Çorum FK v Rizespor match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Fri 16 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Çorum FK are clear favourites with a 59% win probability. The model expects a 3.09 expected goals performance with Çorum creating a 0.93 expected goals advantage, though data limitations mean outcomes carry extra uncertainty.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 59%Çorum FK win
- 23%Draw
- 18%Rizespor win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
Çorum FKLast 5: 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats
RizesporLast 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats
Head-to-head
Head-to-head data was not available for this match.
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Süper Lig, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 197 of 252.
- Rizespor won 21 of 33 matches in which they scored first, since 21 Oct 2024.
Home and away
Çorum FKÇorum FK at home
Last 3: 1 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost
- LostAlanyaspor19 Sep 20261–2
- WonEyüpspor6 Sep 20263–0
- LostKasımpaşa22 Aug 20260–1
RizesporRizespor away
Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost
- DrawnGöztepe20 Sep 20262–2
- WonEyüpspor12 Sep 20262–0
- WonGaziantep FK29 Aug 20262–1
- WonKonyaspor15 Aug 20261–0
- LostEyüpspor9 May 20260–4
Rizespor: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 13 scored, 14 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 4 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Çorum FK- Last match
- 5 days before11 Oct 2026 · v Gaziantep FK · Süper Lig
- Next match
- 9 days after25 Oct 2026 · v Göztepe · Süper Lig
Rizespor- Last match
- 6 days before10 Oct 2026 · v Fenerbahçe · Süper Lig
- Next match
- 15 days after31 Oct 2026 · v Kocaelispor · Süper Lig
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 21 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Rizespor
| Score | Rizespor | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 21 won, 8 drawn, 4 lost in 33 matches | 663 won, 198 drawn, 145 lost in 1006 matches |
| Conceded first | 5 won, 5 drawn, 24 lost in 34 matches | 145 won, 198 drawn, 663 lost in 1006 matches |
| Level at half-time | 12 won, 10 drawn, 9 lost in 31 matches | 270 won, 326 drawn, 270 lost in 866 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 10 won, 9 drawn, 8 lost in 27 matches | 196 won, 338 drawn, 196 lost in 730 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 10 won, 10 drawn, 4 lost in 24 matches | 155 won, 380 drawn, 155 lost in 690 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 6 won, 12 drawn, 4 lost in 22 matches | 116 won, 416 drawn, 116 lost in 648 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 20 won, 12 drawn, 21 lost in 53 matches | 541 won, 460 drawn, 541 lost in 1542 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 15 won, 10 drawn, 15 lost in 40 matches | 393 won, 356 drawn, 393 lost in 1142 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Rizespor | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 30 scored, 32 conceded (69) | 738 scored, 738 conceded (2182) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 13 scored, 13 conceded (21) | 291 scored, 259 conceded (760) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 10 scored, 8 conceded (24) | 188 scored, 188 conceded (662) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 11 conceded (24) | 259 scored, 291 conceded (760) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 37 times, equalised within 15 minutes 3, by full time 16(league sides: 1,164 times, within 15 minutes 203, by full time 521)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 21 Oct 2024
| Çorum FK | Rizespor | |
|---|---|---|
| — | Matches with xG | 69 |
| — | xG for | 101.10 |
| — | Goals scored | 100 |
| — | xG against | 87.37 |
| — | Goals conceded | 103 |
Rizespor
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | v Fenerbahçe | 1.52 | 0.96 | 0–3 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | at Göztepe | 0.78 | 2.78 | 2–2 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Eyüpspor | 2.05 | 1.42 | 2–0 |
| 7 Sep 2026 | v Alanyaspor | 1.28 | 2.07 | 0–1 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at Gaziantep FK | 1.17 | 0.79 | 2–1 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Samsunspor | 1.85 | 0.33 | 0–2 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | at Konyaspor | 1.52 | 0.62 | 1–0 |
| 15 May 2026 | v Beşiktaş | 2.87 | 1.82 | 2–2 |
| 9 May 2026 | at Eyüpspor | 0.75 | 1.67 | 0–4 |
| 1 May 2026 | v Konyaspor | 1.40 | 1.40 | 3–2 |
This league season
Süper Lig matches since 14 Aug 2026.
| Çorum FK | Rizespor | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 of 7 | Matches with xG | 7 of 7 |
| 10 | Points in those matches | 10 |
| 10.38 | xPts | 10.94 |
| 10.48 | xG for | 10.17 |
| 10.32 | xG against | 8.97 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Çorum FK and Rizespor
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- K. Alikulov (Knee Injury)
Published 16 Oct 2026, 16:57 BST · not changed since
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