Celta Vigo v Alaves match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 18 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Celta Vigo are slight favourites at 47% to beat Alaves, with the model expecting 2.56 goals. Both teams arrive in weak form and have each won just once in their last five matches, making this an unpredictable contest.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 46%Celta Vigo win
- 28%Draw
- 26%Alaves win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
Celta VigoLast 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats
AlavesLast 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Celta Vigo won 27 of 45 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
- Alaves won 18 of 34 matches in which they scored first, since 18 Oct 2024.
- Celta Vigo won 4 of the last 8 meetings.
- Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Celta Vigo's last 10 home league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
8 meetings: Celta Vigo 4, draws 2, Alaves 2
Goals: Celta Vigo 14, Alaves 11
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 22 Mar 2026 | Celta Vigo v Alaves | 3–4 |
| 22 Nov 2025 | Alaves v Celta Vigo | 0–1 |
| 27 Jan 2025 | Alaves v Celta Vigo | 1–1 |
| 16 Aug 2024 | Celta Vigo v Alaves | 2–1 |
| 27 Apr 2024 | Alaves v Celta Vigo | 3–0 |
| 28 Sep 2023 | Celta Vigo v Alaves | 1–1 |
| 7 May 2022 | Celta Vigo v Alaves | 4–0 |
| 27 Nov 2021 | Alaves v Celta Vigo | 1–2 |
Home and away
Celta VigoCelta Vigo at home
Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost
- LostJuventusUEFA Europa League15 Oct 20261–2
- WonRacing Santander19 Sep 20265–0
- DrawnMalaga13 Sep 20261–1
- LostAthletic Club30 Aug 20260–2
- LostOsasuna27 Aug 20261–2
Celta Vigo: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 17 scored, 18 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 7 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
AlavesAlaves away
Last 5: 1 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost
- DrawnAthletic Club19 Sep 20260–0
- LostRacing Santander12 Sep 20261–2
- DrawnRayo Vallecano20 Aug 20261–1
- WonOviedo17 May 20261–0
- DrawnElche9 May 20261–1
Alaves: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 14 scored, 17 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 7 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Celta Vigo- Last match
- 3 days before15 Oct 2026 · v Juventus · UEFA Europa League
- Next match
- 4 days after22 Oct 2026 · v Celtic · UEFA Europa League
Alaves- Last match
- 8 days before10 Oct 2026 · v Atletico Madrid · La Liga
- Next match
- 5 days after23 Oct 2026 · v Malaga · La Liga
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Celta Vigo
Since 19 Oct 2024
| Score | Celta Vigo | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 27 won, 12 drawn, 6 lost in 45 matches | 759 won, 246 drawn, 143 lost in 1148 matches |
| Conceded first | 7 won, 8 drawn, 26 lost in 41 matches | 143 won, 246 drawn, 759 lost in 1148 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 9 won, 8 drawn, 3 lost in 20 matches | 327 won, 125 drawn, 60 lost in 512 matches |
| Level at half-time | 15 won, 11 drawn, 12 lost in 38 matches | 343 won, 376 drawn, 343 lost in 1062 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 4 won, 6 drawn, 10 lost in 20 matches | 60 won, 125 drawn, 327 lost in 512 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 11 won, 7 drawn, 3 lost in 21 matches | 364 won, 120 drawn, 38 lost in 522 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 12 won, 13 drawn, 12 lost in 37 matches | 264 won, 382 drawn, 264 lost in 910 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 15 won, 5 drawn, 1 lost in 21 matches | 394 won, 104 drawn, 26 lost in 524 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 9 won, 17 drawn, 7 lost in 33 matches | 206 won, 420 drawn, 206 lost in 832 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 19 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches | 409 won, 89 drawn, 12 lost in 510 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 6 won, 17 drawn, 5 lost in 28 matches | 152 won, 452 drawn, 152 lost in 756 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 26 won, 18 drawn, 23 lost in 67 matches | 640 won, 488 drawn, 640 lost in 1768 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 25 won, 14 drawn, 19 lost in 58 matches | 473 won, 424 drawn, 473 lost in 1370 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Celta Vigo | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 32 scored, 25 conceded (91) | 790 scored, 790 conceded (2446) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 12 scored, 10 conceded (32) | 281 scored, 275 conceded (828) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 11 scored, 10 conceded (31) | 234 scored, 234 conceded (790) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 9 scored, 5 conceded (28) | 275 scored, 281 conceded (828) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 51 times, equalised within 15 minutes 10, by full time 26(league sides: 1,289 times, within 15 minutes 212, by full time 603)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Alaves
