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Championship
Cardiff
5–1Finished
Watford
Tue 13 Oct 2026 · 19:45 BSTMatchday 10

Cardiff v Watford match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Tue 13 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Cardiff are favourites to beat Watford with a 57% win probability, while the model expects 2.88 goals overall. Both sides have struggled recently, but Cardiff's attacking advantage is clear despite defensive absences.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 57%Cardiff win
  • 24%Draw
  • 19%Watford win

PRO analysis

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PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

CardiffCardiff

Last 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats

WatfordWatford

Last 5: 1 win, no draws, 4 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Championship, since 4 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 321 of 409.
  • Watford won 19 of 29 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Cardiff won 3 of the last 6 meetings.
  • Watford without a win in their last 5 away games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

6 meetings: Cardiff 3, draws 2, Watford 1

Goals: Cardiff 9, Watford 6

DateMatchScore
14 Jan 2025Cardiff v Watford1–1
29 Dec 2024Watford v Cardiff1–2
3 Feb 2024Watford v Cardiff0–1
7 Oct 2023Cardiff v Watford1–1
19 Apr 2023Watford v Cardiff1–3
2 Nov 2022Cardiff v Watford1–2

Home and away

Cardiff

Cardiff at home

Last 5: 1 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost

  • WonCharlton19 Sep 20263–1
  • DrawnStoke City8 Sep 20261–1
  • DrawnSheffield Utd29 Aug 20262–2
  • LostNorwichLeague Cup25 Aug 20261–2
  • DrawnWrexham17 Aug 20261–1

Cardiff: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
15 scored, 10 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
3 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
Watford

Watford away

Last 5: 0 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost

  • LostBristol City18 Sep 20260–1
  • LostWest Brom5 Sep 20260–1
  • LostSwansea1 Sep 20260–2
  • DrawnWrexham22 Aug 20261–1
  • LostMiddlesbrough25 Apr 20261–5

Watford: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
5 scored, 21 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
4 of 10
Clean sheets
0 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Cardiff
Last match
3 days before10 Oct 2026 · v Blackburn · Championship
Next match
4 days after17 Oct 2026 · v Middlesbrough · Championship
Watford
Last match
3 days before10 Oct 2026 · v Burnley · Championship
Next match
4 days after17 Oct 2026 · v Charlton · Championship

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Watford

ScoreWatfordLeague sides
Scored first19 won, 7 drawn, 3 lost in 29 matches1098 won, 344 drawn, 212 lost in 1654 matches
Conceded first8 won, 13 drawn, 37 lost in 58 matches212 won, 344 drawn, 1098 lost in 1654 matches
Level at half-time10 won, 18 drawn, 11 lost in 39 matches452 won, 574 drawn, 452 lost in 1478 matches
1 goal down at half-time5 won, 4 drawn, 17 lost in 26 matches94 won, 163 drawn, 500 lost in 757 matches
Level after 60 minutes7 won, 16 drawn, 6 lost in 29 matches337 won, 578 drawn, 337 lost in 1252 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes2 won, 3 drawn, 19 lost in 24 matches64 won, 168 drawn, 531 lost in 763 matches
Level after 70 minutes8 won, 16 drawn, 4 lost in 28 matches272 won, 626 drawn, 272 lost in 1170 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes1 won, 4 drawn, 20 lost in 25 matches43 won, 148 drawn, 558 lost in 749 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes19 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches635 won, 116 drawn, 17 lost in 768 matches
Level after 80 minutes2 won, 17 drawn, 3 lost in 22 matches170 won, 698 drawn, 170 lost in 1038 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes1 won, 4 drawn, 20 lost in 25 matches17 won, 116 drawn, 635 lost in 768 matches
Level after 15 minutes15 won, 20 drawn, 27 lost in 62 matches906 won, 730 drawn, 906 lost in 2542 matches
Level after 30 minutes10 won, 18 drawn, 18 lost in 46 matches643 won, 624 drawn, 643 lost in 1910 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes6 won, 7 drawn, 14 lost in 27 matches105 won, 145 drawn, 432 lost in 682 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreWatfordLeague sides
All matches26 scored, 21 conceded (92)1022 scored, 1022 conceded (3556)
When leading after 75 minutes4 scored, 6 conceded (25)338 scored, 367 conceded (1236)
When level after 75 minutes8 scored, 5 conceded (25)317 scored, 317 conceded (1084)
When trailing after 75 minutes14 scored, 10 conceded (42)367 scored, 338 conceded (1236)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 60 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 23(league sides: 1,862 times, within 15 minutes 318, by full time 825)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 19 Oct 2024

CardiffWatford
46Matches with xG92
55.82xG for105.85
55Goals scored99
63.96xG against118.04
69Goals conceded126

Cardiff

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Cardiff: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
10 Oct 2026at Blackburn1.052.421–2
19 Sep 2026v Charlton2.601.263–1
12 Sep 2026at Bolton1.790.480–1
8 Sep 2026v Stoke City2.920.751–1
5 Sep 2026at Portsmouth1.372.070–2
2 Sep 2026at QPR0.602.091–2
29 Aug 2026v Sheffield Utd2.241.282–2
22 Aug 2026at Derby1.981.622–2
17 Aug 2026v Wrexham0.901.431–1
3 May 2025at Norwich1.772.972–4

Watford

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Watford: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
10 Oct 2026v Burnley0.641.940–4
18 Sep 2026at Bristol City0.521.560–1
12 Sep 2026v Stoke City0.391.501–2
8 Sep 2026v Preston1.262.442–1
5 Sep 2026at West Brom1.261.140–1
1 Sep 2026at Swansea0.882.710–2
29 Aug 2026v West Ham1.600.891–1
22 Aug 2026at Wrexham0.651.921–1
16 Aug 2026v Southampton0.811.712–1
2 May 2026v Coventry1.701.390–4

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

CardiffWatford
9 of 9Matches with xG9 of 9
7Points in those matches8
13.63xPts7.50
15.45xG for8.01
13.40xG against15.81

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Cardiff and Watford

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • CardiffCardiff
    Ruled out
    K. Bielik (Suspended) · C. Chambers (Knee Injury) · R. Colwill (Health problems)
  • WatfordWatford
    Ruled out
    K. Baah (Knock) · E. Bove (Knee Injury)
    Doubtful
    T. Akomeah (Lacking Match Fitness) · J. Ngakia (Thigh Injury)

Published 13 Oct 2026, 18:42 BST · not changed since

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