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Premier League
Crystal Palace
3–1Finished
Nottingham Forest
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 14:00 BSTMatchday 6

Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 11 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Crystal Palace hold a marginal model advantage at 38% to win over Nottingham Forest's 34%, with a 28% chance of a draw. Expected goals are evenly split at 1.33 and 1.28 respectively. Both teams arrive with significant injury concerns that could shape the contest.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 38%Crystal Palace win
  • 28%Draw
  • 34%Nottingham Forest win

PRO analysis

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest

Last 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Premier League, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 185 of 264.
  • Nottingham Forest won 32 of 39 matches in which they scored first, since 21 Oct 2024.
  • Nottingham Forest won 2 of the last 8 meetings.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Crystal Palace's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

8 meetings: Crystal Palace 0, draws 6, Nottingham Forest 2

Goals: Crystal Palace 5, Nottingham Forest 7

DateMatchScore
1 Feb 2026Nottingham Forest v Crystal Palace1–1
24 Aug 2025Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest1–1
5 May 2025Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest1–1
21 Oct 2024Nottingham Forest v Crystal Palace1–0
30 Mar 2024Nottingham Forest v Crystal Palace1–1
7 Oct 2023Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest0–0
28 May 2023Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest1–1
12 Nov 2022Nottingham Forest v Crystal Palace1–0

Home and away

Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace at home

Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost

  • WonLech PoznanUEFA Europa League17 Sep 20264–0
  • LostIpswich12 Sep 20262–3
  • WonMiddlesbroughLeague Cup8 Sep 20263–0
  • LostManchester City28 Aug 20261–4
  • WonRayo VallecanoUEFA Europa Conference League27 May 20261–0

Crystal Palace: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
12 scored, 18 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest away

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • WonAston Villa12 Sep 20262–1
  • DrawnLiverpool29 Aug 20262–2
  • LostManchester United17 May 20262–3
  • LostAston VillaUEFA Europa League7 May 20260–4
  • WonChelsea4 May 20263–1

Nottingham Forest: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
23 scored, 14 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
9 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Crystal Palace
Last match
21 days before20 Sep 2026 · v Leeds · Premier League
Next match
4 days after15 Oct 2026 · v Lyon · UEFA Europa League
Nottingham Forest
Last match
22 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Coventry · Premier League
Next match
7 days after18 Oct 2026 · v Arsenal · Premier League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 21 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Nottingham Forest

ScoreNottingham ForestLeague sides
Scored first32 won, 5 drawn, 2 lost in 39 matches732 won, 238 drawn, 167 lost in 1137 matches
Conceded first4 won, 9 drawn, 31 lost in 44 matches167 won, 238 drawn, 732 lost in 1137 matches
Level at half-time11 won, 13 drawn, 12 lost in 36 matches298 won, 324 drawn, 298 lost in 920 matches
Level after 60 minutes7 won, 15 drawn, 8 lost in 30 matches207 won, 320 drawn, 207 lost in 734 matches
Level after 70 minutes4 won, 15 drawn, 7 lost in 26 matches163 won, 354 drawn, 163 lost in 680 matches
2+ goals up after 80 minutes22 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 22 matches403 won, 5 drawn, 1 lost in 409 matches
Level after 80 minutes4 won, 15 drawn, 5 lost in 24 matches124 won, 386 drawn, 124 lost in 634 matches
Level after 15 minutes23 won, 16 drawn, 24 lost in 63 matches609 won, 452 drawn, 609 lost in 1670 matches
Level after 30 minutes16 won, 15 drawn, 18 lost in 49 matches423 won, 382 drawn, 423 lost in 1228 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreNottingham ForestLeague sides
All matches27 scored, 33 conceded (89)867 scored, 867 conceded (2392)
When leading after 75 minutes15 scored, 11 conceded (35)309 scored, 326 conceded (873)
When level after 75 minutes4 scored, 8 conceded (24)232 scored, 232 conceded (646)
When trailing after 75 minutes8 scored, 14 conceded (30)326 scored, 309 conceded (873)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 46 times, equalised within 15 minutes 12, by full time 19(league sides: 1,348 times, within 15 minutes 228, by full time 647)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 21 Oct 2024

Crystal PalaceNottingham Forest
74Matches with xG74
117.93xG for91.32
93Goals scored103
101.14xG against103.69
103Goals conceded96

Crystal Palace

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Crystal Palace: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
20 Sep 2026at Leeds1.061.310–0
12 Sep 2026v Ipswich0.621.672–3
5 Sep 2026at Fulham1.973.143–2
28 Aug 2026v Manchester City0.662.211–4
22 Aug 2026at Everton1.961.120–2
24 May 2026v Arsenal0.982.531–2
17 May 2026at Brentford1.721.712–2
13 May 2026at Manchester City0.731.660–3
10 May 2026v Everton2.561.592–2
3 May 2026at Bournemouth0.892.080–3

Nottingham Forest

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Nottingham Forest: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
19 Sep 2026v Coventry1.100.670–1
12 Sep 2026at Aston Villa2.280.822–1
5 Sep 2026v Tottenham0.921.060–0
29 Aug 2026at Liverpool2.301.752–2
22 Aug 2026v Leeds0.660.470–1
24 May 2026v Bournemouth1.730.951–1
17 May 2026at Manchester United1.884.572–3
10 May 2026v Newcastle1.101.481–1
4 May 2026at Chelsea2.052.153–1
24 Apr 2026at Sunderland1.100.705–0

This league season

Premier League matches since 21 Aug 2026.

Crystal PalaceNottingham Forest
5 of 5Matches with xG5 of 5
4Points in those matches5
5.05xPts8.40
6.27xG for7.26
9.45xG against4.77

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • Crystal PalaceCrystal PalaceA. Disasi (Red Card) · D. Henderson (Foot Injury) · J. Mateta (Hamstring Injury) · C. Riad (Knee Injury) · T. Tomiyasu (Calf Injury)
  • Nottingham ForestNottingham ForestIgor Jesus (Calf Injury) · N. Milenkovic (Knee Injury) · N. Savona (Knee Injury)

Published 11 Oct 2026, 13:38 BST · not changed since

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