Cagliari v Juventus match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 11 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Juventus are favoured to win this encounter, with the model giving them a 47% chance of victory compared to Cagliari's 24%. The expected goals total is 2.38, with Juventus projected to create more chances.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 24%Cagliari win
- 29%Draw
- 47%Juventus win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
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Form · newest first
CagliariLast 5: 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats
JuventusLast 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Cagliari won 17 of 27 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
- Juventus won 40 of 53 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
- Juventus won 6 of the last 9 meetings.
- Under 2.5 goals in 7 of Cagliari's last 10 home league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
9 meetings: Cagliari 1, draws 2, Juventus 6
Goals: Cagliari 7, Juventus 16
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 17 Jan 2026 | Cagliari v Juventus | 1–0 |
| 29 Nov 2025 | Juventus v Cagliari | 2–1 |
| 23 Feb 2025 | Cagliari v Juventus | 0–1 |
| 17 Dec 2024 | Juventus v CagliariCoppa Italia | 4–0 |
| 6 Oct 2024 | Juventus v Cagliari | 1–1 |
| 19 Apr 2024 | Cagliari v Juventus | 2–2 |
| 11 Nov 2023 | Juventus v Cagliari | 2–1 |
| 9 Apr 2022 | Cagliari v Juventus | 1–2 |
| 21 Dec 2021 | Juventus v Cagliari | 2–0 |
Home and away
CagliariCagliari at home
Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost
- WonLecce7 Sep 20261–0
- LostHellas VeronaCoppa Italia3 Sep 20261–2
- LostInter30 Aug 20260–1
- WonArezzoCoppa Italia14 Aug 20261–0
- WonTorino17 May 20262–1
Cagliari: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 8 scored, 11 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 3 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 3 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
JuventusJuventus away
Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost
- LostSassuolo13 Sep 20262–3
- WonFrosinone23 Aug 20261–0
- DrawnTorino24 May 20262–2
- WonLecce9 May 20261–0
- DrawnAC Milan26 Apr 20260–0
Juventus: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 17 scored, 12 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Cagliari- Last match
- 22 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Udinese · Serie A
- Next match
- 8 days after19 Oct 2026 · v Monza · Serie A
Juventus- Last match
- 21 days before20 Sep 2026 · v Atalanta · Serie A
- Next match
- 4 days after15 Oct 2026 · v Celta Vigo · UEFA Europa League
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Cagliari
Since 20 Oct 2024
| Score | Cagliari | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 17 won, 5 drawn, 5 lost in 27 matches | 744 won, 234 drawn, 123 lost in 1101 matches |
| Conceded first | 6 won, 6 drawn, 30 lost in 42 matches | 123 won, 234 drawn, 744 lost in 1101 matches |
| Level at half-time | 15 won, 10 drawn, 13 lost in 38 matches | 315 won, 392 drawn, 315 lost in 1022 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 1 won, 3 drawn, 19 lost in 23 matches | 56 won, 120 drawn, 329 lost in 505 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 9 won, 12 drawn, 10 lost in 31 matches | 235 won, 404 drawn, 235 lost in 874 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 1 won, 2 drawn, 20 lost in 23 matches | 34 won, 110 drawn, 367 lost in 511 matches |
| 1 goal down after 70 minutes | 1 won, 4 drawn, 22 lost in 27 matches | 22 won, 93 drawn, 385 lost in 500 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 17 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches | 429 won, 83 drawn, 11 lost in 523 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 0 won, 5 drawn, 20 lost in 25 matches | 11 won, 83 drawn, 429 lost in 523 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 18 won, 15 drawn, 23 lost in 56 matches | 606 won, 530 drawn, 606 lost in 1742 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 16 won, 11 drawn, 17 lost in 44 matches | 442 won, 422 drawn, 442 lost in 1306 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Cagliari | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 17 scored, 19 conceded (74) | 694 scored, 694 conceded (2392) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 4 conceded (23) | 243 scored, 222 conceded (808) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 10 conceded (35) | 222 scored, 243 conceded (808) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 52 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 22(league sides: 1,225 times, within 15 minutes 179, by full time 545)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Juventus
