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Premier League
Chelsea
5–1Finished
Bournemouth
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 15:00 BST

Chelsea v Bournemouth match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 10 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 44%Chelsea win
  • 24%Draw
  • 32%Bournemouth win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

ChelseaChelsea

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

BournemouthBournemouth

Last 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Premier League, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 184 of 263.
  • Bournemouth won 22 of 39 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Chelsea won 4 of the last 8 meetings.
  • Chelsea unbeaten in their last 5 home games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

8 meetings: Chelsea 4, draws 4, Bournemouth 0

Goals: Chelsea 12, Bournemouth 6

DateMatchScore
30 Dec 2025Chelsea v Bournemouth2–2
6 Dec 2025Bournemouth v Chelsea0–0
14 Jan 2025Chelsea v Bournemouth2–2
14 Sep 2024Bournemouth v Chelsea0–1
19 May 2024Chelsea v Bournemouth2–1
17 Sep 2023Bournemouth v Chelsea0–0
6 May 2023Bournemouth v Chelsea1–3
27 Dec 2022Chelsea v Bournemouth2–0

Home and away

Chelsea

Chelsea at home

Last 5: 4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost

  • DrawnHull City12 Sep 20262–2
  • WonLeedsLeague Cup9 Sep 20266–3
  • WonBrighton30 Aug 20264–3
  • WonLutonLeague Cup27 Aug 20262–0
  • WonTottenham19 May 20262–1

Chelsea: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
15 scored, 19 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
0 of 10
Bournemouth

Bournemouth away

Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost

  • WonReal SociedadUEFA Europa League17 Sep 20262–1
  • DrawnNewcastle5 Sep 20262–2
  • LostManchester City23 Aug 20261–2
  • DrawnNottingham Forest24 May 20261–1
  • WonFulham9 May 20261–0

Bournemouth: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
13 scored, 8 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Chelsea
Last match
22 days before18 Sep 2026 · v Brentford · Premier League
Next match
7 days after17 Oct 2026 · v Everton · Premier League
Bournemouth
Last match
20 days before20 Sep 2026 · v Liverpool · Premier League
Next match
5 days after15 Oct 2026 · v Sturm Graz · UEFA Europa League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Bournemouth

ScoreBournemouthLeague sides
Scored first22 won, 12 drawn, 5 lost in 39 matches730 won, 236 drawn, 165 lost in 1131 matches
Conceded first5 won, 11 drawn, 13 lost in 29 matches165 won, 236 drawn, 730 lost in 1131 matches
1 goal up at half-time13 won, 7 drawn, 2 lost in 22 matches320 won, 125 drawn, 73 lost in 518 matches
Level at half-time6 won, 15 drawn, 5 lost in 26 matches295 won, 320 drawn, 295 lost in 910 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes13 won, 9 drawn, 1 lost in 23 matches349 won, 126 drawn, 49 lost in 524 matches
Level after 60 minutes6 won, 17 drawn, 3 lost in 26 matches207 won, 316 drawn, 207 lost in 730 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes14 won, 9 drawn, 1 lost in 24 matches341 won, 112 drawn, 36 lost in 489 matches
Level after 70 minutes5 won, 18 drawn, 3 lost in 26 matches163 won, 350 drawn, 163 lost in 676 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes15 won, 8 drawn, 1 lost in 24 matches347 won, 98 drawn, 21 lost in 466 matches
Level after 80 minutes4 won, 16 drawn, 1 lost in 21 matches124 won, 384 drawn, 124 lost in 632 matches
Level after 15 minutes16 won, 25 drawn, 12 lost in 53 matches606 won, 448 drawn, 606 lost in 1660 matches
Level after 30 minutes11 won, 21 drawn, 10 lost in 42 matches420 won, 378 drawn, 420 lost in 1218 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreBournemouthLeague sides
All matches32 scored, 26 conceded (75)861 scored, 861 conceded (2380)
When leading after 75 minutes12 scored, 15 conceded (33)308 scored, 323 conceded (868)
When trailing after 75 minutes14 scored, 6 conceded (23)323 scored, 308 conceded (868)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 38 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 23(league sides: 1,341 times, within 15 minutes 226, by full time 643)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

ChelseaBournemouth
74Since 20 Oct 2024Matches with xG74Since 19 Oct 2024
128.29xG for121.32
116Goals scored114
101.67xG against103.68
99Goals conceded98

Chelsea

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Chelsea: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
18 Sep 2026at Brentford0.832.650–3
12 Sep 2026v Hull City0.911.382–2
6 Sep 2026at Arsenal0.392.051–2
30 Aug 2026v Brighton2.931.414–3
24 Aug 2026at Fulham2.241.333–2
24 May 2026at Sunderland0.891.841–2
19 May 2026v Tottenham0.631.722–1
9 May 2026at Liverpool0.500.561–1
4 May 2026v Nottingham Forest2.152.051–3
21 Apr 2026at Brighton0.372.140–3

Bournemouth

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Bournemouth: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
20 Sep 2026v Liverpool0.791.650–1
12 Sep 2026v Brentford1.750.502–2
5 Sep 2026at Newcastle1.370.712–2
29 Aug 2026v Everton2.161.841–1
23 Aug 2026at Manchester City0.652.251–2
24 May 2026at Nottingham Forest0.951.731–1
19 May 2026v Manchester City2.251.481–1
9 May 2026at Fulham0.821.331–0
3 May 2026v Crystal Palace2.080.893–0
22 Apr 2026v Leeds1.650.812–2

This league season

Premier League matches since 21 Aug 2026.

ChelseaBournemouth
5 of 5Matches with xG5 of 5
7Points in those matches3
5.94xPts6.92
7.30xG for6.72
8.82xG against6.95

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Chelsea and Bournemouth

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • ChelseaChelseaJ. Gittens (Ankle Injury) · E. Emegha (Muscle Injury)
  • BournemouthBournemouthA. Adli (Calf Injury) · J. Araujo (Thigh Injury) · J. Kluivert (Muscle Injury) · E. J. Kroupi (Foot Injury) · V. Milosavljevic (Injury) · A. Scott (Thigh Injury)

Published 10 Oct 2026, 13:57 BST · not changed since

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