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Premier League
Coventry
4–1Finished
Newcastle
Mon 12 Oct 2026 · 20:00 BSTMatchday 6

Coventry v Newcastle match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Mon 12 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Coventry are favoured at home with a 48% win probability, though Newcastle arrive with better recent form. Both teams are hampered by injuries; Coventry are without Awoniyi and four others ruled out, while Newcastle have seven players doubtful or unavailable. The model expects around 3.24 goals in total.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 47%Coventry win
  • 25%Draw
  • 28%Newcastle win

PRO analysis

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PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

CoventryCoventry

Last 5: 1 win, no draws, 4 defeats

NewcastleNewcastle

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

Head-to-head

Head-to-head data was not available for this match.

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Coventry won 41 of 53 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Premier League, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 185 of 264.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 8 of Coventry's last 10 home league games.

Home and away

Coventry

Coventry at home

Last 5: 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost

  • LostAston VillaLeague Cup16 Sep 20261–3
  • LostBrighton13 Sep 20260–5
  • LostHull City29 Aug 20260–1
  • WonWrexhamChampionship26 Apr 20263–1
  • WonPortsmouthChampionship21 Apr 20265–1

Coventry: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
20 scored, 14 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
8 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10
Newcastle

Newcastle away

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • LostLeeds14 Sep 20261–4
  • WonMillwallLeague Cup8 Sep 20261–0
  • WonTottenham29 Aug 20262–0
  • LostFulham24 May 20260–2
  • DrawnNottingham Forest10 May 20261–1

Newcastle: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
10 scored, 17 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Coventry
Last match
23 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Nottingham Forest · Premier League
Next match
7 days after19 Oct 2026 · v Tottenham · Premier League
Newcastle
Last match
23 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Hull City · Premier League
Next match
5 days after17 Oct 2026 · v Aston Villa · Premier League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Coventry

ScoreCoventryLeague sides
Scored first41 won, 6 drawn, 6 lost in 53 matches733 won, 239 drawn, 168 lost in 1140 matches
Conceded first7 won, 6 drawn, 18 lost in 31 matches168 won, 239 drawn, 733 lost in 1140 matches
1 goal up at half-time15 won, 4 drawn, 3 lost in 22 matches321 won, 125 drawn, 73 lost in 519 matches
Level at half-time15 won, 10 drawn, 9 lost in 34 matches299 won, 326 drawn, 299 lost in 924 matches
2+ goals up after 60 minutes20 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches288 won, 11 drawn, 4 lost in 303 matches
Level after 60 minutes15 won, 9 drawn, 8 lost in 32 matches208 won, 322 drawn, 208 lost in 738 matches
Level after 70 minutes12 won, 10 drawn, 6 lost in 28 matches163 won, 354 drawn, 163 lost in 680 matches
2+ goals up after 80 minutes24 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches405 won, 5 drawn, 1 lost in 411 matches
Level after 80 minutes8 won, 13 drawn, 3 lost in 24 matches124 won, 388 drawn, 124 lost in 636 matches
Level after 15 minutes32 won, 13 drawn, 20 lost in 65 matches610 won, 454 drawn, 610 lost in 1674 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes18 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost in 22 matches311 won, 103 drawn, 78 lost in 492 matches
Level after 30 minutes20 won, 13 drawn, 14 lost in 47 matches424 won, 384 drawn, 424 lost in 1232 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreCoventryLeague sides
All matches37 scored, 20 conceded (90)868 scored, 868 conceded (2398)
When leading after 75 minutes14 scored, 10 conceded (40)310 scored, 326 conceded (875)
When level after 75 minutes12 scored, 3 conceded (24)232 scored, 232 conceded (648)
When trailing after 75 minutes11 scored, 7 conceded (26)326 scored, 310 conceded (875)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 39 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 19(league sides: 1,353 times, within 15 minutes 230, by full time 650)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 19 Oct 2024

CoventryNewcastle
89Matches with xG74
151.06xG for117.40
153Goals scored122
103.59xG against96.42
102Goals conceded104

Coventry

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Coventry: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
19 Sep 2026at Nottingham Forest0.671.101–0
13 Sep 2026v Brighton1.332.810–5
5 Sep 2026at Manchester City1.372.120–1
29 Aug 2026v Hull City1.290.720–1
21 Aug 2026at Arsenal0.201.880–3
2 May 2026at Watford1.391.704–0
26 Apr 2026v Wrexham1.581.253–1
21 Apr 2026v Portsmouth3.260.105–1
17 Apr 2026at Blackburn1.491.041–1
11 Apr 2026v Sheffield Wednesday2.330.650–0

Newcastle

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Newcastle: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
19 Sep 2026v Hull City1.441.592–1
14 Sep 2026at Leeds0.882.081–4
5 Sep 2026v Bournemouth0.711.372–2
29 Aug 2026at Tottenham0.721.122–0
23 Aug 2026v Liverpool1.582.982–2
24 May 2026at Fulham0.311.810–2
17 May 2026v West Ham1.730.953–1
10 May 2026at Nottingham Forest1.481.101–1
2 May 2026v Brighton3.161.533–1
25 Apr 2026at Arsenal1.000.490–1

Coventry: 1 without xG left out

This league season

Premier League matches since 21 Aug 2026.

CoventryNewcastle
5 of 5Matches with xG5 of 5
3Points in those matches8
4.63xPts4.51
4.86xG for5.33
8.63xG against9.14

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Coventry and Newcastle

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • CoventryCoventry
    Ruled out
    A. Amenda (Calf Injury) · T. Awoniyi (Red Card) · J. Eccles (Injury) · L. Woolfenden (Knee Injury) · H. Wright (Muscle Injury)
    Doubtful
    K. Kesler-Hayden (Muscle Injury) · J. Latibeaudiere (Injury)
  • NewcastleNewcastle
    Ruled out
    A. Elanga (Knee Injury) · E. Jaouen (Muscle Injury)
    Doubtful
    D. Burn (Ankle Injury) · Joelinton (Thigh Injury) · V. Livramento (Injury) · W. Osula (Foot Injury) · J. Ramsey (Injury)

Published 12 Oct 2026, 18:57 BST · not changed since

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