 minutes | 0 won, 4 drawn, 22 lost in 26 matches | 22 won, 94 drawn, 389 lost in 505 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 16 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches | 432 won, 84 drawn, 11 lost in 527 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 0 won, 5 drawn, 20 lost in 25 matches | 11 won, 84 drawn, 432 lost in 527 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 17 won, 16 drawn, 24 lost in 57 matches | 615 won, 534 drawn, 615 lost in 1764 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 15 won, 11 drawn, 18 lost in 44 matches | 449 won, 424 drawn, 449 lost in 1322 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Cagliari | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 16 scored, 21 conceded (75) | 701 scored, 701 conceded (2422) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 5 conceded (24) | 247 scored, 225 conceded (822) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 11 conceded (36) | 225 scored, 247 conceded (822) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 52 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 21(league sides: 1,244 times, within 15 minutes 183, by full time 551)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Bologna
Since 29 Oct 2024
| Score | Bologna | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 31 won, 10 drawn, 5 lost in 46 matches | 756 won, 236 drawn, 124 lost in 1116 matches |
| Conceded first | 8 won, 9 drawn, 25 lost in 42 matches | 124 won, 236 drawn, 756 lost in 1116 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 14 won, 7 drawn, 1 lost in 22 matches | 334 won, 121 drawn, 56 lost in 511 matches |
| Level at half-time | 17 won, 13 drawn, 13 lost in 43 matches | 319 won, 394 drawn, 319 lost in 1032 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 18 won, 5 drawn, 1 lost in 24 matches | 370 won, 111 drawn, 34 lost in 515 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 11 won, 11 drawn, 10 lost in 32 matches | 238 won, 406 drawn, 238 lost in 882 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 14 won, 8 drawn, 2 lost in 24 matches | 389 won, 94 drawn, 22 lost in 505 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 11 won, 14 drawn, 5 lost in 30 matches | 179 won, 448 drawn, 179 lost in 806 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 18 won, 6 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches | 432 won, 84 drawn, 11 lost in 527 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 7 won, 18 drawn, 6 lost in 31 matches | 109 won, 486 drawn, 109 lost in 704 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 30 won, 20 drawn, 24 lost in 74 matches | 615 won, 534 drawn, 615 lost in 1764 matches |
| 1 goal up after 30 minutes | 13 won, 6 drawn, 2 lost in 21 matches | 291 won, 109 drawn, 58 lost in 458 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 21 won, 13 drawn, 19 lost in 53 matches | 449 won, 424 drawn, 449 lost in 1322 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Bologna | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 23 scored, 27 conceded (94) | 701 scored, 701 conceded (2422) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 10 scored, 14 conceded (41) | 247 scored, 225 conceded (822) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 8 scored, 6 conceded (28) | 229 scored, 229 conceded (778) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 5 scored, 7 conceded (25) | 225 scored, 247 conceded (822) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 47 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 24(league sides: 1,244 times, within 15 minutes 183, by full time 551)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 19 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Cagliari | Bologna | |
|---|---|---|
| 75Since 25 Oct 2024 | Matches with xG | 75Since 29 Oct 2024 |
| 77.15 | xG for | 94.10 |
| 78 | Goals scored | 103 |
| 109.45 | xG against | 83.28 |
| 103 | Goals conceded | 92 |
Cagliari
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Oct 2026 | at Monza | 2.11 | 2.10 | 0–4 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | v Juventus | 0.52 | 1.95 | 1–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Udinese | 1.12 | 2.13 | 1–0 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Atalanta | 1.32 | 1.74 | 2–1 |
| 7 Sep 2026 | v Lecce | 1.61 | 0.50 | 1–0 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | v Inter | 0.48 | 3.67 | 0–1 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at Parma | 0.94 | 0.75 | 1–0 |
| 24 May 2026 | at AC Milan | 2.78 | 1.74 | 2–1 |
| 17 May 2026 | v Torino | 1.32 | 0.99 | 2–1 |
| 9 May 2026 | v Udinese | 1.47 | 2.47 | 0–2 |
Bologna
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 2026 | v Inter | 1.09 | 3.22 | 1–3 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | at Lecce | 1.98 | 1.49 | 2–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Torino | 0.92 | 1.14 | 1–1 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | at Napoli | 0.29 | 1.19 | 0–1 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | v Sassuolo | 1.88 | 1.62 | 2–2 |
| 31 Aug 2026 | at Atalanta | 1.05 | 0.15 | 0–1 |
| 24 Aug 2026 | v Lazio | 1.78 | 0.63 | 0–1 |
| 23 May 2026 | v Inter | 1.40 | 1.78 | 3–3 |
| 17 May 2026 | at Atalanta | 0.69 | 0.76 | 1–0 |
| 11 May 2026 | at Napoli | 1.26 | 0.80 | 3–2 |
This league season
Serie A matches since 22 Aug 2026.
| Cagliari | Bologna | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 of 7 | Matches with xG | 7 of 7 |
| 13 | Points in those matches | 5 |
| 7.55 | xPts | 9.72 |
| 8.10 | xG for | 8.99 |
| 12.84 | xG against | 9.44 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Cagliari and Bologna
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- M. Felici (Knee Injury) · R. Idrissi (Knee Injury) · Y. Trepy (Injury)
- Ruled out
- E. Holm (Thigh Injury) · R. Orsolini (Thigh Injury) · R. Piccoli (Hamstring Injury)
Published 24 Oct 2026, 13:00 BST · not changed since
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