Cardiff v Birmingham match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 24 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Cardiff and Birmingham are evenly matched in this Championship fixture, with the model giving each side roughly equal chances of victory and a strong possibility of a draw. The expected goal count is 2.72 with barely any difference between the teams' attacking threat. Birmingham's recent form is considerably stronger than Cardiff's, though Cardiff's injury problems could be a significant factor.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 37%Cardiff win
- 27%Draw
- 36%Birmingham win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
CardiffLast 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats
BirminghamLast 5: 4 wins, 1 draw, no defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Championship, since 4 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 322 of 413.
- Birmingham won 20 of 27 matches in which they scored first, since 8 Aug 2025.
- Cardiff won 4 of the last 7 meetings.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
7 meetings: Cardiff 4, draws 2, Birmingham 1
Goals: Cardiff 10, Birmingham 5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 10 Apr 2024 | Birmingham v Cardiff | 0–1 |
| 13 Dec 2023 | Cardiff v Birmingham | 0–1 |
| 29 Aug 2023 | Birmingham v CardiffLeague Cup | 1–3 |
| 14 Feb 2023 | Birmingham v Cardiff | 0–2 |
| 13 Aug 2022 | Cardiff v Birmingham | 1–0 |
| 30 Apr 2022 | Cardiff v Birmingham | 1–1 |
| 11 Dec 2021 | Birmingham v Cardiff | 2–2 |
Home and away
CardiffCardiff at home
Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost
- WonWatford13 Oct 20265–1
- WonCharlton19 Sep 20263–1
- DrawnStoke City8 Sep 20261–1
- DrawnSheffield Utd29 Aug 20262–2
- LostNorwichLeague Cup25 Aug 20261–2
Cardiff: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 20 scored, 9 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 4 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
BirminghamBirmingham away
Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost
- WonWest Brom10 Oct 20261–0
- WonDerby12 Sep 20262–1
- LostNorwich9 Sep 20261–2
- WonWrexham28 Aug 20262–1
- DrawnSheffield Utd15 Aug 20260–0
Birmingham: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 9 scored, 10 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 4 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Cardiff- Last match
- 7 days before17 Oct 2026 · v Middlesbrough · Championship
- Next match
- 7 days after31 Oct 2026 · v Wolves · Championship
Birmingham- Last match
- 7 days before17 Oct 2026 · v QPR · Championship
- Next match
- 7 days after31 Oct 2026 · v Lincoln · Championship
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 8 Aug 2025. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Birmingham
| Score | Birmingham | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 20 won, 6 drawn, 1 lost in 27 matches | 1116 won, 348 drawn, 215 lost in 1679 matches |
| Conceded first | 2 won, 10 drawn, 16 lost in 28 matches | 215 won, 348 drawn, 1116 lost in 1679 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 14 won, 13 drawn, 11 lost in 38 matches | 923 won, 738 drawn, 923 lost in 2584 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 11 won, 10 drawn, 8 lost in 29 matches | 656 won, 630 drawn, 656 lost in 1942 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Birmingham | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 14 scored, 9 conceded (57) | 1042 scored, 1042 conceded (3608) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 3 scored, 3 conceded (21) | 347 scored, 375 conceded (1257) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 6 scored, 4 conceded (20) | 375 scored, 347 conceded (1257) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 32 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 16(league sides: 1,891 times, within 15 minutes 323, by full time 838)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Cardiff | Birmingham | |
|---|---|---|
| 46Since 26 Oct 2024 | Matches with xG | 57Since 8 Aug 2025 |
| 55.60 | xG for | 82.22 |
| 55 | Goals scored | 77 |
| 67.05 | xG against | 62.02 |
| 72 | Goals conceded | 67 |
Cardiff
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 2026 | at Middlesbrough | 0.91 | 2.78 | 2–2 |
| 13 Oct 2026 | v Watford | 3.67 | 1.46 | 5–1 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | at Blackburn | 1.05 | 2.42 | 1–2 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Charlton | 2.60 | 1.26 | 3–1 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Bolton | 1.79 | 0.48 | 0–1 |
| 8 Sep 2026 | v Stoke City | 2.92 | 0.75 | 1–1 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at Portsmouth | 1.37 | 2.07 | 0–2 |
| 2 Sep 2026 | at QPR | 0.60 | 2.09 | 1–2 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v Sheffield Utd | 2.24 | 1.28 | 2–2 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at Derby | 1.98 | 1.62 | 2–2 |
Birmingham
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 2026 | v QPR | 1.34 | 1.17 | 3–0 |
| 13 Oct 2026 | v Preston | 2.24 | 0.49 | 4–0 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | at West Brom | 2.55 | 1.05 | 1–0 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Middlesbrough | 1.23 | 2.14 | 2–2 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Derby | 3.17 | 1.11 | 2–1 |
| 9 Sep 2026 | at Norwich | 1.63 | 1.01 | 1–2 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | v Wolves | 1.39 | 2.47 | 2–2 |
| 1 Sep 2026 | v Southampton | 1.55 | 1.02 | 1–1 |
| 28 Aug 2026 | at Wrexham | 1.62 | 1.42 | 2–1 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Bristol City | 1.98 | 1.43 | 2–2 |
This league season
Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.
| Cardiff | Birmingham | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 of 11 | Matches with xG | 11 of 11 |
| 11 | Points in those matches | 20 |
| 16.50 | xPts | 18.87 |
| 20.03 | xG for | 19.47 |
| 17.64 | xG against | 13.60 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Cardiff and Birmingham
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- C. Chambers (Knee Injury) · D. Lawlor (Hamstring Injury) · G. Osho (Red Card)
- Doubtful
- R. Colwill (Ankle Injury) · P. Ng (Inactive)
- Ruled out
- M. Leonard (Achilles Tendon Injury) · Paik Seung-Ho (Health problems)
Published 24 Oct 2026, 13:58 BST · not changed since
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