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Premier League
Crystal Palace
0–2Finished
Newcastle
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 14:00 GMTMatchday 8 · Selhurst Park, London

Crystal Palace v Newcastle match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 25 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

The model rates this as a tight contest, giving Crystal Palace a 38% chance of victory and Newcastle 36%, with a 26% probability of a draw. Expected goals total 2.92. Palace face defensive injury concerns with two ruled out and three doubtful, while Newcastle have two missing and two doubtful players.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 38%Crystal Palace win
  • 26%Draw
  • 36%Newcastle win

PRO analysis

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PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace

Last 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats

NewcastleNewcastle

Last 5: 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Crystal Palace won 27 of 42 matches in which they scored first, since 27 Oct 2024.
  • Newcastle won 39 of 57 matches in which they scored first, since 27 Oct 2024.
  • Newcastle won 4 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Crystal Palace's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Crystal Palace 2, draws 4, Newcastle 4

Goals: Crystal Palace 5, Newcastle 14

DateMatchScore
12 Apr 2026Crystal Palace v Newcastle2–1
4 Jan 2026Newcastle v Crystal Palace2–0
16 Apr 2025Newcastle v Crystal Palace5–0
30 Nov 2024Crystal Palace v Newcastle1–1
24 Apr 2024Crystal Palace v Newcastle2–0
21 Oct 2023Newcastle v Crystal Palace4–0
21 Jan 2023Crystal Palace v Newcastle0–0
9 Nov 2022Newcastle v Crystal PalaceLeague Cup0–0 PEN
3 Sep 2022Newcastle v Crystal Palace0–0
20 Apr 2022Newcastle v Crystal Palace1–0

Home and away

Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace at home

Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost

  • WonNottingham Forest11 Oct 20263–1
  • WonLech PoznanUEFA Europa League17 Sep 20264–0
  • LostIpswich12 Sep 20262–3
  • WonMiddlesbroughLeague Cup8 Sep 20263–0
  • LostManchester City28 Aug 20261–4

Crystal Palace: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
14 scored, 16 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
Newcastle

Newcastle away

Last 5: 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost

  • LostCoventry12 Oct 20261–4
  • LostLeeds14 Sep 20261–4
  • WonMillwallLeague Cup8 Sep 20261–0
  • WonTottenham29 Aug 20262–0
  • LostFulham24 May 20260–2

Newcastle: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
10 scored, 17 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Crystal Palace
Last match
3 days before22 Oct 2026 · v Beşiktaş · UEFA Europa League
Next match
3 days after28 Oct 2026 · v Fulham · League Cup
Newcastle
Last match
8 days before17 Oct 2026 · v Aston Villa · Premier League
Next match
4 days after29 Oct 2026 · v Everton · League Cup

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 27 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Crystal Palace

ScoreCrystal PalaceLeague sides
Scored first27 won, 8 drawn, 7 lost in 42 matches746 won, 241 drawn, 169 lost in 1156 matches
Conceded first6 won, 8 drawn, 20 lost in 34 matches169 won, 241 drawn, 746 lost in 1156 matches
1 goal up at half-time15 won, 4 drawn, 3 lost in 22 matches329 won, 126 drawn, 74 lost in 529 matches
Level at half-time11 won, 16 drawn, 4 lost in 31 matches303 won, 328 drawn, 303 lost in 934 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes13 won, 8 drawn, 1 lost in 22 matches357 won, 126 drawn, 52 lost in 535 matches
Level after 60 minutes8 won, 11 drawn, 6 lost in 25 matches211 won, 326 drawn, 211 lost in 748 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes15 won, 5 drawn, 1 lost in 21 matches350 won, 113 drawn, 37 lost in 500 matches
Level after 70 minutes4 won, 15 drawn, 3 lost in 22 matches166 won, 358 drawn, 166 lost in 690 matches
Level after 80 minutes4 won, 19 drawn, 2 lost in 25 matches124 won, 392 drawn, 124 lost in 640 matches
Level after 15 minutes27 won, 16 drawn, 19 lost in 62 matches618 won, 456 drawn, 618 lost in 1692 matches
Level after 30 minutes21 won, 17 drawn, 17 lost in 55 matches432 won, 386 drawn, 432 lost in 1250 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreCrystal PalaceLeague sides
All matches31 scored, 24 conceded (85)878 scored, 878 conceded (2430)
When leading after 75 minutes12 scored, 8 conceded (33)315 scored, 327 conceded (886)
When level after 75 minutes5 scored, 3 conceded (21)236 scored, 236 conceded (658)
When trailing after 75 minutes14 scored, 13 conceded (31)327 scored, 315 conceded (886)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 45 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 21(league sides: 1,370 times, within 15 minutes 231, by full time 656)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Newcastle

