Chelsea v Tottenham match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 24 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Chelsea are favoured at 56% to beat Tottenham in this London derby, with the draw at 23% and an away win at 21%. The model expects 3.15 goals overall. Both teams face significant injury absences heading into the match.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 56%Chelsea win
- 23%Draw
- 21%Tottenham win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
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Form · newest first
ChelseaLast 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat
TottenhamLast 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Premier League, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 189 of 268.
- Chelsea won 8 of the last 10 meetings.
- Chelsea unbeaten in their last 5 home games.
- Tottenham without a win in their last 5 away games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
10 meetings: Chelsea 8, draws 1, Tottenham 1
Goals: Chelsea 19, Tottenham 9
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 19 May 2026 | Chelsea v Tottenham | 2–1 |
| 1 Nov 2025 | Tottenham v Chelsea | 0–1 |
| 3 Apr 2025 | Chelsea v Tottenham | 1–0 |
| 8 Dec 2024 | Tottenham v Chelsea | 3–4 |
| 2 May 2024 | Chelsea v Tottenham | 2–0 |
| 6 Nov 2023 | Tottenham v Chelsea | 1–4 |
| 26 Feb 2023 | Tottenham v Chelsea | 2–0 |
| 14 Aug 2022 | Chelsea v Tottenham | 2–2 |
| 23 Jan 2022 | Chelsea v Tottenham | 2–0 |
| 12 Jan 2022 | Tottenham v ChelseaLeague Cup | 0–1 |
Home and away
ChelseaChelsea at home
Last 5: 4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost
- WonBournemouth10 Oct 20265–1
- DrawnHull City12 Sep 20262–2
- WonLeedsLeague Cup9 Sep 20266–3
- WonBrighton30 Aug 20264–3
- WonLutonLeague Cup27 Aug 20262–0
Chelsea: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 17 scored, 18 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 7 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 7 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 10
TottenhamTottenham away
Last 5: 0 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost
- DrawnManchester United10 Oct 20261–1
- LostLiverpoolLeague Cup15 Sep 20261–3
- DrawnNottingham Forest5 Sep 20260–0
- LostBrentford22 Aug 20260–3
- LostChelsea19 May 20261–2
Tottenham: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 7 scored, 13 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 4 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Chelsea- Last match
- 7 days before17 Oct 2026 · v Everton · Premier League
- Next match
- 4 days after28 Oct 2026 · v Liverpool · League Cup
Tottenham- Last match
- 5 days before19 Oct 2026 · v Coventry · Premier League
- Next match
- 7 days after31 Oct 2026 · v Crystal Palace · Premier League
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 27 Oct 2024
| Chelsea | Tottenham | |
|---|---|---|
| 75 | Matches with xG | 75 |
| 129.99 | xG for | 90.99 |
| 122 | Goals scored | 100 |
| 101.65 | xG against | 116.89 |
| 98 | Goals conceded | 123 |
Chelsea
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 2026 | at Everton | 1.59 | 0.54 | 2–0 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | v Bournemouth | 1.10 | 1.38 | 5–1 |
| 18 Sep 2026 | at Brentford | 0.83 | 2.65 | 0–3 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Hull City | 0.91 | 1.38 | 2–2 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | at Arsenal | 0.39 | 2.05 | 1–2 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | v Brighton | 2.93 | 1.41 | 4–3 |
| 24 Aug 2026 | at Fulham | 2.24 | 1.33 | 3–2 |
| 24 May 2026 | at Sunderland | 0.89 | 1.84 | 1–2 |
| 19 May 2026 | v Tottenham | 0.63 | 1.72 | 2–1 |
| 9 May 2026 | at Liverpool | 0.50 | 0.56 | 1–1 |
Tottenham
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Oct 2026 | v Coventry | 0.90 | 0.79 | 3–1 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | at Manchester United | 1.62 | 0.80 | 1–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Aston Villa | 1.56 | 1.16 | 2–3 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Everton | 0.69 | 1.11 | 0–0 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at Nottingham Forest | 1.06 | 0.92 | 0–0 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v Newcastle | 1.12 | 0.72 | 0–2 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at Brentford | 0.57 | 3.87 | 0–3 |
| 24 May 2026 | v Everton | 1.15 | 0.41 | 1–0 |
| 19 May 2026 | at Chelsea | 1.72 | 0.63 | 1–2 |
| 11 May 2026 | v Leeds | 1.27 | 1.34 | 1–1 |
This league season
Premier League matches since 21 Aug 2026.
| Chelsea | Tottenham | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 of 7 | Matches with xG | 7 of 7 |
| 13 | Points in those matches | 6 |
| 9.25 | xPts | 9.27 |
| 9.99 | xG for | 7.52 |
| 10.74 | xG against | 9.37 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Chelsea and Tottenham
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- P. Chavarria (Injury) · E. Emegha (Muscle Injury) · J. Gittens (Ankle Injury) · R. James (Knee Injury) · E. Martinez (Broken jawbone)
- Ruled out
- R. Bentancur (Red Card) · L. Bergvall (Knee Injury) · M. Mudryk (Ankle Injury) · W. Odobert (Knee Injury) · X. Simons (Knee Injury) · D. Udogie (Knee Injury)
Published 24 Oct 2026, 16:27 BST · not changed since
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