Since 18 Oct 2024
| Score | Alaves | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 18 won, 9 drawn, 7 lost in 34 matches | 759 won, 246 drawn, 143 lost in 1148 matches |
| Conceded first | 3 won, 11 drawn, 24 lost in 38 matches | 143 won, 246 drawn, 759 lost in 1148 matches |
| Level at half-time | 9 won, 14 drawn, 17 lost in 40 matches | 343 won, 376 drawn, 343 lost in 1062 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 9 won, 12 drawn, 14 lost in 35 matches | 264 won, 382 drawn, 264 lost in 910 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 7 won, 14 drawn, 12 lost in 33 matches | 206 won, 420 drawn, 206 lost in 832 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 18 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost in 22 matches | 409 won, 89 drawn, 12 lost in 510 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 1 won, 14 drawn, 8 lost in 23 matches | 152 won, 452 drawn, 152 lost in 756 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 0 won, 5 drawn, 17 lost in 22 matches | 12 won, 89 drawn, 409 lost in 510 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 16 won, 13 drawn, 24 lost in 53 matches | 640 won, 488 drawn, 640 lost in 1768 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 13 won, 14 drawn, 20 lost in 47 matches | 473 won, 424 drawn, 473 lost in 1370 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Alaves | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 21 scored, 31 conceded (75) | 790 scored, 790 conceded (2446) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 3 scored, 10 conceded (21) | 281 scored, 275 conceded (828) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 11 scored, 15 conceded (31) | 234 scored, 234 conceded (790) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 6 conceded (23) | 275 scored, 281 conceded (828) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 40 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 21(league sides: 1,289 times, within 15 minutes 212, by full time 603)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Celta Vigo | Alaves | |
|---|---|---|
| 75Since 19 Oct 2024 | Matches with xG | 75Since 18 Oct 2024 |
| 100.10 | xG for | 89.94 |
| 104 | Goals scored | 83 |
| 90.78 | xG against | 92.73 |
| 96 | Goals conceded | 97 |
Celta Vigo
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2026 | at Elche | 0.47 | 0.78 | 0–0 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Racing Santander | 2.14 | 0.75 | 5–0 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | v Malaga | 1.90 | 0.43 | 1–1 |
| 7 Sep 2026 | at Getafe | 1.03 | 0.65 | 1–1 |
| 3 Sep 2026 | at Real Sociedad | 0.43 | 1.05 | 0–0 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | v Athletic Club | 0.75 | 2.78 | 0–2 |
| 27 Aug 2026 | v Osasuna | 0.14 | 2.60 | 1–2 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at Valencia | 0.66 | 0.58 | 0–0 |
| 23 May 2026 | v Sevilla | 1.59 | 0.80 | 1–0 |
| 17 May 2026 | at Athletic Club | 0.15 | 2.49 | 1–1 |
Alaves
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | v Atletico Madrid | 1.30 | 2.05 | 1–2 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Athletic Club | 0.05 | 1.62 | 0–0 |
| 15 Sep 2026 | v Valencia | 1.05 | 0.65 | 0–1 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Racing Santander | 1.98 | 2.01 | 1–2 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | v Osasuna | 1.20 | 1.64 | 5–2 |
| 28 Aug 2026 | v Villarreal | 0.81 | 1.40 | 1–0 |
| 20 Aug 2026 | at Rayo Vallecano | 2.00 | 0.42 | 1–1 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | v Getafe | 1.93 | 0.24 | 3–0 |
| 23 May 2026 | v Rayo Vallecano | 1.63 | 1.34 | 1–2 |
| 17 May 2026 | at Oviedo | 1.46 | 0.45 | 1–0 |
This league season
La Liga matches since 15 Aug 2026.
| Celta Vigo | Alaves | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 of 8 | Matches with xG | 8 of 8 |
| 8 | Points in those matches | 11 |
| 9.96 | xPts | 11.20 |
| 7.52 | xG for | 10.32 |
| 9.62 | xG against | 10.03 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Celta Vigo and Alaves
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- P. Duran (Calf Injury) · J. El Abdellaoui (Knee Injury) · B. Iglesias (Calf Injury) · M. Roman (Knee Injury) · C. Starfelt (Muscle Injury)
- Ruled out
- F. Garces (Suspended) · A. Perez (Red Card) · M. Rodriguez (Ankle Injury)
Published 18 Oct 2026, 14:12 BST · not changed since
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