Charlton v Bristol City match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 10 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 41%Charlton win
- 28%Draw
- 31%Bristol City win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
CharltonLast 5: no wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats
Bristol CityLast 5: 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Charlton won 15 of 24 matches in which they scored first, since 9 Aug 2025.
- Bristol City won 29 of 40 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
- Charlton unbeaten in their last 5 home games.
- Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Bristol City's last 10 away league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
2 meetings: Charlton 0, draws 1, Bristol City 1
Goals: Charlton 1, Bristol City 2
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 3 Apr 2026 | Charlton v Bristol City | 1–2 |
| 16 Aug 2025 | Bristol City v Charlton | 0–0 |
Home and away
CharltonCharlton at home
Last 5: 3 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost
- DrawnPortsmouth12 Sep 20260–0
- DrawnQPR9 Sep 20260–0
- WonPreston29 Aug 20261–0
- WonDerby15 Aug 20262–1
- WonHull City25 Apr 20262–1
Charlton: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 9 scored, 9 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 10
Bristol CityBristol City away
Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost
- LostSouthampton12 Sep 20261–4
- WonBurnley5 Sep 20262–1
- WonPreston1 Sep 20263–1
- DrawnBirmingham22 Aug 20262–2
- LostBirmingham25 Apr 20261–2
Bristol City: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 14 scored, 16 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 8 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 7 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Charlton- Last match
- 21 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Cardiff · Championship
- Next match
- 3 days after13 Oct 2026 · v Burnley · Championship
Bristol City- Last match
- 22 days before18 Sep 2026 · v Watford · Championship
- Next match
- 3 days after13 Oct 2026 · v Blackburn · Championship
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Charlton
Since 9 Aug 2025
| Score | Charlton | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 15 won, 6 drawn, 3 lost in 24 matches | 1090 won, 342 drawn, 211 lost in 1643 matches |
| Conceded first | 1 won, 7 drawn, 18 lost in 26 matches | 211 won, 342 drawn, 1090 lost in 1643 matches |
| Level at half-time | 11 won, 11 drawn, 9 lost in 31 matches | 450 won, 572 drawn, 450 lost in 1472 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 7 won, 10 drawn, 3 lost in 20 matches | 271 won, 624 drawn, 271 lost in 1166 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 4 won, 14 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches | 170 won, 696 drawn, 170 lost in 1036 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 15 won, 16 drawn, 11 lost in 42 matches | 898 won, 730 drawn, 898 lost in 2526 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 12 won, 14 drawn, 9 lost in 35 matches | 638 won, 622 drawn, 638 lost in 1898 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Charlton | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 13 scored, 15 conceded (54) | 1017 scored, 1017 conceded (3534) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 5 scored, 8 conceded (21) | 365 scored, 336 conceded (1227) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 29 times, equalised within 15 minutes 2, by full time 12(league sides: 1,851 times, within 15 minutes 318, by full time 822)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Bristol City
Since 19 Oct 2024
| Score | Bristol City | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 29 won, 8 drawn, 3 lost in 40 matches | 1090 won, 342 drawn, 211 lost in 1643 matches |
| Conceded first | 7 won, 11 drawn, 30 lost in 48 matches | 211 won, 342 drawn, 1090 lost in 1643 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 15 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches | 496 won, 162 drawn, 93 lost in 751 matches |
| Level at half-time | 10 won, 15 drawn, 9 lost in 34 matches | 450 won, 572 drawn, 450 lost in 1472 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 2 won, 4 drawn, 15 lost in 21 matches | 93 won, 162 drawn, 496 lost in 751 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 17 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost in 22 matches | 525 won, 167 drawn, 64 lost in 756 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 5 won, 16 drawn, 6 lost in 27 matches | 336 won, 576 drawn, 336 lost in 1248 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 2 won, 3 drawn, 16 lost in 21 matches | 64 won, 167 drawn, 525 lost in 756 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 5 won, 14 drawn, 4 lost in 23 matches | 271 won, 624 drawn, 271 lost in 1166 matches |
| 1 goal down after 70 minutes | 2 won, 5 drawn, 17 lost in 24 matches | 43 won, 147 drawn, 553 lost in 743 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 17 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost in 22 matches | 629 won, 115 drawn, 17 lost in 761 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 1 won, 5 drawn, 14 lost in 20 matches | 17 won, 115 drawn, 629 lost in 761 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 22 won, 20 drawn, 25 lost in 67 matches | 898 won, 730 drawn, 898 lost in 2526 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 15 won, 18 drawn, 16 lost in 49 matches | 638 won, 622 drawn, 638 lost in 1898 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Bristol City | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 25 scored, 26 conceded (93) | 1017 scored, 1017 conceded (3534) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 8 scored, 12 conceded (35) | 336 scored, 365 conceded (1227) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 8 scored, 5 conceded (24) | 316 scored, 316 conceded (1080) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 9 scored, 9 conceded (34) | 365 scored, 336 conceded (1227) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 51 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 22(league sides: 1,851 times, within 15 minutes 318, by full time 822)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Charlton | Bristol City | |
|---|---|---|
| 54Since 9 Aug 2025 | Matches with xG | 93Since 19 Oct 2024 |
| 53.22 | xG for | 112.79 |
| 51 | Goals scored | 119 |
| 75.51 | xG against | 123.70 |
| 68 | Goals conceded | 118 |
Charlton
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Cardiff | 1.26 | 2.60 | 1–3 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Portsmouth | 0.82 | 0.40 | 0–0 |
| 9 Sep 2026 | v QPR | 0.48 | 1.10 | 0–0 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at Stoke City | 0.61 | 2.14 | 0–4 |
| 2 Sep 2026 | at West Brom | 0.39 | 0.57 | 1–1 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v Preston | 0.74 | 1.32 | 1–0 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at West Ham | 0.62 | 2.84 | 2–1 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | v Derby | 0.97 | 1.00 | 2–1 |
| 2 May 2026 | at Swansea | 0.96 | 1.16 | 1–3 |
| 25 Apr 2026 | v Hull City | 1.11 | 0.94 | 2–1 |
Bristol City
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026 | v Watford | 1.56 | 0.52 | 1–0 |
| 15 Sep 2026 | v Lincoln | 1.53 | 0.53 | 0–1 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Southampton | 2.24 | 1.71 | 1–4 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at Burnley | 1.06 | 0.26 | 2–1 |
| 1 Sep 2026 | at Preston | 1.78 | 1.91 | 3–1 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v Portsmouth | 0.61 | 1.37 | 2–1 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at Birmingham | 1.43 | 1.98 | 2–2 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | v Millwall | 0.52 | 3.40 | 0–2 |
| 2 May 2026 | v Stoke City | 1.98 | 1.03 | 2–0 |
| 25 Apr 2026 | at Birmingham | 1.13 | 1.76 | 1–2 |
This league season
Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.
| Charlton | Bristol City | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 of 8 | Matches with xG | 8 of 8 |
| 12 | Points in those matches | 13 |
| 7.23 | xPts | 11.30 |
| 5.89 | xG for | 10.73 |
| 11.97 | xG against | 11.68 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Charlton and Bristol City
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Published 10 Oct 2026, 01:12 BST · not changed since
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