Since 19 Oct 2024
| Score | Juventus | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 40 won, 12 drawn, 1 lost in 53 matches | 744 won, 234 drawn, 123 lost in 1101 matches |
| Conceded first | 4 won, 13 drawn, 16 lost in 33 matches | 123 won, 234 drawn, 744 lost in 1101 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 18 won, 6 drawn, 2 lost in 26 matches | 329 won, 120 drawn, 56 lost in 505 matches |
| Level at half-time | 17 won, 16 drawn, 6 lost in 39 matches | 315 won, 392 drawn, 315 lost in 1022 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 2 won, 10 drawn, 8 lost in 20 matches | 56 won, 120 drawn, 329 lost in 505 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 22 won, 6 drawn, 0 lost in 28 matches | 367 won, 110 drawn, 34 lost in 511 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 13 won, 19 drawn, 6 lost in 38 matches | 235 won, 404 drawn, 235 lost in 874 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 20 won, 6 drawn, 0 lost in 26 matches | 385 won, 93 drawn, 22 lost in 500 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 9 won, 20 drawn, 4 lost in 33 matches | 179 won, 446 drawn, 179 lost in 804 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 22 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 27 matches | 429 won, 83 drawn, 11 lost in 523 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 3 won, 21 drawn, 1 lost in 25 matches | 109 won, 484 drawn, 109 lost in 702 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 29 won, 26 drawn, 11 lost in 66 matches | 606 won, 530 drawn, 606 lost in 1742 matches |
| 1 goal up after 30 minutes | 15 won, 8 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches | 289 won, 108 drawn, 57 lost in 454 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 24 won, 19 drawn, 10 lost in 53 matches | 442 won, 422 drawn, 442 lost in 1306 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Juventus | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 34 scored, 23 conceded (93) | 694 scored, 694 conceded (2392) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 16 scored, 9 conceded (46) | 243 scored, 222 conceded (808) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 6 conceded (26) | 229 scored, 229 conceded (776) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 11 scored, 8 conceded (21) | 222 scored, 243 conceded (808) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 40 times, equalised within 15 minutes 10, by full time 27(league sides: 1,225 times, within 15 minutes 179, by full time 545)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 19 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Cagliari | Juventus | |
|---|---|---|
| 74Since 20 Oct 2024 | Matches with xG | 74Since 19 Oct 2024 |
| 76.19 | xG for | 118.98 |
| 80 | Goals scored | 117 |
| 106.84 | xG against | 67.58 |
| 100 | Goals conceded | 72 |
Cagliari
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Udinese | 1.12 | 2.13 | 1–0 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Atalanta | 1.32 | 1.74 | 2–1 |
| 7 Sep 2026 | v Lecce | 1.61 | 0.50 | 1–0 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | v Inter | 0.48 | 3.67 | 0–1 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at Parma | 0.94 | 0.75 | 1–0 |
| 24 May 2026 | at AC Milan | 2.78 | 1.74 | 2–1 |
| 17 May 2026 | v Torino | 1.32 | 0.99 | 2–1 |
| 9 May 2026 | v Udinese | 1.47 | 2.47 | 0–2 |
| 3 May 2026 | at Bologna | 1.07 | 0.53 | 0–0 |
| 27 Apr 2026 | v Atalanta | 1.56 | 1.18 | 3–2 |
Juventus
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | v Atalanta | 1.31 | 0.60 | 2–0 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | at Sassuolo | 1.10 | 1.02 | 2–3 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | v AC Milan | 1.59 | 0.11 | 1–1 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v Parma | 1.58 | 0.25 | 2–0 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | at Frosinone | 2.18 | 0.41 | 1–0 |
| 24 May 2026 | at Torino | 1.92 | 0.85 | 2–2 |
| 17 May 2026 | v Fiorentina | 1.98 | 0.47 | 0–2 |
| 9 May 2026 | at Lecce | 2.29 | 0.88 | 1–0 |
| 3 May 2026 | v Hellas Verona | 2.60 | 0.30 | 1–1 |
| 26 Apr 2026 | at AC Milan | 0.52 | 0.65 | 0–0 |
This league season
Serie A matches since 22 Aug 2026.
| Cagliari | Juventus | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 of 5 | Matches with xG | 5 of 5 |
| 12 | Points in those matches | 10 |
| 5.68 | xPts | 10.71 |
| 5.47 | xG for | 7.76 |
| 8.79 | xG against | 2.39 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Cagliari and Juventus
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Published 11 Oct 2026, 19:12 BST · not changed since
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