Charlton v Norwich match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 24 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
The model gives Norwich a 39% chance of winning versus Charlton's 33%, with a 28% probability of a draw. Expected goals stand at 2.66. Norwich are marginally favoured but arrive in terrible form—five losses running—while Charlton have dropped points in three of their last five.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 33%Charlton win
- 28%Draw
- 39%Norwich win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
CharltonLast 5: no wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats
NorwichLast 5: no wins, no draws, 5 defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Charlton won 15 of 25 matches in which they scored first, since 9 Aug 2025.
- Norwich won 26 of 46 matches in which they scored first, since 27 Oct 2024.
- Norwich won 3 of the last 3 meetings.
- Charlton unbeaten in their last 5 home games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
3 meetings: Charlton 0, draws 0, Norwich 3
Goals: Charlton 0, Norwich 3
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 21 Mar 2026 | Charlton v Norwich | 0–1 |
| 26 Dec 2025 | Norwich v Charlton | 1–0 |
| 9 Jan 2022 | Charlton v NorwichFA Cup | 0–1 |
Home and away
CharltonCharlton at home
Last 5: 2 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost
- DrawnBristol City10 Oct 20261–1
- DrawnPortsmouth12 Sep 20260–0
- DrawnQPR9 Sep 20260–0
- WonPreston29 Aug 20261–0
- WonDerby15 Aug 20262–1
Charlton: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 9 scored, 10 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
NorwichNorwich away
Last 5: 1 won, 0 drawn, 4 lost
- LostSwansea10 Oct 20261–2
- LostManchester CityLeague Cup17 Sep 20260–5
- LostMiddlesbrough12 Sep 20263–4
- WonSheffield Utd5 Sep 20263–1
- LostStoke City1 Sep 20260–1
Norwich: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 15 scored, 17 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 7 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Charlton- Last match
- 7 days before17 Oct 2026 · v Watford · Championship
- Next match
- 7 days after31 Oct 2026 · v Middlesbrough · Championship
Norwich- Last match
- 7 days before17 Oct 2026 · v Portsmouth · Championship
- Next match
- 7 days after31 Oct 2026 · v Watford · Championship
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Charlton
Since 9 Aug 2025
| Score | Charlton | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 15 won, 7 drawn, 3 lost in 25 matches | 1116 won, 348 drawn, 215 lost in 1679 matches |
| Conceded first | 1 won, 8 drawn, 19 lost in 28 matches | 215 won, 348 drawn, 1116 lost in 1679 matches |
| Level at half-time | 11 won, 12 drawn, 10 lost in 33 matches | 460 won, 578 drawn, 460 lost in 1498 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 7 won, 6 drawn, 7 lost in 20 matches | 342 won, 582 drawn, 342 lost in 1266 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 7 won, 11 drawn, 3 lost in 21 matches | 277 won, 630 drawn, 277 lost in 1184 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 4 won, 15 drawn, 2 lost in 21 matches | 174 won, 702 drawn, 174 lost in 1050 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 15 won, 17 drawn, 12 lost in 44 matches | 923 won, 738 drawn, 923 lost in 2584 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 12 won, 16 drawn, 10 lost in 38 matches | 656 won, 630 drawn, 656 lost in 1942 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Charlton | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 14 scored, 16 conceded (57) | 1042 scored, 1042 conceded (3608) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 6 scored, 3 conceded (20) | 320 scored, 320 conceded (1094) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 6 scored, 9 conceded (23) | 375 scored, 347 conceded (1257) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 32 times, equalised within 15 minutes 3, by full time 14(league sides: 1,891 times, within 15 minutes 323, by full time 838)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Norwich
Since 27 Oct 2024
| Score | Norwich | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 26 won, 9 drawn, 11 lost in 46 matches | 1116 won, 348 drawn, 215 lost in 1679 matches |
| Conceded first | 6 won, 6 drawn, 31 lost in 43 matches | 215 won, 348 drawn, 1116 lost in 1679 matches |
