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Championship
Charlton
0–1Finished
Bolton
Tue 3 Nov 2026 · 19:45 GMTMatchday 14 · The Valley, London

Charlton v Bolton match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Tue 3 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Charlton's model chance of 42% slightly edges Bolton's 31%, with a draw at 28% also likely in a tight contest. Expected goals total 2.63, with Charlton at 1.42 and Bolton at 1.21, reflecting a narrow margin. Both sides have poor recent form and face significant injury problems, particularly in defence for Charlton and attack for Bolton.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 42%Charlton win
  • 28%Draw
  • 30%Bolton win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

CharltonCharlton

Last 5: no wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats

  1. lost0–3at Middlesbrough
  2. lost1–3v Norwich
  3. lost0–2at Watford
  4. drew2–2at Burnley
  5. drew1–1v Bristol City
BoltonBolton

Last 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats

  1. lost2–3v Bristol City
  2. lost1–5v Middlesbrough
  3. drew0–0at Southampton
  4. won3–1at Wolves
  5. lost1–2v Stoke City

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Charlton won 15 of 26 matches in which they scored first, since 9 Aug 2025.
  • Championship, since 4 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 326 of 418.
  • Bolton won 5 of the last 8 meetings.
  • Both teams scored in 7 of Charlton's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

8 meetings: Charlton 2, draws 1, Bolton 5

Goals: Charlton 11, Bolton 17

DateMatchScore
21 Jan 2025Bolton v CharltonLeague One1–2
24 Aug 2024Charlton v BoltonLeague One2–0
17 Feb 2024Bolton v CharltonLeague One3–3
28 Oct 2023Charlton v BoltonLeague One0–2
28 Jan 2023Charlton v BoltonLeague One1–2
3 Sep 2022Bolton v CharltonLeague One3–1
8 Feb 2022Bolton v CharltonLeague One2–1
28 Sep 2021Charlton v BoltonLeague One1–4

Home and away

Charlton

Charlton at home

Last 5: 1 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost

  • LostNorwich24 Oct 20261–3
  • DrawnBristol City10 Oct 20261–1
  • DrawnPortsmouth12 Sep 20260–0
  • DrawnQPR9 Sep 20260–0
  • WonPreston29 Aug 20261–0

Charlton: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
10 scored, 12 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
Bolton

Bolton away

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • DrawnSouthampton17 Oct 20260–0
  • WonWolves13 Oct 20263–1
  • WonNorwich20 Sep 20264–3
  • LostMillwall5 Sep 20260–4
  • LostSheffield Utd1 Sep 20262–3

Bolton: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
13 scored, 15 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Charlton
Last match
3 days before31 Oct 2026 · v Middlesbrough · Championship
Next match
4 days after7 Nov 2026 · v Sheffield Utd · Championship
Bolton
Last match
3 days before31 Oct 2026 · v Bristol City · Championship
Next match
3 days after6 Nov 2026 · v Derby · Championship

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 9 Aug 2025. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Charlton

ScoreCharltonLeague sides
Scored first15 won, 7 drawn, 4 lost in 26 matches1131 won, 350 drawn, 219 lost in 1700 matches
Conceded first1 won, 8 drawn, 20 lost in 29 matches219 won, 350 drawn, 1131 lost in 1700 matches
Level at half-time11 won, 12 drawn, 11 lost in 34 matches465 won, 584 drawn, 465 lost in 1514 matches
Level after 60 minutes7 won, 6 drawn, 7 lost in 20 matches343 won, 588 drawn, 343 lost in 1274 matches
Level after 70 minutes7 won, 11 drawn, 3 lost in 21 matches279 won, 636 drawn, 279 lost in 1194 matches
Level after 80 minutes4 won, 15 drawn, 2 lost in 21 matches175 won, 708 drawn, 175 lost in 1058 matches
Level after 15 minutes15 won, 17 drawn, 12 lost in 44 matches931 won, 746 drawn, 931 lost in 2608 matches
Level after 30 minutes12 won, 16 drawn, 10 lost in 38 matches663 won, 638 drawn, 663 lost in 1964 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreCharltonLeague sides
All matches14 scored, 18 conceded (59)1056 scored, 1056 conceded (3654)
When level after 75 minutes6 scored, 3 conceded (20)323 scored, 323 conceded (1102)
When trailing after 75 minutes6 scored, 11 conceded (25)380 scored, 353 conceded (1276)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 34 times, equalised within 15 minutes 3, by full time 14(league sides: 1,916 times, within 15 minutes 327, by full time 846)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 9 Aug 2025

CharltonBolton
59Matches with xG—
59.77xG for—
55Goals scored—
84.47xG against—
79Goals conceded—

Charlton

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Charlton: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
31 Oct 2026at Middlesbrough0.461.790–3
24 Oct 2026v Norwich0.871.751–3
17 Oct 2026at Watford1.312.870–2
13 Oct 2026at Burnley2.131.082–2
10 Oct 2026v Bristol City1.781.471–1
19 Sep 2026at Cardiff1.262.601–3
12 Sep 2026v Portsmouth0.820.400–0
9 Sep 2026v QPR0.481.100–0
5 Sep 2026at Stoke City0.612.140–4
2 Sep 2026at West Brom0.390.571–1

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

CharltonBolton
13 of 13Matches with xG13 of 13
14Points in those matches14
12.72xPts13.56
12.44xG for17.60
20.93xG against26.46

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Charlton and Bolton

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • CharltonCharlton
    Ruled out
    R. Apter (Knee Injury) · C. Sichenje (Knee Injury)
    Doubtful
    M. Godden (Muscle Injury)
  • BoltonBolton
    Ruled out
    E. Erhahon (Thigh Injury) · R. Hardie (Hamstring Injury) · J. McAtee (Knee Injury) · J. Nelson (Inactive)

Published 3 Nov 2026, 18:43 GMT · not changed since

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