ScoreNewcastleLeague sides
Scored first39 won, 8 drawn, 10 lost in 57 matches746 won, 241 drawn, 169 lost in 1156 matches
Conceded first7 won, 4 drawn, 26 lost in 37 matches169 won, 241 drawn, 746 lost in 1156 matches
1 goal up at half-time18 won, 2 drawn, 6 lost in 26 matches329 won, 126 drawn, 74 lost in 529 matches
Level at half-time10 won, 10 drawn, 9 lost in 29 matches303 won, 328 drawn, 303 lost in 934 matches
1 goal down at half-time3 won, 3 drawn, 18 lost in 24 matches74 won, 126 drawn, 329 lost in 529 matches
2+ goals up after 60 minutes22 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 22 matches291 won, 11 drawn, 4 lost in 306 matches
Level after 60 minutes10 won, 11 drawn, 4 lost in 25 matches211 won, 326 drawn, 211 lost in 748 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes1 won, 2 drawn, 23 lost in 26 matches52 won, 126 drawn, 357 lost in 535 matches
2+ goals up after 70 minutes22 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 22 matches360 won, 8 drawn, 2 lost in 370 matches
Level after 70 minutes9 won, 12 drawn, 4 lost in 25 matches166 won, 358 drawn, 166 lost in 690 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes0 won, 2 drawn, 21 lost in 23 matches37 won, 113 drawn, 350 lost in 500 matches
2+ goals up after 80 minutes24 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches409 won, 5 drawn, 1 lost in 415 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes16 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost in 21 matches359 won, 99 drawn, 22 lost in 480 matches
Level after 80 minutes5 won, 10 drawn, 6 lost in 21 matches124 won, 392 drawn, 124 lost in 640 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes1 won, 2 drawn, 18 lost in 21 matches22 won, 99 drawn, 359 lost in 480 matches
Level after 15 minutes26 won, 11 drawn, 25 lost in 62 matches618 won, 456 drawn, 618 lost in 1692 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes16 won, 2 drawn, 6 lost in 24 matches316 won, 104 drawn, 78 lost in 498 matches
Level after 30 minutes17 won, 9 drawn, 17 lost in 43 matches432 won, 386 drawn, 432 lost in 1250 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreNewcastleLeague sides
All matches32 scored, 38 conceded (98)878 scored, 878 conceded (2430)
When leading after 75 minutes14 scored, 15 conceded (47)315 scored, 327 conceded (886)
When trailing after 75 minutes8 scored, 15 conceded (32)327 scored, 315 conceded (886)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 52 times, equalised within 15 minutes 10, by full time 26(league sides: 1,370 times, within 15 minutes 231, by full time 656)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 27 Oct 2024

Crystal PalaceNewcastle
75Matches with xG75
120.14xG for118.29
96Goals scored123
104.72xG against98.40
108Goals conceded108

Crystal Palace

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Crystal Palace: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
18 Oct 2026at Brighton0.772.000–5
11 Oct 2026v Nottingham Forest2.413.343–1
20 Sep 2026at Leeds1.061.310–0
12 Sep 2026v Ipswich0.621.672–3
5 Sep 2026at Fulham1.973.143–2
28 Aug 2026v Manchester City0.662.211–4
22 Aug 2026at Everton1.961.120–2
24 May 2026v Arsenal0.982.531–2
17 May 2026at Brentford1.721.712–2
13 May 2026at Manchester City0.731.660–3

Newcastle

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Newcastle: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
17 Oct 2026v Aston Villa1.071.630–1
12 Oct 2026at Coventry1.841.471–4
19 Sep 2026v Hull City1.441.592–1
14 Sep 2026at Leeds0.882.081–4
5 Sep 2026v Bournemouth0.711.372–2
29 Aug 2026at Tottenham0.721.122–0
23 Aug 2026v Liverpool1.582.982–2
24 May 2026at Fulham0.311.810–2
17 May 2026v West Ham1.730.953–1
10 May 2026at Nottingham Forest1.481.101–1

This league season

Premier League matches since 21 Aug 2026.

Crystal PalaceNewcastle
7 of 7Matches with xG7 of 7
7Points in those matches8
6.63xPts7.12
9.45xG for8.24
14.79xG against12.24

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Crystal Palace and Newcastle

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace
    Ruled out
    C. Riad (Knee Injury) · T. Tomiyasu (Calf Injury)
    Doubtful
    D. Henderson (Foot Injury) · J. Larsen (Injury) · Q. Timber (Injury)
  • NewcastleNewcastle
    Ruled out
    E. Jaouen (Muscle Injury) · V. Livramento (Knee Injury)
    Doubtful
    A. Elanga (Knee Injury) · J. Ramsey (Thigh Injury)

Published 25 Oct 2026, 12:58 GMT · not changed since

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