| Level at half-time | 10 won, 10 drawn, 14 lost in 34 matches | 460 won, 578 drawn, 460 lost in 1498 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 9 won, 10 drawn, 9 lost in 28 matches | 342 won, 582 drawn, 342 lost in 1266 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 3 won, 4 drawn, 16 lost in 23 matches | 65 won, 170 drawn, 539 lost in 774 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 15 won, 4 drawn, 3 lost in 22 matches | 565 won, 151 drawn, 45 lost in 761 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 6 won, 11 drawn, 9 lost in 26 matches | 277 won, 630 drawn, 277 lost in 1184 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 1 won, 2 drawn, 23 lost in 26 matches | 17 won, 119 drawn, 645 lost in 781 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 22 won, 14 drawn, 27 lost in 63 matches | 923 won, 738 drawn, 923 lost in 2584 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 19 won, 12 drawn, 16 lost in 47 matches | 656 won, 630 drawn, 656 lost in 1942 matches |
| 1 goal down after 30 minutes | 3 won, 2 drawn, 15 lost in 20 matches | 107 won, 147 drawn, 437 lost in 691 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Norwich | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 30 scored, 25 conceded (92) | 1042 scored, 1042 conceded (3608) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 12 scored, 11 conceded (32) | 347 scored, 375 conceded (1257) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 9 conceded (22) | 320 scored, 320 conceded (1094) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 11 scored, 5 conceded (38) | 375 scored, 347 conceded (1257) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 53 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 19(league sides: 1,891 times, within 15 minutes 323, by full time 838)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Charlton | Norwich | |
|---|---|---|
| 57Since 9 Aug 2025 | Matches with xG | 92Since 27 Oct 2024 |
| 58.44 | xG for | 123.72 |
| 54 | Goals scored | 132 |
| 80.93 | xG against | 124.55 |
| 73 | Goals conceded | 132 |
Charlton
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 2026 | at Watford | 1.31 | 2.87 | 0–2 |
| 13 Oct 2026 | at Burnley | 2.13 | 1.08 | 2–2 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | v Bristol City | 1.78 | 1.47 | 1–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Cardiff | 1.26 | 2.60 | 1–3 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Portsmouth | 0.82 | 0.40 | 0–0 |
| 9 Sep 2026 | v QPR | 0.48 | 1.10 | 0–0 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at Stoke City | 0.61 | 2.14 | 0–4 |
| 2 Sep 2026 | at West Brom | 0.39 | 0.57 | 1–1 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v Preston | 0.74 | 1.32 | 1–0 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at West Ham | 0.62 | 2.84 | 2–1 |
Norwich
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 2026 | v Portsmouth | 0.37 | 1.25 | 0–1 |
| 14 Oct 2026 | v Southampton | 1.26 | 2.16 | 0–1 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | at Swansea | 0.68 | 2.36 | 1–2 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | v Bolton | 0.69 | 1.10 | 3–4 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Middlesbrough | 1.76 | 2.38 | 3–4 |
| 9 Sep 2026 | v Birmingham | 1.01 | 1.63 | 2–1 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at Sheffield Utd | 3.04 | 0.79 | 3–1 |
| 1 Sep 2026 | at Stoke City | 1.44 | 0.58 | 0–1 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v Burnley | 2.30 | 1.38 | 4–1 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at Millwall | 1.02 | 2.69 | 0–3 |
This league season
Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.
| Charlton | Norwich | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 of 11 | Matches with xG | 11 of 11 |
| 14 | Points in those matches | 9 |
| 11.45 | xPts | 13.95 |
| 11.11 | xG for | 16.53 |
| 17.39 | xG against | 18.17 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Charlton and Norwich
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- R. Apter (Knee Injury) · C. Sichenje (Knee Injury)
- Ruled out
- A. Ahmed (Knee Injury) · P. A. Diallo (Injury) · M. Toure (Shoulder Injury)
- Doubtful
- G. Forsyth (Lacking Match Fitness) · M. Topic (Lacking Match Fitness)
Published 24 Oct 2026, 11:27 BST · not changed since
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